Half of the Final Four is about! On Saturday, Illinois and Arizona punched their tickets to Indianapolis. Now it is time to determine the ultimate two spots.
Tennessee takes on top-seeded Michigan to begin, earlier than a battle of two groups with 11 championships between them in UConn and Duke.
ESPN faculty basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their predictions for each, plus break down the keys for every workforce.
2:15 p.m. ET, CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Michigan, 80-68
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan, 85-69
How Tennessee can advance to the Final Four: To attain the nationwide semifinals for the primary time in program historical past, the Vols must execute an ideal recreation plan. The X’s and O’s of this recreation will matter, however they cannot beat Michigan except Nate Ament and Ja’Kobi Gillespie mix to have a collective efficiency worthy of creating the “One Shining Moment” spotlight reel.
Felix Okpara, who has 10 blocks over the previous three video games, must maintain his personal in opposition to the perfect frontcourt in America, too. He has to keep away from foul hassle to be accessible down the stretch. The Vols may also should dictate this matchup by making it a battle within the paint — the one place they will win as a result of they’re the No. 1 offensive rebounding workforce within the nation. Still, it appears seemingly they may want a unprecedented effort to outlive Michigan.
How Michigan can advance to the Final Four: An Alabama workforce ranked third nationally in adjusted offensive effectivity took 31 pictures within the second half of its loss to Michigan, and 23 of them had been 3-point makes an attempt. The Wolverines not solely defend the paint — opposing groups make simply 48.9% of their pictures within the publish in opposition to them, per Synergy Sports — however additionally they restrict the kind of pictures opponents can take.
Michigan’s offense has been just about unstoppable this season. Its jumbo lineup is an issue solely three groups have solved (Duke, Purdue, Wisconsin). If the Wolverines can restrict second-chance alternatives for a Tennessee workforce that ranks first nationally in offensive rebounding charge and drive the Vols into pictures exterior the paint, Michigan might be on its technique to the Final Four. — Medcalf
5:05 p.m. ET, TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: UConn, 71-70
Medcalf’s prediction: Duke, 76-64
How UConn can advance to the Final Four: The Huskies can attain their third nationwide semifinal in 4 seasons by outplaying Duke within the paint. That begins with Tarris Reed Jr. avoiding foul hassle. Cameron Boozer is 53rd within the nation in fouls drawn per 40 minutes — a few fast fouls in opposition to Reed might be the distinction on this recreation.
Boozer’s flaw has been turnovers; he had 4 in Duke’s two losses this season (Texas Tech and North Carolina). The Huskies must drive and capitalize on turnovers. And they do have the guard depth and dimension to harass a less-than-100% Caleb Foster and Isaiah Evans on the perimeter. They should drive Duke into robust pictures then keep away from scoring droughts just like the one which led them to squander a 25-6 lead in opposition to Michigan State. That will be expensive in opposition to the Blue Devils.
How Duke can advance to the Final Four: It’s clear the Blue Devils aren’t 100%. Patrick Ngongba II has performed simply 29 complete minutes in two NCAA match video games since coming back from a proper foot fracture that value him 5 video games. And although Foster scored 11 key factors within the second half of their Sweet 16 win, he did not appear to be the standout guard we have seen all through the season. Still, the Blue Devils can advance with the identical punishing method within the paint that has labored for them this postseason.
Since the beginning of the ACC match, Duke has made simply 30% of its 3-point makes an attempt. It has additionally made 57% of its pictures contained in the arc and grabbed 45% of its missed pictures, a top-five mark over that stretch. Even although the Blue Devils have been chilly from the perimeter, they proceed to win by following Cameron Boozer’s lead and proudly owning the paint. They must clear up Tarris Reed Jr., although. The Huskies’ 6-foot-11 heart has been a drive on each ends of the ground these days, posting double-doubles in two of his three NCAA match video games to this point. — Medcalf
