Laurence Edmondson
Multiple Authors
With a lead of fifty factors within the drivers’ standings and extra wins than all of his rivals mixed within the first 11 races, Kimi Antonelli is the clear favorite to win this yr’s title going into the second half of the yr. The 19-year-old was F1’s standout performer up till the summer season break and his Mercedes group has delivered the perfect automobile and engine mixture below Formula 1’s new rules for 2026.
But with not less than 11 races left to run (12 if the ultimate two rounds of the yr within the Middle East go forward) and not less than 291 factors accessible to anyone driver, is there anyone who can mount a severe problem to Antonelli?
– Dutch Grand Prix 2026: Race start time, how to watch
– The records Kimi Antonelli could break
– The surprises, talking points and battles shaping the season
Race wins in 2026: One
Points behind: 50
Bookies odds: 6/1
Of all of the challengers on this listing, Hamilton is taken into account the almost definitely to dethrone Antonelli on the high of the standings by the top of the season. That’s partly as a result of he is the closest within the championship, but additionally as a result of he has the expertise of seven profitable title campaigns in his locker. The 50-point hole just isn’t insignificant, however may very well be halved in a single weekend with a repeat of the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix when Hamilton received and a automobile difficulty compelled Antonelli to retire.
Even so, Hamilton’s title probabilities will relaxation largely on Ferrari’s capacity to ship one other step in efficiency within the second half of the yr. The Italian group made substantial progress with aerodynamic upgrades within the first half of the yr, main Mercedes group boss Toto Wolff to query whether or not it will be capable to preserve that stage of progress with out breaching the price range cap within the second half.
The key space that Ferrari should enhance is its energy unit, with Hamilton estimating his automobile was giving freely as a lot as 0.4 seconds in straight-line efficiency alone at some races this season. Ferrari has already used one among its two engine efficiency upgrades granted below the ADUO system earlier this yr, however is assured extra efficiency will come from the following one. Whatever it delivers will seemingly be the important thing to Hamilton placing the stress on Antonelli and figuring out whether or not he can forge a severe problem for this yr’s title
Race wins in 2026: Two
Points behind: 59
Bookies odds: 18/1
It could be straightforward to level to George Russell’s appalling luck as the principle motive he finds himself up to now adrift of Antonelli on the midway stage of the season, however even by his personal admission he hasn’t been fast sufficient to compete together with his Mercedes teammate. The extra senior of the Mercedes pairing has struggled to adapt to the calls for of the 2026 ruleset and located himself repeatedly off the tempo of his 19-year-old teammate.
Russell is aware of that pattern wants to vary when racing will get underway once more in Zandvoort this weekend, however even with the higher hand over Antonelli he’ll nonetheless want a little bit of luck to shut the 59-point hole earlier than the top of the yr. Overhauling a championship lead of that dimension in a rival automobile with a efficiency benefit is one factor, however doing it in equal equipment is one other.
Race wins in 2026: One
Points behind: 81
Bookies odds: 22/1
In the three races earlier than the summer season break, Charles Leclerc outscored each different driver within the championship (together with Antonelli by 11 factors) as he lastly began to click on with the 2026 Ferrari. The drawback for Leclerc is what number of factors he dropped previous to these three races, together with the run of the three earlier than that by which he scored simply 4 factors.
It appears Leclerc is beginning to come to phrases with the calls for of the 2026 rules, however it’s almost definitely too little too late to mount a severe title problem. Above all else, he’s 31 factors behind teammate Hamilton, that means that if Ferrari does shut the efficiency hole to Mercedes within the second half of the yr, Leclerc is second in line to make the most of it. It would take one thing very particular from the Monegasque (and one thing cataclysmically dangerous from each Hamilton and Antonelli) for Leclerc to win it from right here.
Race wins in 2026: One
Points behind: 91
Bookies odds: 25/1
After his win in Hungary simply earlier than the summer season break, the reigning world champion hinted that he nonetheless believes there’s a shot at retaining his title in 2026. Maybe it was the heady mixture of adrenaline and podium champagne in his system, however he mentioned there was hope to be taken from McLaren’s sudden return to the entrance.
“The pressure is on him [Antonelli] for sure,” he informed Sky Sports. “There’s no pressure on me. I’ve been feeling very confident.
“They [Mercedes] have made extra errors as a group and now we have made much less and now we have come robust however I anticipate them to nonetheless win races and anticipate us to win extra races. We simply have to be good from right here on now for the entire yr.
“We need to improve the car still,” Norris mentioned when requested about combating for a title. “We were certainly the quickest in Hungary from qualifying to the race. Not every race is going to be this simple, so we need to work hard to try to get the car to be this everywhere.
“If we are able to, perhaps that could be a real query.”
The odds are certainly slim, but if the McLaren emerges as the fastest car in the second half of the year and Mercedes continues to struggle with reliability, perhaps there’s an outside chance.
Race wins in 2026: Zero
Points behind: 110
Bookies odds: 40/1
If the 2025 season taught us anything it’s that we should never rule out Max Verstappen. After last year’s Dutch Grand Prix, he was 104-points off championship leader Oscar Piastri and he completed the season 11 factors forward of the Australian — albeit nonetheless two factors shy of eventual champion Norris.
But there are some massive variations to 2025. This time final yr, Verstappen already had two wins to his identify and sat third within the championship. This yr he has but to win and is presently sixth. What’s extra, solely McLaren and Red Bull had been severe contenders for the title in 2025, whereas this yr Verstappen is within the fourth quickest automobile behind McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes.
If — and this can be a large ‘if’ — Red Bull emerge from the summer season break with a transparent efficiency benefit over its rivals, you would not wager in opposition to Verstappen doing the remainder and hauling in all 5 of the drivers forward of him. But given all the things we have seen up to now in 2026, and the very fact Red Bull was not granted any engine upgrades below the ADUO guidelines, the 110-point deficit appears too massive to beat. Even for Max Verstappen.