The Cubs should extend Moisés Ballesteros

One of the early tendencies of the 2026 MLB season has been a flurry of exercise by groups locking up younger expertise through extensions. It’s a pattern that dates back to early last season when the Red Sox signed Garrett Crochet and Kristian Campbell within the early going earlier than the Padres locked up 2024’s Rookie of the Year runner up, Jackson Merrill by way of 2034. That trend has only accelerated in 2026 with a flurry of contract extensions for rookie gamers and a few guys who’ve but to make their massive league debut in line with MLB.com:

In 2025, three gamers — the Orioles’ Samuel Basallo and Red Sox teammates Roman Anthony and Kristian Campbell — inked long-term contract extensions quickly after making their MLB debuts. And now in 2026, 4 extra gamers have signed early extensions, two of them earlier than even debuting within the massive leagues:

The Cubs have joined the frenzy of extensions this season, signing long-term offers with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner. They should actually go all in and be a part of the youth motion, extending rookie hitting prodigy Moisés Ballesteros.

There’s been plenty of hypothesis as to the causes of early extension-palooza, however it appears fairly clear this can be a knock on impact of subsequent yr’s looming Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations. As Ken Rosenthal wrote earlier this month for The Athletic (emphasis mine):

Teams solely award extensions to gamers they challenge will outperform the contracts, producing surplus worth. Owners crave value certainty, particularly close to the tip of a collective-bargaining settlement. And the expiration of the present CBA on Dec. 1 gives much more incentive for MLB franchises to lock up younger expertise.

Among many potentialities, the homeowners would possibly attempt to tempt the gamers into accepting a wage cap by providing free company sooner than the present six-year mark. The Seattle Mariners, within the eight-year, $95 million deal they awarded infielder Colt Emerson on Tuesday, purchased out a minimal of two free-agent years, and as many as three in the event that they train a membership possibility. The extra management can be much more invaluable if gamers within the subsequent CBA can hit the open market sooner.

Even if the CBA stays unchanged, the Mariners will come out forward if Emerson’s extension proves a discount, as these offers typically do. For each Scott Kingery or Evan White who underperforms his contract — each these gamers signed six-year, $24 million extensions with three membership choices within the late 2010s — there are quite a few others whose below-market offers save their groups numerous hundreds of thousands.

Rosenthal goes on to conclude that MLB will see extra prospects prolonged within the coming months, which brings us to Ballesteros.

The solely query actually remaining in regards to the 22-year-old Venezuelan hitter is will he discover a place sometime? The bat appears actual and it’s spectacular. Yes, it’s early. Yes, he’s younger. And, check out his 15-game rolling wOBA by way of his younger profession:

I can hear the objections now: baseball is tough, he’s solely 22 years previous, the place will he play long-term? I positively am sympathetic to all of that. And whereas I’ll concede that 108 MLB plate appearances is a minuscule pattern measurement, this appears like a particular bat.

Ballesteros is slashing .316/.389/.495 with 4 residence runs by way of his first 35 video games within the league. Oh, and, these numbers are being drawn down by a sluggish begin to his profession in 2025 and that blip of a downturn at first of the 2026 season.

To be clear, there have been plenty of scorching begins to MLB careers that turned out to be flashes within the proverbial pan. Who may overlook the harm Aristides Aquino did to Cubs pitching as soon as upon a nightmare? Or the new begin Jorge Soler obtained off to in 2014? Ballesteros is a class distinction and the Cubs should extend him for 3 causes:

First, the 22-year-old has rapidly mastered each degree {of professional} ball he’s performed at to date. He’s additionally completed so whereas being comparatively younger age for his age degree. Take a take a look at this desk I put collectively final yr comparing Ballesteros age-to-level with Royals catcher Salvador Perez:

Perez got here up earlier than the minor leagues have been reorganized so the degrees don’t neatly match, however for our functions at present this gives the best comparability doable. If something, Ballesteros has come up by way of a tougher minor league system structurally than Perez, which makes it notably placing that he’s a greater participant offensively by mainly each metric. As I wrote on the time:

There’s rather a lot to like in these numbers, particularly when you think about that Salvador Perez has has put collectively a 14-season profession as a bat-first catcher and franchise participant for the Kansas City Royals. Perez has hit .266/.302/.455 with 275 residence runs over that point and established himself as top-of-the-line hitting catchers in MLB. There are some key variations, nonetheless.

First, Ballesteros has been higher at getting on base than Salvy throughout his minor league profession so far. Lots higher. It reveals in each the OBP comparability and the wOBA comparability. As a reminder, wOBA is a elaborate on-base share that offers hitters extra credit score for further base hits than singles or walks.

Second, I anticipated Perez to have demonstrated extra energy throughout his minor league profession. I used to be unsuitable. Perez had 20 residence runs between his age-17 season and his callup at 21. Ballesteros has 50. Yes, you learn that proper, Ballesteros has greater than twice the variety of residence runs Salvador Perez had at this level in his profession. Some of that’s absolutely the variety of plate appearances, Ballesteros has extra within the minors than Perez does. However, he doesn’t have double the variety of plate appearances. Perez had 1,344 plate appearances previous to his name up. Ballesteros has 1,578 previous to his name up. It stays to be seen if Ballesteros’ energy will translate to MLB, however it’s a positive minor league comparability nonetheless.

The level is, this isn’t a scorching begin within the majors, this can be a observe report of elite hitting at each degree that’s presently being matched on the highest degree of baseball that exists.

Second, it’s true that Ballesteros doesn’t have defensive match proper now, however the wRC+ numbers he’s posted all through his profession would make sense to lock up even when he winds up a delegated hitter all through his profession. So far in his younger profession Ballesteros has a 147 wRC+ together with a .383 wOBA. Obviously the train I’m about to embark in is approach too early hypothesis, nonetheless, enable me to throw out the names of some guys who have been primarily DH’s all through their profession with related wRC+ and wOBA numbers: Edgar Martinez (147, .405), David Ortiz (140, .392), Giancarlo Stanton (136, .369). Admittedly, these are most likely ninetieth percentile outcomes and Ballesteros hasn’t demonstrated anyplace close to the facility ceiling any of these hitters had over their careers, however the ceiling is attractive all the identical.

That mentioned, what if he’s “only” Kyle Schwarber (127, .360) or J.D. Martinez (130, .365)? Both strike me as the kind of hitter who’s elite sufficient that their bat will stay within the lineup as a main designated hitter. Both additionally strike me as the kind of hitter a staff should attempt to signal earlier than the price of the contract skyrockets.

Finally, whereas it’s so early to dream on what might be with Ballesteros, he’s already demonstrated a reasonably outstanding capability to adapt to the league. Brett Taylor of Bleacher Nation wrote this on April 6:

As I watched Moises Ballesteros swing by way of a fastball approach above the strike zone within the ninth inning of the sport two loss yesterday, I assumed to myself: Has he been doing that greater than he did final yr? Is this one of many league’s offseason changes?

It was by no means a query of whether or not the league would discover new and other ways to assault Ballesteros this yr. It was only a query of how rapidly Ballesteros may determine them out and modify. We knew this coming into the season, provided that golf equipment had a whole offseason to run the info, and provided that Ballesteros was now carrying the mantel of expected-run-producer within the Cubs’ lineup, quite than merely being a late-season call-up/fill-in man. This league is hard on younger hitters.

There have been legitimate causes for concern as of April 6. However, check out Ballesteros’ stats by way of April 5 in contrast with April 6 by way of yesterday:

Those aren’t sustainable numbers and the actual Ballesteros lives someplace between these two poles, however that could be a demonstrable adjustment to the league adjusting to him. It’s intriguing to say the least and spectacular given his observe report within the minors.

There aren’t any ensures in baseball. Perhaps Ballesteros is a J.D. Martinez DH within the making, maybe he’s a flash within the pan like Aristedes Aquino. But the ceiling of a David Ortiz, the observe report within the minors and the prowess he’s proven in his transient MLB profession lead me to consider this can be a participant the Cubs should spend money on now. His lack of a present residence defensively should make it cheaper to purchase out his early years than any of the contracts cited by MLB.com above. That’s a possible steal for the Cubs and a deal Jed Hoyer and Carter Hawkins should take into account making now, earlier than Ballesteros has grown into his energy and whereas the CBA constraints give Ballesteros the incentives to say sure.