I need to take subject with these calling the Toronto Raptors’ loss to the tanktastic Sacramento Kings on Wednesday their worst defeat of the yr.
The Raptors misplaced by 21 in Washington in December. In the identical month, they scored 81 factors in Brooklyn. At least Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes, the Raptors’ two All-Stars, each performed in these video games. Ingram didn’t play towards the Kings on Wednesday.
Alas, the later you get into the season, the extra you perceive how a lot any given win or loss may impression your playoff possibilities. Before the Raptors suffered back-to-back losses to the Pistons and Kings, that they had about an 80 p.c likelihood of ending fifth or sixth within the Eastern Conference and avoiding the Play-In Tournament, in accordance to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities. Ahead of Thursday’s video games, these possibilities have been down to 52.8 p.c. Most of the drop was brought on by dropping a recreation that the projection techniques had all however given them, with outdated pals Precious Achiuwa and DeMar DeRozan giving them a actual April Fools pranking. Mean.
With six video games left, the Raptors are in seventh place within the East heading into Friday’s video games. Two of these are at dwelling towards the Miami Heat; the Raptors received twice in Miami earlier within the season, when the Heat have been much less wholesome than they’re now. The Raptors even have video games towards the Boston Celtics (Sunday) and the New York Knicks (April 10), towards whom they’re a mixed 0-7 with a minus–113 level differential — common margin of defeat, 16.1 factors. (Perhaps the Knicks can have nothing to play for by the penultimate recreation of the season, however they’ll even be staring 5 or 6 off days within the face. We don’t know the way they’ll sort out the remaining vs. rust query, ought to it come up.)
And then the Raptors play Memphis this Friday and Brooklyn to finish the season on April 12. They couldn’t presumably lose these!
Anyway, with six video games to go, this looks like a good time to go over the various potentialities that face the Raptors (42-34).
Tiebreakers
Practically talking, the Raptors will win any two-team tiebreaker besides towards the 76ers. The Raptors break up the season sequence towards Philadelphia (42-34), however the 76ers would win on the energy of their superior divisional document.
The Raptors beat the Hawks (44-33) and Magic (40-36) of their sequence this season. They tied the Hornets (41-36) and will nonetheless tie the Heat (40-37) if Miami beats the Raptors twice subsequent week, however the Raptors can have the superior convention document over each, which is the subsequent tiebreaker.
Things get extra sophisticated within the occasion of multi-team ties. Until the Raptors misplaced on Wednesday, a three-way tie for the fifth, sixth and seventh spots between the Raptors, Sixers and Hawks was trying like a sensible risk. Atlanta would win the Southeast Division in that situation, so it might win the tiebreaker and end fifth, whereas the 76ers would end sixth due to their benefit over the Raptors. Divisions: They nonetheless matter, for some motive.
If a division champion isn’t in a multi-team tie, the head-to-head document between the entire groups is the primary tiebreaker. Division document if the groups are in the identical division (not related for the Raptors) is subsequent, adopted by convention document after which document towards playoff groups in the identical convention.
Without moving into each situation, the Raptors are in fairly good condition there, though they nonetheless have 5 convention video games left.
Avoiding the Play-In (ending fifth or sixth)
The groups ending fifth and sixth will seemingly play the Knicks and the Cavaliers, though the Knicks may nonetheless catch the Celtics to end second. New York entered Friday’s play 2 1/2 video games behind Boston, but when the Knicks win the ultimate recreation between these two groups, they might seemingly win the tiebreaker through division document.
Assuming the Hawks and 76ers stay the 2 most related groups on this race, the Raptors’ most probably path to a top-six seed is ending with a higher document than Philadelphia of their remaining six video games. Alternatively, if the Raptors end with the identical document because the Hawks however not the 76ers, they might end forward of Atlanta. The Raptors would have to win two extra video games than the Hawks the remainder of the best way to catch them, in order that situation is much less seemingly.
Remaining schedules
Philadelphia: Minnesota, Detroit (again to again), at San Antonio, at Houston, at Indiana (again to again), Milwaukee
Atlanta: at Brooklyn, New York, at Cleveland, Cleveland, at Miami
Neither group has a straightforward schedule, however the Raptors going 3-3 means the 76ers would have to go 2-4 or worse, or Atlanta would have to end 1-4 or worse. In different phrases, the Raptors will in all probability have to go 4-2 to keep away from the Play-In — not that it might assure something.
Play-In seeding (7-10 seeds)
The two groups that advance to the playoffs from the Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament will seemingly face Detroit and Boston, who’re seemingly to end first and second, respectively. The Celtics will in all probability get the winner of the 7-8 recreation, leaving the opposite Play-In group for the Pistons.
The 76ers’ schedule means they may simply fall again into Play-In territory. They may go 2-4, and thus end 44-38. It can be more durable for the Hawks to sink that low, however not inconceivable.
The 44-win mark is vital, although. If the Raptors end above it, they seemingly won’t fall beneath the seventh seed, which, at worst, would give them two dwelling video games to win one to make the playoffs. Worse than that, and the Raptors have a actual likelihood at ending eighth and enjoying on the street within the 7-8 recreation, or — yikes — falling into the 9-10 recreation.
As talked about, the Raptors will win any two-team tiebreaker with any Southeast Division group. Multi-team ties may convey chaos, as Orlando swept its season sequence with Miami 5-0. The Hornets beat the Magic 3-1, whereas the Heat beat the Hornets 3-1.
As for the 76ers, they beat the Hornets 2-1, misplaced to the Heat 2-1 and beat Orlando 2-1.
Remaining schedules
Charlotte: Indiana (again to again), at Minnesota, at Boston, Detroit, at New York
Orlando: at Dallas, at New Orleans, Detroit (again to again), Minnesota, at Chicago, at Boston
Miami: Washington, at Toronto, at Toronto, at Washington (again to again), Atlanta
Chaotic potentialities
There are solely three remaining matchups that includes two of the Mid-6. Miami is in all three of them, with two in Toronto and one towards the Hawks. The most probably document to trigger a four-plus group tie: 44-38. The most probably method to get that: The Heat win each video games in Toronto after which lose to the Hawks.
In that situation, there could possibly be a five-way tie. If that occurs, the tie can be damaged with the head-to-head document between the 5 groups. That would outcome within the following end.
6. Philadelphia (7-6)
7. Toronto (8-7)
8. Orlando (8-7)
9. Charlotte (7-8)
10. Miami (7-9)
In the case of a four-way tie, excluding Philadelphia:
7. Orlando (7-4)
8. Toronto (6-5)
9. Charlotte (6-6)
10. Miami (5-8)
In nearly all of the believable three-way ties, the Raptors would end second among the many three groups.
There are many different potential scenarios, however they might contain some main upsets, like a group with nothing left to play for defeating a group that wanted to win. And that may by no means occur.
