Welcome to Week Three of our Patience or Panic sequence! Here, we check out three struggling gamers and supply suggestions on the best way to react to their sluggish begins and subpar efficiency. This week, we’re staying on the corners of the infield.
Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners
Ask anybody what the key sauce of the 2025 Seattle Mariners was, and also you’d get totally different solutions: Elite pitching, Cal Raleigh’s historic marketing campaign. Outfielder Julio Rodríguez would garner some votes. But the dyed-in-the-wool, ear-to-the-ground fan may level out another person: First baseman Josh Naylor. Naylor was such a precedence that he was one of many M’s first signings this winter, re-joining the membership on a five-year, $92.5 million pact.
Now, although, in case you requested what’s holding the 2026 Mariners again, there could be one consensus reply: Naylor.
Naylor’s already been visited on this column, however with a bigger pattern dimension and fewer adjustments, he’s due for a reappraisal. Why? Because Naylor isn’t simply having a foul begin. He’s not barely under his requirements. He is among the worst hitters in MLB. No joke. He is hitting .102/.197/.102 with a .299 OPS and a -5 wRC+. -5! That determine is third-worst in all of baseball! Naylor’s .299 OPS and -0.6 fWAR trail only Marcell Ozuna. It’s, effectively, unhealthy.
But what is definitely going improper? That’s a tough query to reply. His SO% is in keeping with his profession percentages. He’s really strolling extra in comparison with final yr. His Barrel% principally checks out. Even his batted ball information is analogous, albeit with a lower in his FB%. In different phrases, every little thing appears nice.
What isn’t is Naylor’s energy. Naylor’s by no means been a prolific energy hitter, however he’s all the time had some pop, with three 20+ dwelling run seasons in his previous. This yr, Naylor has zero. Zilch. He doesn’t also have a double. His ISO clocks in at .000, tying him for the worst in MLB. He’s like a restaurant in a lonely city: Singles solely.
Yet he shouldn’t be. Naylor’s anticipated slugging proportion, in line with Baseball Savant, is .338. A quantity far nearer to common. His wOBA and xwOBA additionally present a discrepancy, with the previous a paltry .138, and the latter being .273. Both of those numbers could be even increased if Naylor raised his batting common. That is the one concern right here. Naylor’s anticipated batting common is .225. A far cry from his present .102, sure, but in addition effectively faraway from a .295 common in 2025 and his .308 common in 2023.
The Verdict: Wait this out. All information suggests Naylor is extra unfortunate than he’s unhealthy. It, alongside together with his profession numbers and trajectory, factors to this as a blip; An aberration. Things ought to swing again within the different course. If not, effectively, anticipate to see him make a 3rd look on this column.
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
Going from a former Diamondback to a present Diamondback, let’s speak about Nolan Arenado.
Arenado is one other participant struggling. Hard. The 34-year-old is hitting .180/.192/.200 with a .392 OPS, and a 7 wRC+. It’s not nice. Neither are another numbers: A 25.0 Ok% to a 1.9 BB%, zero dwelling runs, one extra-base hit.
What’s most regarding is Arenado’s energy. Though by no means Giancarlo Stanton, Arenado hit 40 dwelling runs at Coors, and roughly 30 whereas with St. Louis. He was a reliable middle-of-the-order bat. All whereas nonetheless getting his singles and doubles. These previous few years, singles and doubles are all Arenado has hit. His HR% has dropped year-by-year, his ISO both goes down or solely barely up, and the identical goes for his Hard-Hit% and exit velocity. He has no juice, and in some way, even lower than that in 2026.
Arenado isn’t barreling balls, hitting them onerous, or on the candy spot. His bat velocity is mediocre. Even Arenado’s protection is lower than it was. In the phrases of Bob Dylan, “Everything is Broken.”
Verdict: Run. It brings nobody any enjoyment of saying Arenado’s finest days are behind him. Alas, it’s true. The hope was {that a} change of surroundings, a sojourn in Arizona, may change that. It hasn’t. If 2026 is any indication, it gained’t. Arenado’s worth is in title solely.
Michael Busch, 1B, Chicago Cubs
Plenty has gone improper for the 2026 Chicago Cubs to date: Injuries, unhealthy luck, and a principally inexplosive offense. There are loads of folks in charge for the latter. For now, let’s have a look at one wrongdoer: First baseman Michael Busch.
Busch broke out in 2025. He hit .261/.343/.523 with an .866 OPS and a 140 wRC+. He clubbed 34 dwelling runs, 90 RBIs, and 274 complete bases. Previously acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers, he rapidly grew to become the one which bought away.
Now, the Cubs couldn’t give Busch away. The anticipated slugger is hitting .135/.233/.173 with a .406 OPS and a 25 wRC+. He has zero dwelling runs, simply three RBIs, and two doubles account for his solely extra-base hits this season. Recently, he was 0-for-his-last-30. He is a fraction of his former self.
The simple analysis for hitters like Busch, energy bats plugged in at first base, is that they’re leaning into their very own stereotype. They’re attempting to be Albert Pujols, Mark McGwire, or Harmon Killebrew. They’re chasing, putting out, and desirous to stroll the entire diamond directly fairly than transfer from base to base. That’s not Busch’s difficulty. He’s really putting out lower than he did in 2025 regardless of an elevated Chase%. He is just not attempting to play whack-a-mole.
So, what’s he attempting to do? The higher query is what Busch is attempting and failing to do. When Busch succeeded in 2024 and 2025, he did so with line drives. He carried a 20.5 LD% in 2024 and an improved 22.0 LD% in 2025. And when he made contact, he did so with authority, with common exit velocities of 89.9 and 92.2 MPH. None of that is the case anymore. Busch’s exit velocity is down from 92.2 to 86.5, a complete 5.7 MPH. His LD% can also be in decline, at present at 17.1%. Conversely, Busch has seen his GB% spike from 35.8% to 43.9% this season. He isn’t placing the ball within the air.
Unlike Naylor, this isn’t simply unhealthy luck, both. His anticipated stats stand within the seventh percentile or decrease, in line with Baseball Savant. Likewise, he’s within the thirty third percentile in Barrel%, thirty second in Hard-Hit%, and tenth in LA Sweet-Spot. His complete swing is out of whack. Contrast these numbers with 2025, when Busch completed within the ninety fifth, 76th, and 96th percentiles in those self same classes.
The Verdict: Keep tabs however preserve the religion. Busch is simply too proficient and achieved a hitter to chop. Odds are he’ll discover himself. Maybe snapping his hitless streak on Sunday would be the spark.
