The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a G2 geomagnetic storm warning for March 19 (UTC) — which interprets to late March 18 in North America — with G1 situations prone to proceed into March 20, as a number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) head towards Earth. Geomagnetic storms are categorised utilizing a G-scale, which ranks their depth from G1 (minor) to G5 (excessive).
While the preliminary forecast targeted on a single CME launched throughout an M2.7 photo voltaic flare on March 16, forecasters now say no less than 4 CMEs could impression Earth in fast succession, probably extending and complicating geomagnetic exercise by March 20-21.
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This is nice information for aurora chasers as the expected G2-level storm could convey northern lights as far south as New York and Idaho, however NOAA’s SWPC says there’s a likelihood that G3 ranges could be reached, which could result in aurora sightings deep into mid-latitudes such as Illinois and Oregon.
When will the photo voltaic storm hit?
The potential arrival time for the incoming photo voltaic storms remains to be evolving, and relies on which of the a number of CMEs strike Earth and what impact they’ve.
According to NOAA’s latest forecast, the primary impacts could start as early as 11 p.m. EDT March 18 (0300 GMT March 19), with average (G2) geomagnetic storm situations almost definitely between 2:00 a.m. and eight a.m. EDT (0600-1200 GMT).
However, different fashions, together with these cited by the U.K. Met Office, recommend the principle CME could arrive in a while March 19 and even early March 20, prolonging auroral exercise by the weekend.
Because a number of eruptions are concerned, geomagnetic exercise could persist for 24-48 hours or longer, slightly than peaking in a single quick burst. So be certain that your digital camera batteries are charged! We could be in for a number of nights of aurora reveals down at mid-latitudes.
There are respectable probabilities for some geomagnetic storming this weekend and auroral shows additional equatorward than ordinary. NOAA SWPC has a G2 / average storm look ahead to Thursday March 19 and a G1 / minot storm look ahead to Friday March 20. This is in response to no less than FOUR CMEs… pic.twitter.com/o7tGTUKrjTMarch 18, 2026
Will auroras really be seen?
Even throughout sturdy geomagnetic storms, aurora visibility is rarely assured.
While G2 situations can push the auroral oval southward, how far auroras are seen relies on components like magnetic subject orientation, storm timing and native climate situations.
Auroras are additionally extremely dynamic, typically intensifying throughout short-lived bursts identified as substorms — which means one of the best shows could final solely minutes at a time.
Clear, darkish skies and timing your viewing round peak geomagnetic exercise might be key.
But if there may be even an opportunity you may get present and your climate forecast is trying clear, I’d undoubtedly be heading exterior and protecting a watch out, as you by no means actually know!
Seasonal increase to auroras
This week’s storm watch comes at an particularly thrilling time for aurora hunters, with many relating to March as one of the best months to see the northern lights.
Around the spring and autumn equinoxes, Earth’s orientation in house makes it simpler for its magnetic subject to attach with the magnetic subject carried by the photo voltaic wind and incoming CMEs. This seasonal increase in geomagnetic exercise is thought as the Russell-McPherron impact, first described by geophysicists Christopher Russell and Robert McPherron in 1973.
During the equinoxes, the sun shines instantly over Earth’s equator, giving each hemispheres equal day and night time. This geometry additionally helps incoming solar wind work together extra successfully with Earth’s magnetic subject.
For many of the 12 months, Earth‘s tilt reduces this interplay, serving to to deflect a number of the incoming charged particles. But across the equinoxes, that pure protect turns into extra open to incoming photo voltaic wind. As a outcome, house climate occasions such as quick photo voltaic wind from coronal holes or CMEs can ship a stronger impression, rising the possibilities of auroras.
Stay tuned!
Keep up to date with the latest space weather news with our aurora forecast live blog. For real-time forecasts based mostly in your location, think about using an area climate app. An incredible choice is “My Aurora Forecast & Alerts” (out there for iOS and Android). For a deeper dive into house climate situations, “Space Weather Live” is one other wonderful alternative (out there for iOS and Android)
Northern Hemisphere aurora forecast courtesy of the U.Okay. Met Office
Editor’s word: This article has been up to date with the most recent forecasts from NOAA and the U.Okay. Met Office, together with revised storm timing, up to date geomagnetic storm ranges and new info indicating a number of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are actually anticipated to impression Earth.
