The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open is underway on the Caja Magica in Madrid, Spain, and the clay-court season solely heats up from right here. We’ve damaged down the day’s greatest tennis betting picks for Madrid, digging into matchup techniques, floor tendencies, and present kind to seek out the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, sport unfold, set unfold, or whole, our 2026 Mutua Madrd Open greatest bets are constructed that can assist you revenue. I’m dropping a few of my favourite performs for Thursday, April 23 beneath, however be sure to additionally monitor the picks page all through the day. I typically have a number of extra picks over there, plus I often add performs primarily based on how strains are shifting. That’s additionally the place Gill Alexander posts his greatest bets.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
This has been a brutal season for Dimitrov, as he’s 2-8 because the begin of the 12 months. Dimitrov additionally comes into this match having misplaced three straight — and 7 of his final eight. The Bulgarian has now fallen all the best way to No. 137 within the ATP rankings, which is wild for a former world No. 3. The 34-year-old additionally has a difficult opening matchup, as Daniel Vallejo may be very comfy on clay. In truth, Daniel Vallejo has already gained two matches this event, getting by means of qualifying to ebook his spot in the primary draw.
Despite all of that, I’m treating this as a reduction on a top-15 participant within the sport. Dimitrov didn’t all of a sudden neglect methods to play tennis. He’s simply looking for some consolation on courtroom after having handled critical accidents lately. But you already know what? The undeniable fact that Dimitrov hasn’t needed to take care of any important ache lately is a win. As lengthy as he’s capable of keep on the courtroom, he ought to break by means of and discover his sport once more. Why can’t he do it right here?
Dimitrov is a a lot better server than Daniel Vallejo, and that must be massive on these courts. Dimitrov’s backhand slice can be a significant weapon on lower-bouncing surfaces, and that ought to give him a pleasant go-to shot in rallies right here. I additionally imagine that an in-form Dimitrov would dominate a match like this together with his forehand. That mentioned, if the Bulgarian reveals up in first rate form, I see him discovering a approach by means of.
Bet: Dimitrov ML (-106 – 1.5 items)
Alycia Parks vs. Ann Li
Parks is likely one of the most up-and-down gamers on the WTA Tour proper now, nevertheless it’s arduous to put off her at plus-money odds right here. Parks is coming off a stable run in Stuttgart, the place she went to the Round of 16 and put up a great combat in opposition to Mirra Andreeva. The American has additionally gained three matches in Madrid already, profitable in straight units in opposition to Elina Avanesyan and Ksenia Efremova in qualifying. She then earned one other straight-set win over Elisabetta Cocciaretto within the opening spherical.
The win over Cocciaretto is a tough one to disregard as Parks will get able to face Li. Cocciaretto is a participant that has some critical rally tolerance, so Parks discovering a approach by means of her ought to imply good issues when taking a look at this match within the Round of 64. Parks has a booming serve and a whole lot of energy from the baseline. However, staying stable and avoiding expensive errors could be a difficulty for her. Well, with Parks managing every little thing effectively proper now, I don’t see any cause she will’t beat Li in server-friendly situations. This is a coin-flip match, which isn’t mirrored within the odds.
Bet: Parks ML (+119)
Camila Osorio vs. Naomi Osaka
Osaka beat Osorio in a three-set match at Indian Wells, incomes a 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 victory within the desert. However, whereas these aren’t essentially the most simple hard-court situations on the earth, they’re nonetheless arduous courts. Well, Osaka is 182-89 on arduous courts in her profession. Meanwhile, she’s simply 29-29 on clay. That mentioned, we’re about to see Osaka on her very worst floor, whereas we’re about to see Osorio on her greatest floor.
Osorio is a ridiculous 54-24 on clay in her profession, so she’s actually elite when competing on the filth. And whereas it is a extra server-friendly clay-court event than most, Osorio ought to have a bonus in many of the longer rallies right here. Also, the truth that these situations are sort to servers may assist her maintain a little bit simpler than she did when these two met within the BNP Paribas Open.
Osorio additionally did beat Osaka at Indian Wells final 12 months, profitable 6-4, 6-4 within the first spherical. I say that to say that this has been a aggressive head-to-head lately, and I can see issues tilting the Colombian’s approach on pink clay.
Bet: Osorio ML (+100 – 1.5 items)
NOTE: While solely three picks are written up right here, I normally have extra on the Pro Picks web page. I attempt to choose the performs I write up primarily based on participant recognition. Some of the picks on the Pro Picks web page are higher-confidence choices.
