NBA intel: What execs, coaches, scouts are watching this postseason

In the NBA, March and April generally is a mirage.

The closing few weeks of the common season function one of the best groups making ready for the playoffs, the worst groups tanking, banged-up star gamers being shut down and loads of outlier conditions unfolding.

The backside line? Performances and storylines at this level within the season aren’t at all times predictive of the league, its groups and its gamers’ future. (The Malachi Flynn Principle, if you’ll.)

As a end result, one factor coaches, scouts and executives do this time of 12 months is resolve whether or not what they’re seeing on the court docket is actual or not. As the 2025-26 common season enters its closing weekend, we requested league insiders which late-season developments will carry over to the playoffs and which might reverse as soon as the stakes develop into higher.

Brian Windhorst: It is essential to know that each Doncic (hamstring) and Reaves (indirect) have been identified with Grade 2 strains. Both gamers will completely attempt to discover a technique to come again in time to make an influence on the primary spherical, however these are vital accidents. Who can say how a gentle tissue harm will really feel two weeks from now, however the Lakers must function as if Doncic and Reaves will miss the complete collection.

The query turns into: Can the Lakers win 4 of seven video games with 41-year-old LeBron James carrying them towards the Houston Rockets, their most definitely opponent?

“There’s tactical stuff I’m sure [Lakers coach JJ Redick] and his staff are examining, and they’re running through lineup ideas,” an Eastern Conference scout instructed ESPN. “But honestly, the Lakers need LeBron to have a hot shooting series and for the Rockets to have a cold shooting series. That’s possible, and when LeBron gets his 3-pointer going, it opens up the entire game.”

“They want Marcus Smart to be wholesome,” a Western Conference scout mentioned. “He’s an important point-of-attack defender for them. They can’t afford to lose another starter, and he’s been out.”

Tim Bontemps: The unlucky irony is that James, Doncic and Reaves had lastly gotten themselves going — largely as a result of James purchased right into a “third star” function.

“Someone always has to sacrifice in that role,” an East government mentioned. “In the previous, that is been Chris Bosh or Kevin Love. This time, it was him.”

Now, the Lakers will lean on James to hold lineups that are just about devoid of ballhandling and shot creation. You can assemble a world the place the Lakers can do this — James will get scorching, the Lakers’ function gamers hit pictures and Houston struggles within the clutch — however that is additionally ignoring the clear expertise hole between the 2 sides with Doncic and Reaves out.

“Houston’s defense,” a West government mentioned, “will just swallow them up.”

Windhorst: For 20 years, when James’ groups have been in hassle, the outdated dependable has been to place the ball in his palms, unfold the ground and let him discover one of the best shot. But there’s a query of whether or not James, who has regarded wholesome for the previous 4 to 6 weeks, can nonetheless beat gamers off the dribble within the half court docket. (Much of the harm he has completed through the Lakers’ second-half surge has been in transition, the place he stays very efficient.)

“I’d love to be able to see LeBron have a vintage series,” a second West government mentioned. “But I’m afraid the teams that win the play-in might give OKC and San Antonio a better series than the Lakers can give Houston without AR and Luka.”

Is Boston’s supporting solid adequate for one more Finals run?

Bontemps: Much of the main focus through the Celtics’ time as title contenders has been on their stars: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and in addition gamers similar to Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Jrue Holiday.

But that focus has masked one of many NBA’s high participant improvement machines, one which has constantly turned late first-round picks, second-round picks and undrafted gamers into mainstays. This season, after the franchise misplaced Porzingis, Horford and Holiday within the offseason, Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla has put function gamers similar to Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman and Hugo Gonzalez in positions to succeed.

“Everyone’s weaknesses are minimized,” an Eastern scout mentioned, “and they maximize their guys’ strengths. And, by doing that, they create so many 3s that it’s tough to match up with them.”

Windhorst: Mazzulla actually did a masterful job this season of growing his bench and setting and defining roles that allowed Tatum to rejoin seamlessly. It additionally helps that Payton Pritchard has matured into an indispensable contributor who delivers whether or not he is beginning or coming off the bench.

But rivals imagine Boston’s younger gamers will probably be examined.

“There’s going to be a bad quarter or two, and probably not until the second round, where their young guys are going to show their age,” an East government mentioned. “They probably have enough [star power] to bail them out once or twice, but how they respond to adversity will teach us a lot about how good this roster really is.”

Bontemps: Boston’s different query is at middle. Neemias Queta is a deserving Most Improved Player candidate, however his potential playoff matchups embody the Detroit Pistons‘ Jalen Duren, the Cleveland Cavaliers‘ Jarrett Allen and the New York Knicks‘ Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson. The Celtics’ backups, Luka Garza and Nikola Vucevic, are each ground spacers however query marks defensively.

“Can you survive with Queta and Garza and Vuc [at center]?” a West assistant coach mentioned. “I think they’re the team to beat because I’ve seen them do it.”

Will the Cavs’ defensive regression doom them?

Windhorst: The Cavaliers had considered one of their greatest halves previously few weeks Wednesday once they beat the Hawks, who entered the night time successful 18 of their previous 21 video games. They held Atlanta to 41% taking pictures within the second half, and Donovan Mitchell and James Harden have been terrific in a 44-point third quarter. Evan Mobley had a giant sport scoring and rebounding.

But that sport caught out as a result of the Cavs allowed 67 factors within the first half, a part of a regression over the previous two-plus months that has dropped their defensive effectivity to seventeenth because the All-Star break. Earlier this week, they gave up an NBA-record 29 3-pointers to the Memphis Grizzlies, a part of a 3-point protection that has been victimized this season. Cleveland is permitting 42% taking pictures on nook 3s because the break, twentieth within the league alongside lots of the tanking groups.

The Cavs are 19-6 when Harden performs, however their defensive struggles and shifting lineups have made it exhausting to have huge confidence in them.

“Harden is a master of offense, and he and Mitchell are an absolute load to handle every night,” an East scout mentioned. “But Harden has been in better shape and the referees don’t give him as many calls as they used to for some reason. And it shows up on defense; he and Mitchell sometimes get torched out there.”

Bontemps: On one hand, Cleveland can hope that getting again Allen, who has been coping with knee points for the previous few weeks, will assist treatment its struggling protection.

On the opposite hand, counting on both Max Strus or Dean Wade to protect elite greater wings and ball handlers within the playoffs might show to be a wrestle.

“Allen has missed a bunch of time, and he’s a big part of who they are,” a scout who noticed the Cavaliers not too long ago mentioned. “You’ll get a bump because it’s the playoffs, and everyone is locked in, but you still have to manage Donovan and James. …

“Strus and Wade aren’t adequate, and Keon Ellis is simply too small.”

Windhorst: Harden is averaging 5.8 free throws per game in Cleveland, down from 8.5 in the 44 games he played for the Clippers this season. The Cavs are fourth in the league in offensive efficiency since trading for him.

“I perceive the explanations they made the Harden commerce, and I feel it did put them in a greater spot,” an East executive said. “But they are going to have instances the place they are going to be higher off with [Sam] Merrill on the market on protection greater than Harden. I feel they will go so far as Donovan’s scoring can take them, and that is one thing we have seen earlier than together with his groups.”

Mitchell has averaged 28 points over 63 playoff games, with seven 40-point playoff games and three 50-point playoff games. He has never reached a conference finals.

Can Jalen Duren be the second option for a Finals team?

Bontemps: Duren, alongside MVP candidate Cade Cunningham, has driven massive success during Detroit’s run to the East’s top seed. But can the first-time All-Star center score enough to be the second option on a team that hasn’t had any playoff success yet?

“I like Duren,” a West executive said. “I’m terrified to provide him his max [this summer], however the dude is a beast. He grabs each rebound, can guard and his scoring has exceeded every part I might have anticipated coming into the season.”

Windhorst: When Cunningham was sidelined with a collapsed lung, the playmaking-challenged Pistons started leaning on Duren to create offense for them. Coach JB Bickerstaff designed plays on which Duren was the trigger man with the ball at the top of the key, something few knew he had in his game. His usage rate and assists spiked, and the Pistons’ offense really benefited.

In the 12 games before Cunningham got hurt, Duren had a total of 14 assists. In a nine-game stretch with Cunningham out, Duren averaged four per game. It’s something new the Pistons could have in the game plan during the playoffs.

Bontemps: That said, teams have typically needed a second high-level ball handler to get to the end in the postseason, like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams for Oklahoma City final 12 months. That possibility would not exist proper now for Detroit, that means it must be a committee strategy.

“When the primary man has a lot utilization, is that simpler?” the West executive asked. “That helps it some. But I do not know if it may be solely him.”

Is San Antonio’s post-All-Star shooting surge real?

Windhorst: Early in the season, even as the Spurs were off to an awesome start behind Victor Wembanyama‘s rim attacking, the common counter was to pack the paint to force 3-pointers. It was a sound strategy — the Spurs aren’t loaded with long-range shooters, and Wembanyama can be tempted into lower-percentage shots. Over the season’s first 50 games, the Spurs were 17th in 3-pointers per game and 22nd in percentage.

“I maintain seeing you media guys say why the Spurs aren’t going to win the title,” one East vice president said. “You’d be higher off itemizing the explanation why they are.”

OK, here is a big one: Since the All-Star break, the Spurs have surged big-time from deep. They are shooting better than 38%, third in the league in that span, and are up to 14.9 makes a game, putting them just outside the top five.

Bontemps: It’s one factor to make these pictures in February and March. It’s one other to make them in late April, May and June — notably when this roster is essentially devoid of playoff expertise.

It’s been 30 years since a staff in this sort of place reached the NBA Finals with out making a run the 12 months earlier than: the 1995 Orlando Magic, led by Shaquille O’Neal and Anfernee Hardaway. There are loads of similarities between these two groups, and maybe issues will play out like they did that 12 months for the Magic and their younger stars.

However, Saturday’s thriller towards the Denver Nuggets, throughout which Keldon Johnson, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle mixed to go 0-for-16, is a window into the strategy playoff opponents might take.

“Young guys going through the playoffs for the first time is a totally different animal,” a West assistant coach mentioned. “It will be interesting to see how those guys handle it.

“But possibly Victor will determine all of it out on his personal.”

Can Stephen Curry energy Golden State to 2 street wins?

Bontemps: The speedy reply from league insiders I spoke to was “no.” Obviously, it has been a brutal season for Golden State from an harm perspective, together with dropping each Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody for the season, plus the Jonathan Kuminga drama over the primary half of the season and Kristaps Porzingis and Curry lacking massive chunks of the second half.

“I’m undecided they even win the 9-10 sport, not to mention each,” a West scout said. “It’s one factor when Steph will get it going at residence and he is obtained that crowd roaring behind him. That’s an actual factor.

“It’s different when they’re on the road and he’s doing it somewhere else. That same factor just isn’t there.”

Windhorst: So a lot of the eye on the Warriors is of course on Curry, a sport changer in each method. But the Warriors’ protection has actually struggled coming down the stretch as Steve Kerr has managed accidents.

“Our analytics people will tell me that 3-point shooting often comes down to luck, and it’s just a matter of the quality of the shot,” a West scout mentioned. “Well, the Warriors sure as hell must be having some terrible luck, because the last few times I’ve watched them they’re getting killed on corner 3s.”

The numbers, horrifyingly for Golden State, again that up. Since the All-Star break, the Warriors are giving up a league-worst 46% taking pictures share on nook 3-pointers and a jaw-dropping 57% on proper nook 3s. But it is also dangerous inside, as opponents are taking pictures 71% within the restricted space over the previous two months, fifth worst within the league.

It’s tough to take a look at the Warriors’ present type and argue they’re primed for any kind of run.