Updated March 18, 2026, 8:09 p.m. ET
• What: 3-seed Michigan State vs. 14-seed North Dakota State, NCAA event first spherical
• When: 4:05 p.m. Thursday
• Where: KeyBank Center, Buffalo, New York
• TV/Radio: TNT/Spartan Sports Network radio, together with WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; SiriusXM Ch. 203
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 25-7 total, ending second within the Big Ten at 15-5, earlier than falling within the first spherical of the Big Ten event. The Spartans are ranked No. 11 in each the Associated Press and USA TODAY Coaches polls. The Spartans are No. 11 within the NET rankings and No. 9 per the school basketball analytics website Kenpom.com. North Dakota State is 27-7 total, having gained the Summit League common season and convention championships, together with a 14-2 convention document within the common season. The Bison are unranked by the foremost polls, whereas being No. 114 within the NET rankings and ranked No. 115 by Kenpom.
• Betting line: MSU -16.5
• Coaches: Michigan State — Tom Izzo is 763-309 in his thirty first season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. North Dakota State — David Richman is 238–149 in his twelfth season as a head coach, all with the Bison.
• Series: This is the primary assembly between these two applications. North Dakota State moved up from Division II to Division I in 2003-04.
Projected lineups
MSU
C (15) Carson Cooper (6-11) 10.8
PF (0) Jaxon Kohler (6-9) 12.7
SF (55) Coen Carr (6-5) 11.6
SG (6) Jordan Scott (6-7) 5.9
PG (1) Jeremy Fears Jr. (6-2) 15.7
North Dakota State
C (44) Treyson Anderson (6-9) 10.4
F (30) Markhi Strickland (6-6) 11.8
G (0) Trevian Carson (6-3) 12.0
G (1) Damari Wheeler-Thomas (6-0) 14.4
PG (5) Andy Stefonowicz (6-2) 9.2
• MSU replace: The Spartans start what they hope is a protracted NCAA event run, enjoying a few of their greatest basketball over the previous few weeks — aside from in a Big Ten event quarterfinal loss to UCLA. It took all the common season, however MSU is lastly a prime 25 offense and protection nationally, per Kenpom, with the Spartans coming in at No. 24 in offensive effectivity and No. 13 in defensive effectivity. That means they’re nearing the baseline for what it takes to win a nationwide championship traditionally. That mentioned, MSU’s defensive numbers have been slipping a bit. Where the Spartans stay elite is on the glass, the place they’re the nation’s No. 1 defensive rebounding group and No. 4 on the offensive finish. While they’re an inconsistent 3-point taking pictures group, their total numbers are fairly strong — 35.9%, which is 66th out of 365 Division I groups.
MSU junior level guard Jeremy Fears Jr. is now this system’s single-season document holder for assists with 294, passing Cassius Winston’s seven-year outdated mark of 291, set in 2018-19. Fears, who leads the nation in assists at 9.2 per sport, is racking up the honors, having been named a second-team All-American by the Associated Press and a third-team All-American by the Sporting News.
This is the Spartans’ twenty eighth straight NCAA event beneath Izzo. Other than dropping within the play-in sport in 2021 through the COVID 12 months, MSU hasn’t dropped a first-round sport in 10 years, when, as a 2 seed, the Spartans ran right into a 15-seed Middle Tennessee State group that would not miss. MSU has solely as soon as misplaced within the first spherical as a 3 seed, one other notorious defeat, 31 years in the past to Weber State in Jud Heathcote’s closing sport.
• North Dakota State replace: The Bison arrive in Buffalo having gained the Summit League common season and event titles, although they haven’t performed a single Kenpom prime 100 group or a high-major group. At their degree, the Bison had been elite in a variety of areas — No. 1 in Summit League video games in offensive rebounding proportion (32.9%) and No. 2 on the defensive glass, No. 1 in defensive effectivity and a pair of in offense, and No. 2 in 3-point taking pictures at 39.1% in convention play.
North Dakota State’s roster is essentially made up of a gamers who’ve grown up in this system, together with 4 starters who performed important roles a 12 months in the past. In phrases of names you may know: Starter Markhi Strickland spent the final two seasons at Western Michigan; and reserve guard Max Majerle, who started his profession at Central Michigan, is the son of NBA nice and Chippewas legend Dan Majerle.
This is North Dakota State’s first NCAA look since 2019, although the Bison gained their convention event in 2020, simply earlier than the season was cancelled. In 2014, as a 12 seed, North Dakota State upset 5-seed Oklahoma within the first spherical of the NCAA event in Spokane, Washington, the place MSU additionally started their NCAA event that season.
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• Matchup evaluation: It’s troublesome to gauge simply how good North Dakota State is, primarily based on its lack of notable competitors this season. The Bison have good guards, two or three who might most likely play at the next degree, and quite a few harmful shooters, with 5 gamers who’re taking pictures 37 or 38% on 3s and have tried at the very least 97 photographs from past the arc this season. That consists of all three beginning guards — Damari Wheeler-Thomas, Andy Stefonowicz and Trevian Carson — and beginning massive man Treyson Anderson. The Bison should not have a guard, nonetheless, that’s devastating attending to the basket. They’re strong, shoot it nicely and don’t flip it over. I don’t know if that’s sufficient to harm MSU. We’ll see. The Bison have OK, however not overwhelming, dimension. I don’t assume this can be a dangerous matchup for the Spartans, so long as they defend the 3-point line.
• Prediction: If North Dakota State hits 15 3-pointers and finishes the sport with 5 turnovers or much less, MSU could be in hassle. That’s not how I see this enjoying out. I feel MSU will win on the glass and discover some good moments in transition and have a pair runs that push the margin into double digits. This is a kind of video games the place I feel we’ll know early whether or not the Bison can sustain.
• Make it: MSU 78, North Dakota State 64
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Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on X @Graham_Couch and BlueSky @GrahamCouch.
