David Schoenfield
Multiple Authors
Let’s get this out of the way in which proper off the bat: The playoff races within the American League for the West division and third wild-card spot are the worst in MLB historical past. Or possibly the weirdest, if you’d like a nicer description.
This week started with solely 4 AL groups posting profitable data. The Houston Astros and Texas Rangers have been tied for the AL West lead at 65-66 with the Cleveland Guardians matching them with the identical document, that means if the playoffs had began Monday, two groups with dropping data could be heading to the postseason. Five different groups have been inside 3½ video games of a playoff spot. But these races are so lame that the Seattle Mariners have misplaced video games in August by scores of 22-0, 19-2, 11-0 and 8-0 — and remained in the identical spot that they have been in firstly of the month, three video games out of first place within the division.
There have been mediocre groups to succeed in the playoffs earlier than, and there have even been three groups with dropping data to make the playoffs — however two of these got here within the expanded playoffs of the shortened 2020 season, which does not really matter, and the opposite got here within the break up season of 1981, which does not really matter both. By full-season profitable proportion, the worst playoff groups are:
• 2005 San Diego Padres: 82-80 (NL West champs)
• 1973 New York Mets: 82-79 (NL East champs)
• 2025 Cincinnati Reds: 83-79 (wild card)
• 2006 St. Louis Cardinals: 83-78 (NL Central champs)
• Five groups tied at 84-78
What makes this present race particularly unusual, although, is that solely one of many eight groups has a constructive run differential — and people Detroit Tigers by some means started the week with the worst document of the eight. Six of the eight groups aren’t even near breaking even in run differential.
But the principles are the principles: Two of those groups will make the playoffs. Maybe with sub-.500 data. Let’s dig into this and see what is going on on.
Houston Astros (66-66, minus-42 run differential)
Why they’re on this place: Yordan Alvarez is a Triple Crown candidate and the AL MVP favourite. Josh Hader is 19-for-19 in save probabilities with a 0.81 ERA after a late begin to his season.
Why they don’t seem to be higher: The rotation is twenty eighth within the majors with a 5.19 ERA, on tempo for the bottom WAR by a Houston rotation in franchise historical past.
How have the commerce deadline acquisitions completed? Daulton Varsho has hit .186 with six RBIs in 19 video games.
Schedule observe: They’re completed with the Rangers and have a troublesome journey to Philadelphia and Tampa Bay in mid-September, however the Astros finish the season with 4 video games on the highway in opposition to the struggling Athletics — though the A’s simply gained a collection in Houston.
Tiebreaker observe: Won the season collection 9-4 over the Rangers.
Random reality: Entering Monday, Astros starters have been averaging 4.54 walks 9 per innings, which might be essentially the most for a beginning rotation for the reason that 1987 Rangers issued 4.94 walks per 9 (Bobby Witt Sr. walked 140 batters in 143 innings that yr).
Texas Rangers (66-67, minus-41 run differential)
Why they’re on this place: Utility man Ezequiel Duran has began video games at seven totally different positions and leads the crew in WAR. Closer Jacob Latz (1.68 ERA, 26 saves) leads the pitchers in WAR. The Rangers have gone 22-13 in one-run video games.
Why they don’t seem to be higher: They’re tied for twenty fifth in runs per recreation, averaging 4.05. The 2023 World Series champions averaged 5.44 runs.
How have the commerce deadline acquisitions completed? Chase Silseth has been OK out of the bullpen, however Logan O’Hoppe spent most of August within the minors and Adam Macko has additionally been within the minors.
Schedule observe: They have an enormous nine-game homestand in September in opposition to the Boston, Toronto and the New York Mets earlier than ending with a collection in Minnesota. Texas is finished with the Astros and has one collection left in opposition to the Mariners.
Tiebreaker observe: The Rangers misplaced that season collection to Houston, however they already maintain the tiebreaker over the Mariners, Guardians, Blue Jays and Orioles, with the Twins to be decided (Texas is 0-3 in opposition to Minnesota).
Random reality: Evan Carter is batting .196. The solely qualifying Rangers hitter to complete a non-COVID season hitting beneath .200 was Jim Sundberg, who hit .199 in 1975.
Cleveland Guardians (67-66, minus-5 run differential)
Why they’re on this place: They’ve used solely six beginning pitchers all season, with commerce deadline acquisition Foster Griffin becoming a member of the rotation after coming from the Washington Nationals. The rotation is seventh within the majors in ERA and third in innings pitched.
Why they don’t seem to be higher: The Guardians are tied for next-to-last in residence runs, tied for twenty fifth in batting common and twenty seventh in wOBA.
How have the commerce deadline acquisitions completed? Griffin has gone 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA in 4 begins. Jo Adell has 4 residence runs and 18 RBIs in 19 video games. Nathaniel Lowe has 11 RBIs and a .658 OPS. The Guardians made some important strikes for a change and so they’ve helped, regardless that Cleveland has gone 11-11 in August.
Schedule observe: Cleveland has solely two collection the remainder of the way in which in opposition to groups that presently have a profitable document, the White Sox and Red Sox, each within the closing two weeks.
Tiebreaker observe: The Guardians misplaced the season collection to each the Astros and Rangers however maintain the tiebreaker in opposition to the Mariners and Tigers. Cleveland nonetheless has collection to play in opposition to the Twins, Blue Jays and Orioles that can decide these season outcomes.
Random reality: The Guardians are hitting .201 with two outs and runners in scoring place, twenty eighth within the majors.
Toronto Blue Jays (64-69, minus-57 run differential)
Why they’re on this place: Dylan Cease is difficult for the Cy Young Award (though has solely eight wins) and the mixture of Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland has been among the finest reduction duos within the majors.
Why they don’t seem to be higher: Kazuma Okamoto and George Springer are the one hitters with double-digit residence runs, and Okamoto and Alejandro Kirk are the one regulars with an above-average OPS (and Kirk was on the injured checklist for 2 months).
How have the commerce deadline acquisitions completed? The Jays performed it each methods, buying and selling Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho and Jeff Hoffman whereas bringing in Jose Soriano, Spencer Arrighetti and Jameson Taillon. Soriano has been OK in 4 begins, Arrighetti has made just one reduction look and Taillon received harm. Brett Bateman, acquired within the Gausman commerce, has changed Varsho because the common heart fielder and has been hitting leadoff. The Jays have gone 13-10 up to now in August.
Schedule observe: The Jays are completed with the Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees and Red Sox — who the heck designed this schedule? — and their lone interleague collection is the season-ender in opposition to a foul Reds crew. This is a really favorable slate that would assist the Jays squeak again into the postseason.
Tiebreaker observe: They break up 3-3 with the Astros and are 2-1 in opposition to the Guardians and 0-3 in opposition to the Rangers with a collection left in opposition to these latter two groups.
Random reality: Believe it or not, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. nonetheless hasn’t homered at residence this season.
Minnesota Twins (64-69, minus-53 run differential)
Why they’re on this place: They have three gamers with 20-plus residence runs (Byron Buxton, Kody Clemens and Brooks Lee). Ryan Jeffers has been among the finest hitting catchers within the recreation when he wasn’t on the IL. Josh Bell has hit round .350 with an OPS over 1.000 with runners in scoring place.
Why they don’t seem to be higher: The again of the rotation has been dangerous. They’ve gone 16-29 in interleague video games. Their crew defensive metrics are among the many worst within the majors.
How have the commerce deadline acquisitions completed? The Twins added pitching assist with starter Dean Kremer and relievers Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter. Kremer has been an enormous carry to the rotation, with a 3.18 ERA in 4 begins, and Hoffman and Minter have offered some much-needed bullpen depth.
Schedule observe: There are loads of video games in opposition to AL Central foes, together with six every in opposition to the Chicago White Sox and Tigers (12 video games in a row in opposition to these groups beginning Friday). The Twins even have collection in opposition to the Guardians and Yankees and end at residence in opposition to the Rangers.
Tiebreaker observe: Minnesota went 4-2 in opposition to the Astros and 4-3 in opposition to the Blue Jays, clinching these season collection, and is 3-0 in opposition to the Rangers. The Twins are 6-4 in opposition to the Guardians, in order that they want one win to clinch that collection.
Random reality: The Twins collapsed in September 2024, lacking the playoffs after going 9-18 the ultimate month. Last yr, they’d the teardown on the commerce deadline and went 19-35 over the ultimate two months. This yr, they’re 8-14 in August with three walk-off losses.
Baltimore Orioles (64-68, minus-23 run differential)
Why they’re on this place: They’re third within the majors in walks. They’ve had 4 starters make at the least 22 begins. Pete Alonso has been producing runs after a gradual begin.
Why they don’t seem to be higher: Gunnar Henderson is hitting .219, Jackson Holliday is hitting .236, Coby Mayo is hitting .212 and Colton Cowser is hitting .219. Nine totally different pitchers have saves, with the injured Ryan Helsley main the crew with eight.
How have the commerce deadline acquisitions completed? Despite going 15-8 in July and rallying from a 7-0 deficit in opposition to Tarik Skubal and the Tigers on July 29 to drag off an inconceivable 10-9 victory, the Orioles as an alternative elected to commerce Adley Rutschman, Taylor Ward, Dean Kremer and Tyler Wells. Despite going 5-2 in opposition to first-place Tampa Bay in August, they’re nonetheless 10-12 for the month.
Schedule observe: Baltimore is completed with the Rays however nonetheless has collection left in opposition to the Yankees (the season finale), Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers, plus two in opposition to the Blue Jays.
Tiebreaker observe: The Orioles maintain the tiebreaker over Houston and Detroit, lose it to Seattle and Texas, and break up in opposition to Minnesota. They’re 3-4 in opposition to the Blue Jays and 1-3 in opposition to the Guardians.
Random reality: The Orioles lead the majors in proportion of balls hit at 95-plus mph, at over 40%, and likewise lead in common exit velocity. So, they hit the ball arduous. But they’re twenty sixth in strikeout price, in order that they’re usually not placing the ball in play.
Seattle Mariners (64-69, minus-51 run differential)
Why they’re on this place: The beginning pitching has been fairly strong, at the least till not too long ago (they’re nonetheless first within the majors in rotation innings). Randy Arozarena (4.4) and Cole Young (4.0) have produced 4-win seasons (Baseball-Reference loves Young’s protection).
Why they don’t seem to be higher: Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, Bryan Woo and J.P. Crawford. Arguably the Mariners’ 5 greatest gamers final season, they’ve mixed for simply 4.4 WAR up to now this season after totaling 23.9 in 2025.
How have the commerce deadline acquisitions completed? Taylor Ward has been an enormous zero, hitting .122/.232/.163.
Schedule observe: After a visit to Toronto and Boston beginning this weekend, the Mariners could not ask for a neater September: A’s and Rangers at residence; A’s, Angels and Rockies on the highway; and Astros and Angels at residence to wrap it up.
Tiebreaker observe: Seattle has clinched in opposition to the Astros with a 9-2 season lead (with two video games left) however has already conceded to the Rangers with a 3-7 document (three video games remaining). Still, that probably offers the Mariners the sting in a three-way tie: They’re 12-9, the Rangers are 11-12 and the Astros are 11-13 in head-to-head motion among the many three groups.
Random reality: Raleigh’s 369-point drop in OPS could be the most important since Mark McGwire fell 421 factors from 2000 to 2001 (and retired). Though, a three-homer recreation on Monday did alone increase his OPS 39 factors. Want one other? Bryce Miller began the 22-0 and 19-2 losses in consecutive outings, making him the primary pitcher to lose consecutive begins by at the least 17 runs for the reason that immortal George Van Haltren of the 1890 Brooklyn Wonders of the short-lived Players League (he was a very good outfielder with 40 profession WAR, however apparently a awful pitcher).
Detroit Tigers (62-70, plus-73 run differential)
Why they’re on this place: Kevin McGonigle and Dillon Dingler have been two of the very best gamers within the majors. Troy Melton has a 1.60 ERA in 15 begins. Keider Montero has quietly posted a 3.30 ERA and three.3 WAR.
Why they don’t seem to be higher: The bullpen. Though the Tigers are ninth in bullpen ERA, they rank twenty eighth in reduction win likelihood added as they’re 18-42 in video games determined by one or two runs.
How have the commerce deadline acquisitions completed? You may bear in mind Detroit punted on the deadline, buying and selling Skubal and Casey Mize, who each had sub-3.00 ERAs.
Schedule observe: The Tigers have 4 interleague collection remaining (in opposition to the Los Angeles Dodgers, Rockies, Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates), in order that they have much less means to assist themselves in head-to-head motion in opposition to the opposite AL wild-card contenders.
Tiebreaker observe: They’ve already misplaced the season collection to the Guardians, Twins, Orioles and Astros whereas holding the sting in opposition to the Mariners and Rangers. Detroit is 1-2 in opposition to Toronto.
Random reality: The Tigers are going for some sort of doubtful “worst” document with “best” run differential. Only 4 groups since 1900 have completed with at the least a plus-70 run differential and a non-winning document: 2006 Cleveland (plus-88, 78-84), 1985 Red Sox (plus-83, 81-81), 2025 Rangers (plus-79, 81-81) and 2005 Blue Jays (plus-70, 80-82).