College football predictions for the 2026 season: Conference picks, surprises, disappointments and national championship winners

The first full week of college football has arrived — and with it comes considered one of the most loaded slates of the season.

But earlier than we get to Week 1, we now have to prognosticate on the way it’ll all play out this season. Will Arch Manning ship at Texas earlier than driving off to the NFL? Will Lane Kiffin get it completed in Year 1 at LSU? Who will probably be hoisting the national championship trophy in Sin City in January?

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Our crew of faculty football specialists breaks all of it down with their annual predictions, selecting convention winners, title sport matchups, surprises, disappointments and extra.

Feel free to disagree, or to make your individual picks in the feedback under.

Against the backdrop of maybe the most unsettling and chaotic off-the-field circumstances in the trade’s historical past, the 2026 season will make us all, not less than for 4 months, neglect about all these pesky switch, compensation and eligibility points! Maybe. Two huge manufacturers — Notre Dame and Texas — assembly for all of it in Sin City itself. What a spectacle it will be: Arch Manning vs. CJ Carr; Steve Sarkisian’s offensive exploits towards defensive guru Marcus Freeman; and two fan bases of faculty football giants hungry for their first title in a long time.

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In the ACC, Miami nonetheless reigns supreme, however be careful for the upstart Hokies underneath new coach James Franklin. Out West, Oregon advances to the national semifinals after profitable the Big Ten title and Texas Tech returns to the playoff regardless of the absence of QB Brendan Sorsby. The Hoosiers take a step again, however do not rely out Curt Cignetti for the lengthy haul. They’ll be again.

The Ducks QB, Dante Moore, beats out Arch for the prime prize in the sport, and Boise State’s Spencer Danielson turns one other playoff run into, maybe, a much bigger job throughout this yr’s teaching carousel. Speaking of that, anticipate a couple of huge openings in the head-coaching world and some whopping buyouts paid, particularly down in Tallahassee.

I’ll be frank; I believe any of the top seven teams in our preseason top 25 are able to profitable the national title. It appears like a really wide-open yr that may very well be schedule dependent; there will probably be a crew that’s under-seeded in the College Football Playoff as a result of it had a highway loss that others did not.

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But I’m going with Oregon as a result of the Ducks look the most well-built of anybody to win the title this yr. It’s onerous to purchase arguments about groups having a tough time getting over the hump after a program like Indiana gained the national title a season in the past. History hardly issues once you’re coping with trendy school football.

Oregon’s defensive position ought to be electrical and Dante Moore is considered one of the greatest quarterbacks in the nation. The Ducks’ potential regular-season success is why Moore is my choose for the Heisman, although I might see an SEC title serving to Arch Manning’s case for the award.

If Texas would not get it completed this yr — or would not not less than make the semifinals of the CFP — I believe huge questions will probably be requested of Steve Sarkisian. The similar goes for Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer and USC’s Lincoln Riley. Ten wins and the playoff looks like the naked minimal for them.

Outside of the Big Ten and the SEC, I’ll be shocked if anybody exterior the state of Utah places up a combat towards Texas Tech in the Big 12, and Louisville and SMU seem like the strongest challengers to Miami in the ACC. Oklahoma State is my shock crew as a result of I believe the Cowboys are able to an eight-win season with all the North Texas assist that migrated up I-35 to Stillwater, and that is most likely going to be the finish of the highway for Mike Norvell at Florida State.

Get prepared, bandwagon jumpers, as a result of the unique bandwagon crew — Notre Dame — is about to barrel again into the national highlight. Between a manageable early schedule, the lack of a convention title sport roadblock, and some critically wounded pleasure after final season, that is the yr Notre Dame will get it collectively and busts via a crowded subject at the prime of the CFP.

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And talking of packages that missed out on the 2025 playoff: Steve Sarkisian and Texas will as soon as once more disappoint regardless of a loaded roster. Florida State was the benchmark for money-can’t-buy-happiness in the NIL/portal period; Texas is about to take that crown … and no different.

As for Lane Kiffin and LSU, nicely — the man would not have an issue dwelling with all eyes on him, and this yr he’ll start constructing the basis of a program that is going to be a major problem for the SEC for years to return … or till he is enticed away to one more job, whichever.

Dante Moore will give Oregon followers a tiny little bit of pleasure amid one more heartbreak; the Ducks, Ohio State, Indiana and USC will pummel one another bloody in the Big Ten. Georgia and Oklahoma will duke it out in the SEC, with A&M and Ole Miss not far behind. (Don’t get your hopes up this yr, Tide followers.) Miami and Texas Tech will put substantial distance between themselves and the remainder of their conferences.

And, after all, all of this will probably be laughably improper by Oct.1, through which case I’ll deny ever writing it. 

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Of my dark horses this season, Louisville might be the smallest attain. Granted Miami may showcase considered one of the greatest offenses in the nation this yr, however the Hurricanes’ defensive turnover amongst their entrance six is a priority (filling the void left by first-round picks Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor isn’t any straightforward feat). Plus, Miami has to play Notre Dame and Clemson; Louisville doesn’t. And on a possible path to the ACC title sport, the Cardinals dodge the Hurricanes as nicely. I’m betting on Ohio State switch quarterback Lincoln Kienholz realizing his potential underneath Jeff Brohm, who virtually has a Ph.D. in the portal by now and has gained 28 video games in his first three seasons operating the program.

I tapped Kansas State to emerge from the Big 12 final season. Hand up, I used to be improper, however I’m operating again that choose anyway. I haven’t got confidence in Texas Tech or BYU profitable the league this time round. The NIL conflict chest got here via for the Red Raiders in 2025; nevertheless, efficiently changing 9 NFL draft picks stays difficult irrespective of how a lot cash you have got. Sure, Texas Tech reloaded, and its protection may very well be gnarly once more … and the Red Raiders’ schedule is a godsend. I simply cannot ignore the quarterback scenario in Lubbock. As for the Cougars, they’ve a extra rigorous slate and have not gained 10-plus video games in three straight seasons since they stacked 4 of these campaigns from 2006-09. Back to Ok-State: I’m nonetheless a believer in Avery Johnson, and who higher to maximise his dual-threat talent set than new head coach Collin Klein? Their work collectively in 2023 teased what could be.

I went chalk for the Big Ten and SEC. That doesn’t suggest I’ve Ohio State and Georgia reaching the national championship, although. I’m penciling in a pair of at-large bids to make up the title sport: Oregon and Texas. Arch Manning will win the Heisman Trophy, but Oregon’s Dante Moore will hoist the CFP trophy, giving the Ducks their long-awaited crown.

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By the method, be careful for Bob Chesney’s UCLA. The Bruins might win eight or 9 video games proper out of the gates underneath his management. Oh, and I’m not anticipating some Year 1 faceplant from Lane Kiffin. Drama apart, LSU ought to be greater than superb, due to offensive fireworks and some key parts of defensive continuity, together with coordinator Blake Baker.

There’s no must overthink the ACC. Despite famously by no means profitable the ACC title since becoming a member of the league in 2004, Miami has the greatest roster and a really manageable schedule. They’ve additionally bought quite a lot of confidence and momentum coming off final season. Yes, Mario Cristobal’s groups have discovered methods to shoot themselves in the foot earlier than. But it might be an enormous shock if the Hurricanes aren’t in the ACC championship sport.

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In the Big 12, I’m skeptical Texas Tech will probably be as dominant because it was final season. That was a really particular group on protection, and the fallout from the Brendan Sorsby fiasco leaves some query marks at quarterback. For that purpose, I’ll go a distinct path and take Houston. Getting the Cougars to 10-3 final season was an enormous achievement for Willie Fritz. There’s sufficient to love with the program trajectory and continuity at key positions — together with quarterback Conner Weigman having a second yr in the system — to take a flier on the Cougars right here.

With the Big Ten, it is unusual how little dialog has centered on Indiana — you recognize, the defending national champ? The Hoosiers are completely loaded. Again. Though there’s most likely not a ton of separation amongst the Big Ten’s prime few groups, Indiana ought to be convention favourite due to its schedule. Having Ohio State and USC each at house provides the Hoosiers a slight benefit, notably if there are tiebreakers that impression the Big Ten title sport.

In the SEC, Ole Miss has the most incentive to essentially lock in on attending to Atlanta. Though issues are extra settled in Oxford now in comparison with the chaos of Lane Kiffin’s exit final December, you need to assume it nonetheless motivates that locker room to maintain profitable with out him. Plus, Ole Miss has by no means performed in the SEC championship sport, so making it there can be an actual legacy marker for quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, operating again Kewan Lacy and the remainder of a veteran, well-balanced roster. I even have extra confidence in the tradition at Ole Miss than Texas, for occasion, the place the vibes popping out of fall camp have been bizarre.

For the Group of Six, Boise State is the choose however there’s an opportunity the Broncos are out of the playoff race by Week 2. That’s the risk-reward of opening the season with a sport at Oregon, adopted by an enormous G6 conflict at house towards Memphis. We can assume Boise State goes to maintain issues rolling in its new league as a result of that is what the Broncos have completed each time they’ve modified conferences. Spencer Danielson introduced again sufficient on offense, notably up entrance and with quarterback Maddux Madsen, that Boise ought to rating quite a lot of factors towards opponents of comparable expertise.

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Biggest shock

After a latest journey to UCLA, I’m satisfied the Bruins will shock lots of people and win 9 video games. Bob Chesney has a superb monitor report as a head coach and he is a man who can single-handedly change the vitality of a program. UCLA was actually overwhelmed down by the Deshaun Foster expertise, and it is clear the gamers there have embraced a distinct method. Chesney, like Curt Cignetti did at Indiana, additionally introduced a number of gamers with him from James Madison to immediately stabilize the roster and fill holes. And perhaps now that he is in a extra steady teaching scenario, this will probably be the yr Nico Iamaleava lives as much as the potential that made him a blue-chip recruit.

Biggest disappointment

The timing of the Brent Venables contract extension at Oklahoma was unusual — so unusual that I wonder if there’s some inner doubt about this yr’s crew and the extension was new AD Roger Denny’s method of averting any hot-seat discuss if issues go south. Though the Sooners have a straightforward opener towards UTEP, a visit to Michigan in Week 2 actually has the potential to go sideways. A Week 3 sport towards New Mexico and that glorious teaching employees is harmful. Then it is a journey to Georgia, adopted by Texas in a sport Oklahoma has struggled badly in the final two years. The center a part of the season is simpler, however ending with Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri is brutal. Oklahoma managed to get to 10-2 final yr, however it by no means felt like there was a lot margin for error. This will probably be the yr they want some.

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Heisman winner

In the pre-NIL days, Oregon’s Dante Moore would have sprinted out of faculty football final season and secured his thousands and thousands as a top-five choose in the NFL Draft. Now, these stay-or-go choices might be extra strategic — and Moore had good causes to return again by way of growth and maybe avoiding an NFL crew he did not wish to go to (cough, Jets, cough). The Heisman case for Moore is due to this fact simple. Not solely was he virtually at that degree a yr in the past, however he comes again with extra expertise and a ton of expertise round him.

National champ

At lengthy final, that is the yr Nike founder Phil Knight will have a good time a national title for his beloved Ducks. Though Oregon has had its season led to blowout trend every of the final two years, only a few coaches win all of it with out taking some postseason lumps first. Dan Lanning has gone via that development and now heads into Year 5 with an awesome mixture of expertise and expertise that matches the method they wish to play. Oregon is solely constructed the proper method, with a heavy emphasis on physicality at the line of scrimmage, and they have been so dang constant underneath Lanning that sooner or later they’re sure to knock the door down. This may very well be the yr.

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LSU’s report

Anyone anticipating Lane Kiffin to fall on his face at LSU is not dwelling in actuality. He’s an excellent coach with quite a lot of sources who wins an entire bunch of video games. But it is also not going to be a completely easy trip, particularly in Year 1. Having Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M on their SEC schedule is amongst the hardest attracts in the league, and there is a purpose why Kiffin has pushed so onerous so as to add gamers getting waived from NFL coaching camps. He is aware of they want extra expertise to reside as much as the loopy expectations that got here to Baton Rouge the second he signed a contract with $13 million per season. It’s at all times fascinating round Lane, however this appears like a considerably ho-hum 9-3.