Dan Johnson takes you thru his preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s school basketball recreation between the Morehead State and the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks.
SE Missouri State and Morehead State arrive in Evansville for an OVC semifinal that appears precisely like March is meant to look: two top-three league groups, one separated by solely a single convention win, each already holding a head-to-head receipt in opposition to the opposite, and neither bringing a faux résumé into the constructing. SEMO is 20-12 total and 14-6 in league play. Morehead State is 19-12 and 15-5. The sequence break up cleanly, with Morehead taking the primary assembly 71-69 in Kentucky earlier than SEMO answered with an 82-70 residence win a month later. That is the table-setting reality of this recreation: the margin between them has been skinny all season, and now the bracket strips away residence courtroom and asks which model of every crew is extra reliable proper now. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for tonight’s school basketball recreation between the Morehead State Eagles and the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for particular person video games all season, with loads of protection right here on DraftKings Network. Follow my deal with @dansby_edits for extra betting performs.
The Redhawks have the marginally cleaner broad profile: 73.7 factors per recreation, a 50.3% efficient discipline objective price, a greater FTA/FGA price of 0.390, a decrease 14.9% turnover price, and a barely higher scoring protection at 72.5 factors allowed per recreation. Morehead’s season shell is shut, however a contact softer in these areas at 72.4 factors per recreation, 49.7% eFG, 0.371 FTA/FGA, 15.4% turnover price, and 75.4 factors allowed. But the steady edge that retains Morehead reside beneath all of that’s the glass. The Eagles personal a 35.2% offensive rebound price and common 35.5 rebounds per recreation, in contrast with SEMO’s 28.4% ORB price and 33.5 rebounds per recreation. In a neutral-floor semifinal, that issues as a result of further possessions age higher than scorching capturing.
Morehead enters on a seven-game profitable streak and has received 11 of its final 13. During that streak, the Eagles have shot 48% from the sector, held three opponents to 63 factors or much less, and, per the college’s personal event preview, trailed for solely 24:34 complete over their final six video games. That is not only taking part in effectively. That is recreation management. SEMO’s current profile is much less convincing. The Redhawks survived Lindenwood 68-66 within the quarterfinal on a shot with 3.1 seconds left, and their last-five box-score run was a lot shakier: 42.4% from the sector, 29.7% from three, and 11.8 turnovers per recreation. They have nonetheless been discovering methods to win, however the form of these wins has been survival. Morehead’s present type appears to be like extra repeatable as a result of it’s being constructed on rebounding, ball safety, and spending lengthy stretches in entrance.
SEMO has extra distributed top-end recognition, with Luke Almodovar (G) making First-Team All-OVC and BJ Ward (G) plus Brendan Terry (F) touchdown on the second crew. Almodovar leads the Redhawks at about 14.2 factors per recreation, Ward palms out 3.6-3.7 assists, and Terry leads the membership on the glass at roughly 5.4-5.6 rebounds. The broader résumé says steadiness; the recent-form layer says grind. Over SEMO’s final 5, the Redhawks have shot solely 42.4% from the sector and 29.7% from three, whereas averaging 11.8 turnovers per recreation, and two of their current wins got here in survival mode—56-53 in OT over UT Martin and 68-66 over Lindenwood, with SEMO trailing at halftime in opposition to Lindenwood earlier than needing a late game-winner. That provides SEMO a number of creators, nevertheless it additionally reveals a present model leaning on late-shot making, free-throw quantity, and simply sufficient composure to outlive chilly stretches reasonably than overwhelming groups with clear offensive circulation.
Morehead’s two-man backbone is cleaner for this matchup, and the current numbers make it look sturdier. George Marshall Jr. (G) is a First-Team All-OVC guard averaging 13.7 factors, capturing 37.3% from three and 84.1% on the line, whereas Jon Carroll (F) brings 11.4 factors and seven.7 rebounds on 58.2% capturing. The necessary half is how that pair has been functioning these days.
SEMO vs. Morehead State pick, finest wager
The counterargument is that SEMO already confirmed the blueprint within the 82-70 win. The Redhawks shot 51% from the sector, hit 9 threes, and turned the sport with a 20-8 edge in factors off turnovers. That is the most effective case for laying the quick quantity. But even that win doesn’t learn like structural domination. The rebound hole was solely 30-25, Morehead nonetheless shot 50%, and the most important swing got here from turnover conversion and shotmaking variance. On a impartial flooring, after Morehead has tightened its current profile and SEMO has began to look extra like a grinder than a front-runner, I don’t wish to pay for the prettier season pedigree over the cleaner present type. Add in some power context—Morehead getting into off the bye, SEMO having to spend actual power in a quarterfinal escape the evening earlier than—and the sting strikes additional towards the Eagles’ facet of the road.
The finest wager is Morehead State +2.5 (-108), playable to, truthfully, the moneyline. This is the form that captures what issues tonight: the higher rebounding base, the brisker legs, the decrease current turnover leakage, and the stronger current game-control receipts. I don’t need the overall as a result of SEMO’s free-throw strain can distort the beneath late, and I don’t need the crew totals as a result of they flip a multi-lane learn right into a one-lane ticket. The facet lets Morehead win with its full script. The approach it dies is SEMO profitable the whistle and getting one other perimeter shotmaking spike prefer it discovered within the second assembly, however the right-now model of this matchup nonetheless factors to the Eagles being the steadier event crew.
Projected rating: Morehead State 71, SE Missouri State 69.
Best wager: Morehead State +2.5 (-110) vs. SEMO
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