Predicting rest of Dodgers’ 2026 season from first-month pace

How the Los Angeles Dodgers would strategy the common season was an enormous query going into the 2026 MLB marketing campaign.

Now that we have had a month to evaluate L.A.’s strategy, we’re placing our MLB consultants to the check by having them predict the rest of the Dodgers’ season primarily based on what we have seen thus far.

Will the Dodgers hold racking up wins? Can their batting common proceed to soar above the rest of the game? And simply how seemingly is Shohei Ohtani so as to add a 2026 Cy Young Award to his Hall of Fame résumé? Let’s dig in.

The Dodgers are on pace for 110 wins. Will they go over/below that complete?

Alden Gonzalez: Under, largely as a result of of how they use their roster. This second presents an ideal snapshot: Hyeseong Kim and Alex Freeland are seeing quite a bit of time within the center infield; Roki Sasaki is getting begins he would not deserve; and the likes of Blake Snell and Tommy Edman are progressing slowly from accidents.

The Dodgers have turn out to be additional cautious with their pitchers in the course of the common season, oftentimes giving them far more time than wanted. They do not deploy their roster to the max — with starters going each 5 days, relievers used aggressively and place gamers taking part in via nagging illnesses — till they completely need to. No disrespect to the San Diego Padres and their early surge, however I do not see anybody within the National League West pushing the Dodgers in that method this season.

David Schoenfield: That’s an extremely excessive bar. In the 162-game period, which started within the American League in 1961 and the NL in 1962, solely 9 groups have gained that many video games. I assumed this staff had 110-win potential, however we’re seeing a couple of causes that may not occur: the harm to Mookie Betts, the harm to Edwin Diaz and inconsistent outcomes from the bullpen, and a few potential age points exhibiting with Freddie Freeman (nonetheless good however perhaps now not a celebrity) and Teoscar Hernandez.

The Dodgers have loads of depth to beat all that — particularly when factoring in gradual begins on the plate from Ohtani and Kyle Tucker — and as different groups undergo pitching attrition all through the season, L.A. may reel off some huge streaks. But 110? I’ll say slightly below, with 106 wins.

Jeff Passan: Under. In the present Dodgers period — which now stretches again 13 years, with 12 NL West titles for the reigning champs — they’ve reached or exceeded 110 wins simply as soon as, in 2022, and received summarily dispatched within the division sequence. It’s not the Dodgers’ technique to chase data. They take their time, put together for the playoffs and deal with October prefer it’s the whole lot. So, no, not solely do I believe they will not win 110-plus on expertise alone, I’m undecided they even need to.

The Dodgers are hitting .278 as a staff. What will their ultimate staff batting common be?

Gonzalez: The highest single-season staff batting common from 2015 to 2025 was .282, achieved by the 2016 Boston Red Sox and the 2017 Houston Astros. Third on that record is a newer instance — the 2023 Atlanta Braves at .276. And although it has gotten solely tougher and tougher to hit, I believe the Dodgers can hit .280 on the season. The truth that they are at the moment proper round there despite the fact that Betts is harm, Ohtani is navigating a mini hunch and Tucker hasn’t gotten going but tells you simply how deep and gifted this lineup is. The general high quality of pitching of their division — or lack thereof — will solely assist their trigger.

Schoenfield: A .278 staff common in 2026 can be off-the-charts superb. The Toronto Blue Jays led the majors with a .265 common in 2025, and it took two .300 hitters in Bo Bichette and George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting .292 to get there. The Arizona Diamondbacks and Padres led the majors in 2024 at .263. If I had a little bit extra religion in Betts and Freeman nonetheless placing up huge numbers of their mid-30s, perhaps .280 can be potential, however Andy Pages and Max Muncy aren’t prone to end the season at .300. I’ll go along with a .268 ultimate mark.

Passan: .271. Not solely is Los Angeles in line for a BABIP regression, however groups simply do not hit .278 in 2026, not even one as gifted as this. It helps that the Dodgers do not strike out an entire lot (their 21.5% charge is center of the pack within the huge leagues) and can get Betts again finally. If this seems to be sustainable, it is an offense on the extent of these 2023 Braves, whose .501 staff slugging share was the best ever for an MLB staff.

Dodgers beginning pitchers have an MLB-best 2.79 ERA. Will they hold that quantity below 3.00?

Gonzalez: Yes — if Snell comes again wholesome. Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Tyler Glasnow are all succesful of successful the Cy Young Award, and so they’ll all proceed to push one another. Snell is anticipated again earlier than the top of May, and if he is the model of himself that usually dominates within the second half, the Dodgers will make the case for one of the most effective rotations of this century. That can be the case even when Roki Sasaki continues to take his lumps. And they nonetheless have Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski and, when he returns from a hamstring harm, River Ryan.

Schoenfield: Only 4 groups up to now 10 seasons completed with a rotation ERA below 3.00: the 2022 Dodgers (2.75), the 2021 Dodgers (2.93), the 2022 Astros (2.95) and the 2016 Chicago Cubs (2.96). Keep in thoughts that 2022 was a lower-scoring season throughout MLB (4.28 runs per sport in contrast with 4.55 thus far in 2026) and that 2016 Cubs staff was one of the most effective defensive groups ever assembled. The Dodgers’ rotation is at the moment working a .241 BABIP, lowest within the majors. The Dodgers are an above-average defensive staff, however .241 is not sustainable over 162 video games — and as nice as Ohtani has been, I do not assume he finishes with a 0.38 ERA. The Dodgers’ rotation will end with an ERA over 3.00 — however not by a lot.

Passan: Yes. Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are all pitching Cy Young-caliber baseball, and Snell is on his method again. Wrobleski makes hitters uncomfortable. And whether or not it is Sasaki or Sheehan who fills the ultimate spot within the rotation, the Dodgers are sure to get extra from the group than they’ve even gotten thus far. The rotation is a definite power amongst many.

Shohei Ohtani has put up 1.9 WAR (0.8 as a hitter, 1.1 as a pitcher) thus far. What will his ultimate 2026 complete be?

Gonzalez: 13. Only Babe Ruth — in 1920, 1921 and 1923 — has ever reached that threshold below FanGraphs’ calculation. Since then, solely Barry Bonds received shut, placing up 12.5 in 2001 and 12.7 in 2002. Ohtani, of course, is exclusive. And although he in all probability will not match the 9 fWAR he put up as a hitter in his 50/50 season of 2024, remember the fact that Ohtani put up 7.5 fWAR as a hitter alone final season. His highest fWAR as a pitcher was 5.6 in 2022. That yr, he went 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA whereas ending fourth in Cy Young voting. There’s no motive to imagine he cannot do one thing related on the mound this yr.

Schoenfield: 10.5. The huge query is whether or not he can maintain the unbelievable stage of offensive efficiency from the previous two seasons. When Ohtani returned to the mound final yr, he was pitching just a few innings at a time (initially), was getting loads of rest between begins and did not pitch six innings in a regular-season sport till his ultimate outing (and that got here after 10 days of rest). So, given he’ll pitch extra innings this yr, plus factoring in that he turns 32 years previous in July, it will likely be fascinating to see if he has one other 50-homer season in him.

Passan: 9.2. Ohtani sometimes finally ends up comfortably within the 8-to-10-win vary yearly, and this yr ought to wind up no completely different. How he compiles the WAR will likely be fascinating. His greatest season pitching — in 2022, he threw 166 innings of 2.33 ERA ball — corresponded along with his solely non-MVP yr among the many previous 5. This is the newest check of being an precise two-way participant, one thing Ohtani has finished solely intermittently throughout his time within the huge leagues.

Speaking of Ohtani, his 0.38 ERA is greatest within the National League. Where will he end in 2026 Cy Young voting?

Gonzalez: Somewhere within the high 5, however not first. The Dodgers haven’t any baked-in restrictions with Ohtani, however they are going to proceed to learn and react, giving him further day without work on the first signal of fatigue. And they are going to proceed to not simply discipline a six-man rotation, but additionally hold starters in line after off days. That means Ohtani will typically take the mound with greater than 5 days off between begins, limiting his innings complete on the finish of the yr. His profession excessive in innings is 166 in 2023. Corbin Burnes gained a Cy Young Award with 167 innings in 2021, and Chris Sale gained it with 177⅔ in 2024, so it is definitely potential. But Ohtani’s margin for error will likely be razor skinny.

Schoenfield: I’ll echo Alden — I simply do not know if Ohtani will pitch sufficient innings, particularly since Paul Skenes is prone to get near 200. And if the Dodgers run away with the NL West, Ohtani’s innings are prone to subside later within the season. I’ll be stunned if he will get to 150, and voters will likely be hard-pressed to provide the Cy Young Award to a nonqualified beginning pitcher. Unless, of course, Ohtani finally ends up going one thing like 16-0 with a 0.88 ERA. I’ll go along with third place behind Skenes and Nolan McLean.

Passan: Third behind Skenes and Chase Burns. Because he won’t throw practically as many innings as pitchers in five-man rotations, Ohtani is at all times working from behind with regards to successful pitching-only awards. Unless his peripherals are so overwhelmingly higher than everybody else’s within the NL, innings pitched needs to be rewarded for his or her rarity, and that is a class during which Ohtani will wrestle.

Andy Pages, a .269 profession hitter, leads certified Dodgers hitters with a .337 common. Will he hit over/below .300 for the season?

Gonzalez: Under. It is so arduous to hit .300 nowadays. Only 36 completely different gamers have finished it over the previous 5 years. And although Pages has proven vital development as a hitter in his second full season within the main leagues, he’ll in all probability chase too typically to hitch that group. It’s a component of his sport, and given the facility he can convey to the underside third of their lineup, the Dodgers will gladly settle for that. They do not want him to hit .300.

Schoenfield: Under. Pages’ chase charge is not any higher than final season, rating within the thirty second percentile. His hard-hit charge IS method up from 2025 — 20 share factors larger — so there may be some actual enchancment occurring right here in high quality of contact. His anticipated common by way of Statcast is .300, so he has had a little bit good luck on balls in play. I’ll go below .300 however larger than the .272 he hit final season. Throw in his wonderful protection in heart discipline, and he may find yourself as a possible MVP candidate (non-Ohtani division).

Passan: Under, however that does not preclude him from having a superb season. At the top of spring coaching, when requested for his decide to click on, Dodgers supervisor Dave Roberts selected Pages. And although Pages’ numbers have regressed barely of late, they may recede much more when his common on balls in play dips from .397, which is at the moment the second-highest mark within the huge leagues.

Kyle Tucker has a .696 OPS after signing for $60 million per yr this previous winter. What will his season mark be?

Gonzalez: Tucker has gotten off to scorching begins every of these previous three years, however in 2022, he completed April with a .685 OPS. By the top of the yr, he had elevated it to .808. I’m going to say he finishes proper round there, which, as a reminder, remains to be a superb yr. Out of 145 certified hitters final yr, solely 45 of them reached an .800 OPS. The Dodgers anticipated MVP-level manufacturing from Tucker. They may need to attend one other yr for that.

Schoenfield: Tucker’s strikeout-to-walk charge has been fairly near even the previous three seasons, together with 87 walks and 88 strikeouts in 2025, however this yr he has twice as many K’s as walks. That’s a priority since strikeout and stroll charges are likely to stabilize a lot earlier in a season than different statistics. Maybe it is the stress of dwelling as much as the massive contract that made him the highest-paid participant within the sport for 2026. Maybe it is only a random gradual begin. Tucker will hit higher, however the strikeout numbers are sufficient of a priority that I’ll go along with a ultimate OPS of .791, a 50-point drop from 2025.

Passan: He will end at .836. To arrive at that quantity, I took Tucker’s profession OPS (.859) and simply assumed he would mess around that stage for the rest of the season. Sometimes acclimation takes time. As does getting used to being a participant with an attention-getting contract. Tucker remains to be a superb participant, and whether or not that makes him price $60 million a yr or not would not matter. The Dodgers are higher with him.