Trump’s Greenland push ramps up security stakes

Icelanders on Saturday will vote in a knife-edge referendum on whether or not to renew negotiations to affix the European Union, reopening a debate that has taken on deeper significance within the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump‘s Arctic saber-rattling.

The query put to the Nordic nation of almost 400,000 is solely: “Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?”

Opinion polls point out the advisory vote is prone to go right down to the wire, with the nation successfully break up in half on the problem. If a majority of voters reply sure, accession negotiations will happen, which if profitable, would result in a negotiated settlement being put to a second referendum for the Icelandic individuals to just accept or reject.

It comes because the Arctic emerges as a major hotbed for important minerals and local weather change rapidly melts sea ice, opening seasonal shipping routes, and amid Trump’s renewed push to amass Greenland, Iceland’s closest neighbor.

The U.S. president has long advocated for management over Greenland on nationwide security grounds. Notably, Trump appeared to repeatedly combine up Greenland and Iceland throughout a particular handle on the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland earlier within the yr.

“All of the arguments put forth by the U.S. president for why it would be necessary for the U.S. to acquire Greenland actually equally applied to Iceland. The only difference is that Iceland is formally an independent country,” stated Eiríkur Bergmann, professor of politics at Iceland’s Bifröst University.

Iceland utilized to affix the EU in 2009 within the aftermath of the global financial crisis, earlier than suspending membership talks in 2013 when a euroskeptic coalition authorities got here to energy.

At the beginning of the yr, Iceland Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdottir said that deeper dialogue and collaboration with the EU could be a key think about shoring up the nation’s pursuits.

“It is clear that the international system we have lived in since the end of World War II is in turmoil,” Gunnarsdottir stated in an article for Icelandic newspaper Visir, based on a Google translation.

Alongside Trump’s Greenland ambitions, Bergmann stated diminishing belief within the U.S. as a security associate is one other key concern forward of the vote.

Iceland, a founding member of NATO, is the only ally that doesn’t have its personal army forces. The nation additionally sits astride the so-called GIUK Gap, a naval choke level between Greenland, Iceland and the U.Ok. that hyperlinks the Arctic to the Atlantic Ocean.

“Iceland’s security and defense is guarded by our membership in NATO, but also, for many, more importantly, by a bilateral defense agreement with the U.S. since 1951. Now many people are sort of reconsidering the validity of that defense agreement,” Bergmann stated.

While these geopolitical developments have influenced the context wherein Icelanders have mentioned the prospect of EU membership, political consultants have careworn the controversy has primarily been pushed by home points — significantly the financial system, sovereignty and fisheries.

Jon Danielsson, director of the Systemic Risk Centre and reader in finance on the London School of Economics, stated Iceland has beforehand fought tough battles in opposition to EU member states over management of its fishing trade, describing the problem as “totemic” given the sector’s financial significance.

“For the Icelanders, the key issue in joining is the euro and to get away from the instability of its own currency and very high interest rates. So, the euro is really what they see as the target they want,” Danielsson advised CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” on Friday.

“Even if it voted to join, the vast majority of the population would be looking at the fishing and whether the EU would provide the necessary conditions — which, to my mind, seems doubtful,” he added.

Former Icelandic Prime Minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir, in the meantime, has stated that she would not see the argument for becoming a member of the EU, saying the nation maintains shut financial collaboration with the 27-nation bloc and its residents already get pleasure from excessive dwelling requirements.

“If a majority of the people wants to apply, it is very important to listen to that majority, but I haven’t changed my position,” Jakobsdóttir advised CNBC in mid-April.

To ensure, Iceland is already deeply built-in into the European framework, partly by its membership of the European Economic Area, which supplies the volcanic island entry to the EU’s single market with out requiring full membership.

Iceland can be a member of the Schengen Area, which permits passport-free journey between it and different taking part European international locations.

“The current Social Democrat-led government, which actually initiated or applied for membership the first time round, is now reheating its bid to close this unfinished business, so to speak,” Steven Blockmans, deputy director on the International Centre for Defence and Security assume tank, advised CNBC by phone.

For the EU, political consultants have stated the bloc is available in the market for one thing of a hit case, significantly after Britain’s exit in 2020.

A victory for the sure marketing campaign might pave the best way for a negotiated settlement to be reached comparatively rapidly, Bergmann stated, as a result of Iceland’s coalition authorities is approaching its subsequent common election, which should be held no later than Aug. 2028.

“Bigger is better in this day and age, it seems,” Blockmans stated.

He added that the EU probably welcoming a rustic ranked among the many main nations in GDP per capita and among the many main nations in world democratic efficiency would undoubtedly give “extra shine to the European integration project.”