Zach Kram
Multiple Authors
There have not been many surprises in the primary week of the 2026 NBA postseason. The No. 7 and eight groups in every convention superior by way of the play-in event. In the primary weekend of the true playoffs, house groups gained seven of the eight Game 1s — and by a median of 17.7 factors. Only one recreation all weekend was determined by single digits.
But that single-digit recreation was a semi-surprise, because the fourth-seeded Los Angeles Lakers defeated the fifth-seeded Houston Rockets. Even with Houston’s main scorer, Kevin Durant, lacking Game 1, the Lakers had been underdogs at house as a result of they had been lacking their prime two scorers in Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves.
Out of 16 NBA consultants from ESPN who picked a winner in the sequence, 15 selected Houston.
Yet behind 27 factors from Luke Kennard and a near-triple-double from 41-year-old LeBron James, the Lakers outclassed the visiting Rockets. Houston by no means led by greater than two factors, whereas the Lakers constructed their benefit all the best way as much as 16 earlier than successful by 9.
That end result could shift the course of the sequence. And it raised huge questions on a Rockets workforce that could face turmoil and roster turnover this summer time if it falls brief towards an injury-wracked Lakers squad.
But on nearer examination, the Lakers’ Game 1 victory may need been a fluke, their obvious domination a mirage. Underlying stats and up to date playoff historical past provide warning indicators for the victorious Lakers — and a purpose for calm and endurance for the Rockets — because the squads put together for an important Game 2 on Tuesday.
Let’s discover how the Lakers set a few shooting records in Game 1 — and why, counterintuitively, which may be good news for the Rockets.
Shotmaking versus shot high quality
Despite the absence of Doncic and Reaves, the Lakers’ offense was unstoppable on Saturday. Their efficient area purpose share — which adjusts for the additional worth of 3-pointers — was 68.2%. That’s a franchise document in the playoffs, which is saying one thing on condition that the Lakers have performed essentially the most postseason video games of any workforce.
But in keeping with GeniusIQ monitoring, their quantified shot likelihood — which calculates anticipated eFG% based mostly on components similar to shot location and the shooter’s capacity — in Game 1 was solely 51.5%. The hole between these two numbers is called “shotmaking,” and the Lakers’ plus-16.7% mark is likely one of the highest on document.
For context, throughout the opposite Game 1s this postseason, no different workforce’s shotmaking was even half as good because the Lakers’.
Game 1 shotmaking
More broadly, the final time the Lakers had higher shotmaking in any recreation — common season or playoffs — was in 2018, which is so way back that their main scorers in that contest had been Isaiah Thomas and Julius Randle. The final time the Rockets allowed such scorching shotmaking was 2019, in their memorable 159-158 shootout towards the Washington Wizards.
And in the postseason particularly, the Lakers’ Game 1 shotmaking ranked ninth out of two,086 single-game performances in the playoffs since 2013-14, the beginning of GeniusIQ’s database. It was one of the best mark for any Game 1 in that span.
Los Angeles benefited from extraordinary teamwide overperformance. Out of eight Lakers who tried a shot in Game 1, seven exceeded their quantified shot likelihood, usually by huge margins.
But that is not essentially a optimistic signal for the Lakers’ possibilities going ahead.
A historical past lesson
At the identical time that the Lakers had been setting the nets aflame, Houston was struggling with out Durant. Not solely did the Rockets fail to generate many good appears to be like on offense, they had been much less correct than anticipated on their photographs.
Houston underperformed its anticipated efficient area purpose share by 5.0%, that means the hole between the 2 groups’ shotmaking was a whopping 21.7%. That’s the Thirteenth-highest margin in a playoff recreation since 2013-14 and the second highest in a Game 1.
But the earlier cases of a giant shotmaking disparity ought to be encouraging for Houston.
The document for the biggest shotmaking hole in a Game 1 belongs to the 2016 San Antonio Spurs, who used a 25.0% disparity to open the Western Conference semifinals with a 32-point blowout over Durant’s Oklahoma City Thunder. But the shotmaking evened out over the remainder of the sequence, and the Thunder upset the 67-win Spurs in six video games.
There are quite a few different examples from the previous decade in which a workforce loved an enormous shotmaking disparity in Game 1 however misplaced the sequence anyway. We can go 12 months by 12 months: In 2017, Houston beat San Antonio by 27 factors in Game 1 due to a 17.4% shotmaking hole, however the Spurs superior in six video games; in 2018, the Boston Celtics held an 18.5% shotmaking benefit in Game 1 towards Cleveland, successful by 25 factors, however James’ Cavaliers triumphed in seven; and in 2019, Boston outshot the Bucks in Game 1 and gained by 22 factors, however Milwaukee gained the sequence in 5.
And in 2020, the top-seeded Lakers had been on the opposite finish of a shotmaking hole in their playoff opener, as they surprisingly dropped Game 1 in the bubble towards the eighth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers. But their luck evened out, and James’ Lakers gained the subsequent 4 video games to begin their championship trek.
Teams know to not rely on outlier shotmaking lasting for a number of video games. Reflecting on the 2019 Bucks-Celtics sequence a few years later, a Milwaukee entrance workplace member informed me he’d by no means been anxious, even after his workforce’s Game 1 defeat, as a result of he knew Boston’s single-game shotmaking benefit was unsustainable. Naturally, the Bucks gained 4 straight by 16.3 factors per recreation thereafter.
The Rockets would possibly really feel equally after their Game 1 disappointment. Among all groups in all video games this season, the Lakers’ shot high quality in Game 1 ranked in the sixteenth percentile. The Rockets ought to be proud of that defensive effort — even when the Lakers’ precise eFG% ranked in the 97th percentile.
The Lakers’ historic overperformance meant they scored 22 extra factors than they “should” have, based mostly on their shot high quality. Without that enhance, Houston possible would have gained the sport.
As it’s, even with these 22 “extra” factors, the Lakers’ closing margin of victory was in single digits. That’s uncommon in such a make-or-miss league: For groups with shotmaking gaps of a minimum of 20% in the playoffs since 2013-14, the common margin of victory is 29.9 factors. Those video games are virtually at all times blowouts.
But the Lakers gained by simply 9 factors in Game 1. A win is a win, however historical past suggests they need to’ve gained by much more given their outlier shotmaking benefit.
Margin of victory for groups with giant shotmaking gaps
Improbable, however not unattainable
To be honest, there can be some sign in the shotmaking noise. For occasion, the New York Knicks snuck a Game 1 win towards the Celtics final 12 months due to a seemingly unsustainable shotmaking hole — after which did it once more in Game 2 en path to an upset in capturing the sequence.
It’s not unattainable that the Lakers will comply with that path towards the Rockets. But it’s unbelievable.
Beyond the arc, the Lakers had been 10-for-19 (53%) in Game 1, highlighted by an ideal 5-for-5 displaying from Kennard. But whereas Kennard is an unimaginable shooter — his 44% profession mark from deep is one of the best amongst lively gamers — he is nonetheless more likely to miss some 3s because the sequence continues. He has now tried a minimum of 5 3-pointers in 241 video games in his profession, and Saturday’s was solely the second and not using a miss.
Similarly, the Lakers had been a superb midrange workforce this season, making 49% of their 2-pointers that weren’t in the restricted space, per GeniusIQ. Only the Denver Nuggets had been extra correct. But in Game 1 towards Houston, the Lakers made 65% of these 2-point photographs away from the basket, which is unsustainable over a bigger pattern. The different 15 playoff groups had been all at 50% or worse from these areas over the weekend.
Hot shooting in one playoff recreation is usually random, with no predictive carryover to the subsequent. Teams that outperform their anticipated eFG% by a minimum of 12% in a playoff recreation have a median shotmaking determine of plus-0.01% in their subsequent recreation in the sequence, in keeping with an evaluation of knowledge from GeniusIQ and ESPN Research.
Meanwhile, Houston managed extra replicable statistical classes in Game 1: Because the Rockets grabbed 21 offensive rebounds and nabbed 13 steals towards Los Angeles’ point-guard-less rotation, they tried 93 photographs to the Lakers’ 66. (And it is not as if the Lakers compensated with additional free throws; they had been 17-for-26 on the line as in contrast with 17-for-25 for Houston.)
Winning the possession battle so completely was the Rockets’ method for success in the course of the common season, they usually appear set as much as proceed that technique towards L.A.
Losing Game 1 remains to be a priority for Houston, after all, notably due to the unusual timing round this sequence as a result of all the celebrities’ accidents. Every Lakers win means extra time for Doncic and Reaves to return. And if Durant misses extra time after his shock Game 1 absence, the Rockets could be in hassle no matter L.A.’s shooting; their common shot high quality was even worse than the Lakers’ in Game 1 (although the Rockets rebounded so lots of their very own misses that they nonetheless ought to have scored extra).
Before the sequence, I predicted the Lakers would be surprisingly aggressive towards Houston in spite of their accidents, as James-plus-shooters lineups had been profitable in the common season. But I do not anticipate these shooters to stay historic outliers for many extra video games, and Houston’s protection, which tied for fifth in effectivity in the common season, stays strong.
It may not appear that approach after Game 1’s mismatch, however the Rockets have a transparent path ahead. That begins with the Lakers’ shooting falling again to earth on Tuesday night time.
