Jalen Duren is the most recent free-agent straggler.
Inside a league that’s more and more nervous about costly rosters, NBA groups are squeezing gamers who hit what purports to be the open market. Duren, a restricted free agent, is that this summer time’s personification of the pattern.
Organizations personal the proper of first refusal on restricted free brokers, and since there may be such consternation about excessive payrolls nowadays, they’re deploying vital leverage. With right this moment’s guidelines, not many groups enter the offseason with cap house. The ones who do perceive that extending an offer sheet to a participant of Duren’s caliber is a idiot’s errand, contemplating the Detroit Pistons would possible match it and produce him again, as is their proper.
A restricted free agent, the NBA’s strongest oxymoron, is left in purgatory.
Why Jalen Duren remains to be a free agent
Hunter Patterson and Jeshua Kidd
Last offseason, 4 restricted free brokers (Cam Thomas, Jonathan Kuminga, Josh Giddey and Quentin Grimes) lingered late into summer time, simply as Duren has carried out in 2026. (The Clippers’ Bennedict Mathurin and the Nuggets’ Peyton Watson are the opposite unsigned restricted free brokers of word.) Three weeks after the beginning of free company, Duren stays unsigned. Cap house across the league has dried up. The Pistons present the best likelihood for him to obtain his market worth.
Because he made All-NBA in 2025-26, he’s eligible for a five-year, $287 million contract that might start at 30 % of the wage cap. But Duren, who averaged 19.5 factors and 10.5 rebounds on a No. 1 seed whereas incomes All-NBA honors, actually received’t earn that a lot, not given the circumstances round him. Front places of work are nervous in regards to the punitive penalties that include crossing the second apron, a payroll threshold far above the posh tax. Surpass it, and a workforce loses its potential to execute most kinds of trades and most sorts of signings. Additionally, he had a disappointing playoffs, along with his scoring, rebounding and capturing effectivity all notably dropping.
But Duren and the Pistons want one another. More than possible, they should compromise. One govt believes he has found a becoming one.
The Athletic polled 13 members of rival entrance places of work, asking what they might think about a “fair” contract for Duren. Respondents spoke on the situation of anonymity to debate the state of affairs freely.
The Pistons’ leverage is that no different workforce has the cap house to offer Duren a wealthy contract. But Duren’s leverage is that he can settle for the qualifying offer, which might entail returning to Detroit on a one-year, $9.6 million contract and changing into an unrestricted free agent subsequent summer time, capable of signal with whomever he’d like in 2027.
“While Detroit might look like they have most of the leverage, given that there are no cap-space teams out there, they’re royally f—– if he takes the qualifying (offer) and walks next year,” one respondent to the ballot stated. “So, I think leverage is relatively even.”
Two restricted free brokers, Grimes and Thomas, accepted qualifying gives final offseason. Of course, they didn’t assume as a lot danger as Duren would. Detroit’s present offer to Duren is considerably greater than the Brooklyn Nets’ tiny offer was to Thomas. The Philadelphia 76ers didn’t lengthen a formal offer to Grimes.
One govt believes he’s recognized the fair deal for Duren and the Pistons: $204.5 million over 5 years.
Here is how he got here to that quantity: Hypothetically, if Duren have been to signal the qualifying offer, then have been to garner a four-year deal for the 25-percent max subsequent summer time, he would earn $204.5 million over the following 5 seasons. To save either side a headache, the Pistons may pay him that proper now.
Yet, this exec is on the excessive finish of the ballot; $204.5 million, although it’s far beneath his max, is the second-most assured cash any of the respondents prompt.
The largest proposed deal was $230 million over 5 years. Two executives thought-about $200 million over 5 years to be fair. The two different five-year offers have been for $190 million and $180 million.
The one who prompt the $190 million contract referenced the Pistons’ different priorities from earlier in the summertime, once they have been reportedly making ready to offer guard Austin Reaves a four-year, $177 million contract earlier than he re-upped with the Los Angeles Lakers.
“If they were willing to give a max to Reaves, then they should be willing to do five years, $190 million for a younger player who made All-NBA at a more valuable position,” the respondent stated.
The Pistons have a clear cap sheet transferring ahead. They presently sit $46 million beneath the posh tax. The solely giant wage on their books for 2027-28 and past belongs to MVP candidate Cade Cunningham. Various rotation gamers — similar to Duncan Robinson, John Collins and Isaiah Joe — usually are not assured past 2026-27.
Detroit want to preserve its flexibility. After all, relying on how the Duren state of affairs performs out, it could possibly be a cap-space workforce within the coming years.
This isn’t the primary time that conversations between the Pistons and Duren have stalled. Just final summer time, Duren was eligible for an extension, however the two sides have been so far apart that they never even got into negotiations.
The 22-year-old responded with a breakout season, taking a large leap as a scorer, dealing with the basketball extra, assuming the position of the go-to man with Cunningham out with a collapsed lung for the top a part of the schedule and enhancing as each a paint protector and pick-and-roll defender. Behind him and Cunningham, the Pistons soared to the highest of the Eastern Conference standings.
Then got here a curious playoff efficiency.
Duren’s scoring cratered. His exercise dissipated. A hulking, 6-foot-10 heart who was as soon as not possible to disregard turned uninvolved for lengthy stretches.
The postseason has caught within the minds of some, together with one govt who prompt one other oddly particular contract for Duren: $157.1 million over 4 years. Duren’s four-year, 25-percent max would climb $27 million greater than that. Still, this govt stated he dinged him for his poor play throughout Detroit’s first-round collection towards the Orlando Magic and second-round loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Six different respondents prompt four-year contracts. Three deemed $140 million fair. One was for $135 million; one was for $130 million, and the smallest hypothetical deal, each in complete cash and common annual worth, was $120 million over 4 years.
“The market has kinda shrunk on him,” the chief who proposed $120 million stated. “So, I don’t think you can get above (Walker Kessler’s contract). There’s not a single team that’s willing to do that right now. They could really squeeze (him) and say, $25 million a year, but Duren’s not gonna feel good, which means (they’re) not gonna feel good.”
Of the seven four-year offers, $157.1 million was the most costly. But how did this govt arrive at such an idiosyncratic quantity? It’s the precise midpoint between what Kessler signed for this summer time and the 25-percent max.
The Kessler contract was a widespread reference level for the ballot contributors. Just a few weeks in the past, the fourth-year heart, who is 2 years older than Duren, signed a four-year, $129.4 million contract with the Lakers, who additionally traded two first-round picks to finish the acquisition.
Kessler is a play finisher and rim-protector who has but to contribute to a profitable workforce. Duren, from the identical draft class and taking part in the identical place, is already an All-Star.
“It’s more than Kessler got,” stated one of many contributors who dubbed $140 million fair. “(Duren is) more available and proven. (It’s) in a similar range to (Houston Rockets center) Alperen Şengün, who I view as an All-Star caliber center but not someone who is a consistent year-in and year-out All-Star. And (it’s) slightly below (Rudy) Gobert, who is/was an All-NBA defender.”
The entrance workplace staffer who prompt $130 million over 4 years did so as a result of it was precisely in keeping with the contract for the Lakers’ new heart.
“I can’t see him signing for less than Walker, yet I don’t see why Detroit needs to move beyond that either,” he stated.
As just lately as solely a few years in the past, it was commonplace to dole out large contracts to younger, star-level restricted free brokers. The league adjustments quick.
The kind of max contract a participant is eligible to obtain will depend on how lengthy he’s been within the NBA. Before his seventh season, he could make as much as 25 % of the wage cap. Seven-to-nine-year vets could make as much as 30 % of it. Guys who’ve been round for 10-plus years can earn as much as 35 %.
There are a few exceptions, together with Duren.
Reaching All-NBA in 2025-26 made Duren eligible for the 30-percent max, the five-year, $287 million contract that he actually received’t ink. His 25-percent max, the one which groups as soon as would hand to younger stars with out a lot pushback, could be value $239 million over 5 seasons. Over 4 years, it may earn him $185 million.
But the tradition round these offers has modified. Last summer time, the Oklahoma City Thunder negotiated two core items of a reigning champion, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, all the way down to the 25-percent max on extensions after their third seasons slightly than letting them enter restricted free company after their fourth years. (Williams’ beginning wage would have risen to 30 % had he certified final season.) The Rockets, who’re infamous sticklers in a majority of these moments, bartered Şengün all the way down to a contract that began at 22 % of the cap.
Less than two weeks in the past, 22-year-old famous person Victor Wembanyama went that direction on his own, agreeing to the 25-percent max, although the 30-percent one would have been a no-brainer for the San Antonio Spurs. In the second-apron period, Wembanyama needed to provide his group flexibility.
So, gamers in Duren’s state of affairs at the moment are taking much less. Organizations are providing much less. And an All-Star like Duren is left in limbo.
