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Oil is up double digits in a month, the VIX is sitting at 23.57, and Reddit is asking it “Black Swan Territory” — but the retail crowd holding NVIDIA, Meta, and Microsoft isn’t promoting. The Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) is down 0.71% over the previous week and 1.08% over the previous month, but retail sentiment throughout its prime AI holdings stays bullish. A Strait of Hormuz blockade has pushed WTI crude up 10.3% in a single month and the VIX to. R/investing is asking this “Black Swan Territory” with 2,028 upvotes and 402 feedback, and most Reddit communities will not be fleeing the AI commerce.
We Are In Black Swan Territory
by u/unknown in investing
As one r/investing consumer wrote within the thread: “We are in black swan territory – the Strait of Hormuz blockade, Taiwan tensions, and AI valuations stretched to the limit. This is not a normal correction.”
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) signify roughly 24.61% of QQQ. NVIDIA alone is the fund’s single largest holding at 8.63%, what occurs to those 5 names is what occurs to QQQ.
The Earnings Are Real, But So Is the Skepticism
NVIDIA posted $68.13 billion in This autumn FY2026 income, up 73.2% year-over-year, with Data Center networking surging 263% YoY to $10.98 billion. Microsoft crossed $50 billion in cloud income for the primary time in a single quarter, with Azure rising 39%. Meta reported a $100 billion AI cope with AMD that briefly despatched weekly sentiment to 82 (very bullish). These will not be rumor-driven strikes. Still, r/shares is wrestling with whether or not the numbers justify the costs. A publish asking “Is anyone else terrified China takes Taiwan next?” collected 4,506 upvotes and 1,346 feedback. The concern is actual. The promoting has not adopted.
With the US hitting Venezuela today, is anyone else terrified China takes Taiwan next? (and bricks the global chip supply)
by u/unknown in stocks
As the unique publish learn: “With the US hitting Venezuela today, is anyone else terrified China takes Taiwan next? (and bricks the global chip supply) – if that happens, NVDA, MSFT, and every AI name goes to zero overnight.”
Google Is the Outlier Retail Investors Are Watching
Meta and Microsoft have the best weekly sentiment scores at 62.57 and 60.24, respectively. Alphabet is the breakdown story. Its weekly rating sits at 36.52, down from a quarterly common of 58.86:
- Alphabet’s CEO bought practically $10 million of his personal inventory in a single week, fueling insider-selling anxiousness on r/wallstreetbets
- A thread asking “how vulnerable is GOOGL to cheap models from China?” generated 98 feedback
- Alphabet’s inventory is down 11.69% over the previous month, the worst performer on this group
“How vulnerable is GOOGL to cheap models from China? DeepSeek already proved you don’t need $175B in capex to build a competitive model – Google’s moat is evaporating in real time and the market hasn’t fully priced it in yet.” – r/shares
Palantir’s quarterly sentiment was 59.43, however this week it sits at 45.15. A publish titled “Finally took profit on a 10bagger” collected 1,181 upvotes, and Polymarket reveals insiders are internet promoting regardless of the inventory’s 82% one-year acquire. The enthusiasm is being examined by what a 233x P/E really requires to be justified.
Finally took profit on a 10bagger
by u/unknown in wallstreetbets
As the publish writer wrote: “Finally took profit on a 10bagger – held PLTR since $15, sold at $158. I love this company, but I’m not going to pretend the valuation makes sense at 60x revenue. Taking gains and watching from the sidelines.”
The 10-year Treasury yield falling to three.97% on February 27, its lowest in a 12 months, is compressing {discount} charges and making future earnings look extra invaluable. That tailwind is propping up the AI commerce whilst geopolitical danger builds. If oil pushes previous $80 or the VIX spikes previous 30, the discount-rate tailwind propping up stretched AI valuations disappears quick.
