David Schoenfield
Multiple Authors
There are chilly begins to a season — after which there’s this begin from the Seattle Mariners, doing their perfect to indicate us what baseball in Yakutsk, Russia, may seem like.
In their first 13 games, the Mariners hit an abysmal .184, so regardless of a franchise-best 2.62 ERA over that span, they presently sit on the backside of the standings with a disappointing 4-9 file. They obtained swept this week in Texas, scoring three whole runs over three games and gathering simply 11 hits, culminating in a lackluster two-hit shutout on Wednesday.
Most irritating is their 2-3-4-5 hitters — Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena — are a mixed 26-for-195 (.133) with only one house run. Rodriguez and Naylor are each with out an extra-base hit, whereas Arozarena has three doubles, at the least. Rodriguez has a complete of seven hits on the season, and Naylor has simply 5 to go together with a minus-49 WRC+.
It’s Raleigh, nonetheless, who faces the early intense scrutiny out of that group, coming off his record-setting 60-home run season however off to a troublesome first two weeks. He’s hitting .143 with one house run on seven hits and a whopping 21 strikeouts, which is the second most in MLB.
With the Mariners internet hosting the division-rival Houston Astros in ESPN’s MLB Game of the Day at 9:40 p.m. ET on Saturday (accessible on the ESPN App), let’s dig into Raleigh’s begin and see what is going on on with him — and his teammates.
Breaking down Raleigh’s at-bats
I watched all 55 of Raleigh’s plate appearances by means of Wednesday’s sport — each single one of many 248 pitches he has seen. On the pleasure scale, this task rated someplace between “eating a hot dog at the Kingdome back in the day that had probably been cooked three days earlier” and “watching Bobby Ayala close out games in 1998.”
Here are takeaways from quite a few notable at-bats:
Game 1/PA No. 2: Struck out swinging on an 0-2 changeup from Cleveland Guardians righty Tanner Bibee. An ideal pitch on the surface nook, diving away from Raleigh, no disgrace there. But the first pitch of the at-bat was a four-seam fastball proper down the center that Raleigh took for a strike.
Game 1/PA No. 4: Trailing 5-4 within the eighth inning, Raleigh obtained forward 2-0 however swung over a slider from Erik Sabrowski, ultimately hanging out wanting on a 2-2 slider that was outdoors (and which Raleigh ought to have challenged).
Game 2/PA No. 1: Raleigh struck out in an eight-pitch at-bat towards Gavin Williams, fouling off a 3-2 cutter that was down the center with out a lot motion after which whiffing on a depraved 3-2 cutter that rode in off the plate.
Game 2/PA No. 4: Struck out wanting towards Peyton Pallette for his fourth strikeout of the sport and seventh in two games. It was a curveball, approach outdoors, a pitch that Raleigh, once more, ought to have challenged.
We’ll notice right here that Raleigh — like Rodriguez, Naylor and Arozarena — performed on this yr’s World Baseball Classic. Much was made, after all, of Raleigh not shaking arms with Arozarena (after which Naylor in one other sport). However, after Arozarena’s apology for comments he made about the interaction in a postgame interview, everybody appeared to enter the common season on good phrases. With so a lot of their key gamers scattered throughout WBC groups, the Mariners had a horrible spring coaching at 11-19. When Raleigh did play, he scuffled, going 8-for-32 with one house run and 12 strikeouts after which went 0-for-9 within the WBC, getting benched for Will Smith for Team USA’s closing two games. Yes, given all this, you’ll be able to think about that native sports activities radio in Seattle spends about two hours a day speaking concerning the WBC.
Game 5/PA No. 1: Coming off the bench to pinch hit in a 1-1 sport with two runners on towards the New York Yankees, Raleigh obtained forward 2-0 towards lefty reliever Brent Headrick however then swung and missed at a slider approach down out of the strike zone, ultimately hanging out on a great 2-2 splitter low and away.
Game 6/PA No. 4: After going 0-for-3 towards lefty Max Fried, Raleigh once more confronted Headrick. The first pitch is a 93-mph fastball center away that he swings by means of. He ultimately strikes out swinging on the very same pitch.
A key to Raleigh’s monster 2025 season was his enchancment towards left-handed pitching. He hit .281/.351/.681 with 22 house runs in 185 at-bats towards lefties, after hitting simply .183 towards them in 2024. Those two fastballs from Headrick have been the kind of middle-of-the-zone pitches that Raleigh demolished final yr — from each side of the plate.
Look at his numbers towards pitches within the vertical center of the strike zone, which means round belt excessive:
2025: .290/.333/.695, 26 HRs in 210 at-bats
2026: .105/.261/263, 1 HR in 19 at-bats
It’s clearly a really small pattern dimension, however he wasn’t lacking these pitches in 2025. His contact fee on them was 80.7% final yr and is simply 67.6% up to now in 2026. His contact towards pitches wherever within the strike zone has declined from 78.4% to 65.8%. Even in 2024, that in-zone contact fee was 77.0%.
Raleigh is analogous in some trend to Bryce Harper in his swing choices. Even although each draw quite a lot of walks, each additionally swing-and-miss loads and chase out of the strike zone. Last yr, Raleigh drew 97 walks though his chase fee was beneath common, within the twenty fifth percentile. But when the pitcher made a mistake, Raleigh usually crushed it. That in-zone contact fee is the massive concern. Out of 187 certified hitters up to now, solely Jose Caballero has a worse in-zone contact fee than Raleigh (and Rodriguez is 181st).
Game 8/PA No. 3: Raleigh flies out to left area towards the Los Angeles Angels left-hander Reid Detmers on a 2-2 fastball up and in, a superbly situated four-seamer. Here’s the wonderful factor: With an exit velocity of 100.7 mph, it was the first hard-hit ball (a ball of 95-plus mph) of the season for Raleigh … in his twenty eighth at-bat.
Game 9/PA No. 1: Facing Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, Raleigh hit a fly ball to the wall in proper area at Angel Stadium… and Jo Adell robbed him of a house run (certainly one of three he would rob within the sport).
Last yr, perhaps that ball travels an additional three ft. If this sport is in June, it is most likely a house run. Indeed, it hasn’t helped that the Mariners performed their first seven games in Seattle — and Seattle in April is concerning the hardest place to hit within the majors. They performed two night time games in Anaheim, one other powerful place to hit. They performed three games in Texas, the place Globe Life Field performed as the very best pitcher’s park within the majors final yr.
Game 9/PA No. 3: Facing Kochanowicz for a 3rd time, Raleigh falls behind on a questionable checked-swing strike on the first pitch, after which fouls off 4 pitches, together with two four-seamers (one up, one low and in). He lastly strikes out on a 96-mph 3-2 four-seamer approach up and out of the zone, a pitch with a 0% strike chance and the type of pitch a batter in a deep stoop provides at.
Game 11/PA No. 1: Texas righty Jacob deGrom tries to sneak a 3-2 fastball previous Raleigh within the first inning, however the pitch is useless middle within the strike zone and Raleigh crushes it to proper area for his first house run. Raleigh has seven hits in 2026: This is the one one categorized as a hard-hit ball.
Game 12/PA No. 2: Raleigh swings at a first-pitch cutter from Nathan Eovaldi, a pitch neglected over plate, however Raleigh is late and pops as much as shallow left area. He’ll swing at Eovaldi’s first pitch in his subsequent at-bat as nicely, hitting a foul ball earlier than ultimately hitting a bloop single.
Jumping on the first pitch was one thing that labored final yr for Raleigh. He hit .427 with 17 house runs in 82 at-bats when placing the first pitch in play. He was additionally one of the aggressive swingers on the first pitch, with the Thirteenth-highest first-pitch swing share amongst certified hitters. (In one other similarity, Harper had the second-highest share.)
This yr? Raleigh is simply 1-for-7 when placing the first pitch in play.
Game 13/PA No. 4: Raleigh flies out on a 3-2 cutter from Cole Winn, completely situated on the excessive outdoors nook. The good signal for Raleigh: This ball was hit at 92 mph and he had two different outs earlier within the sport that have been hard-hit outs. Maybe it is beginning to join.
What this season begin means for the Mariners
It’s exceptional to see a staff’s greatest hitters all struggling like this on the similar time. And to be clear: This is just not a case of unhealthy luck on balls in play or something like that. They’ve been unhealthy. Watching Raleigh’s 55 plate appearances was like watching an overmatched child simply referred to as up from Single-A. Raleigh’s swing-and-miss fee towards four-seamers and two-seamers is up from 25.2% final season to 50%. If you’ll be able to’t hit a fastball, you haven’t any probability on the plate. Rodriguez has equally been lacking fastballs, with a miss fee of 32.8% in comparison with 21.6% final yr.
And after they have made contact? It hasn’t been onerous contact. Check out these numbers on hard-hit charges by means of Seattle’s first 13 games in comparison with final season:
Mariners in 2025: 42.8% (4th in MLB)
Mariners in 2026: 34.2% (twenty ninth in MLB)
Raleigh in 2025: 49.6%
Raleigh in 2026: 21.4%
Rodriguez in 2025: 48.0%
Rodriguez in 2026: 36.4%
Naylor in 2025: 41.9%
Naylor in 2026: 35.0%
Arozarena in 2025: 50.6%
Arozarena in 2026: 44.1%
Even in hitting 60 house runs final yr, Raleigh was a streaky hitter — and even began slowly, hitting .184 with two house runs by means of his first 13 games. He had different stretches of 1 house run in 11 games, one in 10 games and three totally different stretches of 1 in 9 games. When he hit house runs, they got here in bunches, together with an unbelievable 11 two-homer games.
Rodriguez, in the meantime, has been a infamous sluggish starter all through his profession, with a profession first-half OPS of .726 and second-half OPS of .902. His profession OPS in August is 300 factors increased than it’s in April.
None of this alleviates the ugly begin however is probably proof that it is too early to panic. Then once more, for a franchise that missed the playoffs by one win in each 2023 and 2024, this sluggish begin may show expensive come September.
