Welcome again to Week Twenty-Two of our Patience or Panic sequence, the place we check out three struggling gamers and supply suggestions on how you must react to their gradual begins and subpar efficiency.
“Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.” – Alexander Pope
Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros
One of probably the most constant hitters has hit a wall in August. Injuries have saved Jeremy Peña on the sector for lower than 90 video games this season, however he’s made probably the most of them. He’s on a 162-game tempo for 30 HR and 16 SB, hitting atop the Houston order, and elevating the ceiling on an already fascinating 20-20 profile in his profession up to now. Over his final two seasons, Peña has improved his pull air charge to over 20%, making extra frequent visits to the Crawford Boxes in LF. He’s amassed an OPS over .900 every of the final two seasons at residence, greater than 200 factors larger than he’s managed on the street.
After he first returned from the IL in mid-May, Peña had hit .286 or higher in each month, and peaked in July with a .386 common and 6 HR in simply 68 PA. However, August has been unkind. He’s grow to be extra aggressive on the plate, chasing at 44% of pitches outdoors the zone and placing out 31% of the time, an enormous improve from his profession common of 20%. The excessive chase charge has all the time been a part of Peña’s profile, however his bat-to-ball abilities have usually been ok to make up for it. His Contact+ grade on the season is 98, which might be his lowest mark since his rookie season in 2022, placing our expectations of Peña to the take a look at.
Simply put, don’t overthink this one. Peña has solidified his standing because the leadoff hitter, with Yordan Alvarez backing him up. It’s very tough to search out hitters who can hit for common and energy, and Peña has confirmed dependable over a big pattern. With the Astros in the midst of a division battle down the stretch, proceed to trip with him and belief he can flip it round with the Mets, White Sox, and Diamondbacks up subsequent on the schedule.
Verdict: Patience
Esmerlyn Valdez, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Esmerlyn Valdez turned a family fantasy identify in late June, rattling off 4 straight video games with a HR, en path to a binge of 12 lengthy balls over a 25-game stretch. The mud has settled. In 25 video games since, Valdez is hitting .183 and hit his first HR on Monday night time off a Robbie Ray fastball. Now that we’ve seen a few of the good and the dangerous, it seems like a great time to make sense of what Valdez has to supply in the long run.
Joey Gallo, is that you simply? Currently, three certified hitters are within the backside 10% in BB%, whereas within the prime 10% in each Okay% and Barrel%. Essentially, these are the three-true-outcome guys who’ve the very best probability to contribute to a pitcher’s FIP after they step into the field. Those three could be Kyle Schwarber, Nick Kurtz, and Munetaka Murakami. Valdez isn’t certified, however he’d be the fourth, finishing our Mount Rushmore and dangling an intoxicating upside proper in entrance of our faces. Is he that good? Probably not. But does he should be?
Well, the Pirates have actually purchased in. Valdez has oscillated with Brandon Lowe between second and fourth within the Pittsburgh order, which has quietly put collectively a terrific season. Those in OBP leagues don’t have anything to fret about, however even managers in customary leagues ought to hold holding and hope that HR on Monday night time can begin a brand new energy surge to shut out the common season. You’ll have a tough time discovering significantly better upside on the wire.
Verdict: Patience
Dylan Crews, OF, Washington Nationals
Expectations can warp our understanding of the reality. Dylan Crews was the 2nd general decide within the 2023 draft and was understandably promoted with loads of hype as a top-10 prospect in MLB in 2024. A sub-.700 OPS cratered these expectations and left us wanting extra. Somehow, although, Crews is being ignored? “Disappointing” on this case is a participant with 20 HR and 27 SB over his final 650 PA, or simply over one full season. The true factor holding him again has been simply that – enjoying time. But for the following 5 weeks, that’s not of concern. The Nationals bought on the deadline and have moved Crews straight into the highest half of their lineup starting this week.
Yes, his low .200s batting common is regarding. Statcast has his anticipated common practically 30 factors larger for these . But this argument actually comes all the way down to the instruments. Crews is a wonderful base stealer, can hit for energy, and continues to be solely 24 years previous. The identify has saved many from taking a look at this objectively. This is a 20-20 participant that the trade has determined is enjoying at his flooring, however how a lot totally different is that manufacturing from what Dansby Swanson or Jarren Duran have put collectively this yr? Buying into that, with the potential for extra, is a no brainer in deeper leagues.
Verdict: Patience
Photos courtesy of Icon Sportswire | Adapted by Aaron Polcare (@abeardoesart on Bluesky and X)