Every new season guarantees new surprises. Teams and gamers will drastically under- or overperform projections. Part of the enjoyable of being a fan is planting your flag forward of time and predicting the subsequent breakout or disappointment (much less enjoyable).
For instance, I feel Masyn Winn goes to overachieve each projection system this 12 months and put up a 5 WAR season. I might cite any variety of statistics, narratives, or hunches to assist my opinion, however the level is that I’ve a transparent image of how I feel his season will go. If it deviates from that image, I shall be shocked or upset.
On the flip facet, there are gamers that I merely don’t know what to make of. Nolan Gorman might hit 40 dwelling runs this 12 months or be DFA’d by the All-Star break, and I wouldn’t be shocked by both end result. This listing is subjective, however listed here are the 5 main leaguers and 5 minor leaguers that may’t shock me in 2026.
Nolan Gorman(*10*)
(*10*)It could also be cliché, however that is actually a make-or-break 12 months for Gorman and the Cardinals. He solely has three years of group management left, so the concept he can incrementally enhance and work his approach again into the long-term image isn’t lifelike. No, he’ll want a full-blown breakout in his age-26 season. I don’t see the Cardinals sticking with Gorman into the second half if actual modifications to his contact and talent to translate his energy into video games will not be evident within the early going. By the All-Star break, Gorman could possibly be a DFA candidate or a core piece of the offense.
Andre Pallante(*10*)
(*10*)Pallante is such an fascinating pitcher as a result of he’s elite at managing injury on contact however struggles to generate sufficient swing-and-miss to be viable as a starter (or reliever). As at present constructed, he has to stroll a really positive line to be efficient, but when he can add or refine an off-speed pitch to generate swing-and-miss, there might nonetheless be upside left. Pallante, with a little bit extra management and a dependable off-speed pitch, is a mid-rotation starter. The Pallante we noticed final 12 months isn’t going to be pitching vital innings on a contending membership.
Dustin May(*10*)
(*10*)May’s harm historical past and inconsistencies have been properly documented. He has additionally had a wholesome and spectacular spring coaching, together with his fastball velocity up over two miles per hour 12 months over 12 months. If he combines the rate and stuff from his early Dodger days together with his well being from final 12 months, the Cardinals can have an enormous asset on their arms. Every pitcher carries the danger of harm, however May is among the few who has professional ace upside.
Nathan Church
(*10*)At this time final 12 months, expectations for Church had been low to nonexistent. After a breakout 2025, he nonetheless may simply be a AAAA participant or fourth outfielder. Or… he is likely to be Harrison Bader within the outfield and Brendan Donovan on the plate. He is especially powerful to mission as a result of he modified his profile to incorporate extra energy final season within the minor leagues, however then fully faceplanted offensively throughout his main league time.
Thomas Saggese
(*10*)Saggese has stayed beneath the radar a bit during the last couple of seasons. He was a top-100 prospect after his glorious 2023 season, however he didn’t have the pedigree of a Jordan Walker or Nolan Gorman. Still, upside stays, as Saggese has proven himself to be a reliable defender on the main league stage and remains to be simply 24 years outdated. The query is whether or not he can get to the ability that he confirmed within the minor leagues. Saggese excels at hitting balls on the proper angles however might want to discover extra consistency to have actual offensive influence.
These will not be essentially all of the highest-upside prospects within the system, however they may all be top-100 prospects in baseball, or not even ranked within the Cardinals system a 12 months from now.
Yairo Padilla(*10*)
(*10*)Best Case Scenario:(*10*) Padilla strikes as much as Low-A and begins exhibiting energy commensurate together with his athletic 6’4” body and spectacular exit velocity numbers. With plate method and athleticism to dream on, Padilla should still be the highest-upside participant within the system.
Worst Case Scenario:(*10*) Padilla has hit for basically no in-game energy in his first two skilled seasons. If he fails to influence the baseball once more this season, he’ll begin to look extra like Jeremy Rivas as a prospect than Fernando Tatis Jr.
Deniel Ortiz(*10*)
(*10*)Best Case Scenario:(*10*) Ortiz continues to construct on his spectacular debut season. Ortiz is a prospect in the identical vein as Joshua Baez in that he has glorious batted-ball knowledge (launch angle and exit velocity), however there are questions round his contact potential. Ortiz nonetheless has extraordinarily restricted expertise towards high-level competitors as a junior faculty draftee, so considerations about his contact price towards good velocity could also be overblown. He improved all through final season and could possibly be primed for huge numbers within the hitter-friendly setting at Springfield as soon as he arrives.
Worst Case Scenario:(*10*) If Ortiz’s contact points persist and he can’t deal with third base, he’ll rapidly transfer from top-100 breakout candidate to an afterthought as a prospect.
Chen-Wei Lin(*10*)
(*10*)Best Case Scenario:(*10*) Lin possesses a fastball that may contact 100 mph and intriguing sufficient secondaries that he may stick within the rotation if every part clicks. He by no means obtained right into a rhythm in 2025 as a consequence of accidents and inconsistencies, however he completed with a flourish in his final two Double-A begins, putting out 15 in seven innings. Listed at 6’7”, Lin may have a little bit longer to develop, however coming into his age-24 season, a delayed breakout remains to be very doable.
Worst Case Scenario:(*10*) Another harm or walk-plagued 12 months might result in Lin falling into the non-prospect tier.
Braden Davis(*10*)
(*10*)Best Case Scenario:(*10*) Davis will get his management ironed out and rides his spectacular changeup to turning into a top-100 prospect in baseball. Davis was second within the minor leagues in Okay% whereas throwing over 100 innings in his debut season, so the sturdiness and swing-and-miss basis you wish to see in a starter are there.
Worst Case Scenario:(*10*) If Davis’ command doesn’t enhance, or his stuff backs up, he’ll look extra like a hopeful reliever than a possible strikeout-oriented mid-rotation starter.
Best Case Scenario:(*10*) We simply lived by the Rainiel Rodriguez breakout season in his first 12 months stateside, so the precedent has been set for DSL gamers. Rodriguez was forward of Dos Santos in comparable DSL metrics in wRC+ (185 to 158) and ISO (.338 to .258), however that is nonetheless spectacular manufacturing from a center infielder who was not identified for energy coming into the season. To make an actual splash, Dos Santos might want to dominate the Florida Complex League and earn a promotion to full-season ball.
Worst Case Scenario:(*10*) There is actually no “floor” on a prospect who has but to play within the U.S., but when the ability doesn’t include him, Dos Santos shall be simply one other participant combating to get out of the decrease minors.
We spend all spring attempting to mission how a season will unfold, however a number of the most vital outcomes come from the gamers we are able to’t confidently mission. So who do you’ve the least really feel for proper now?
