The first half of the Elite Eight is ready with Arizona, Illinois, Purdue and Iowa punching their tickets Thursday. Who may be a part of them within the regional finals of the 2026 males’s NCAA match?
ESPN faculty basketball reporters Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf make their picks for every Sweet 16 game Friday and break down every group’s keys to advancing.
All occasions Eastern.
7:10 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: Duke 73-71
Medcalf’s prediction: Duke 77-70
How St. John’s can advance to the Elite Eight: The focus of Rick Pitino’s game plan towards Duke clearly can be centered on slowing down Cameron Boozer. St. John’s has one of many elite defenses in faculty basketball, however what the Red Storm haven’t got is the form of size and athleticism which have troubled Boozer at occasions. Much of the duty will fall on the person defensive skills of Zuby Ejiofor and Dillon Mitchell, with the latter in all probability tasked with chasing Isaiah Evans within the half court docket.
Offensively, the Red Storm must sustain their improved 3-point capturing. Before the NCAA match, they hadn’t made double-digit 3s in a game since Jan. 10. They’ve now carried out it in each match video games, together with 11 towards Kansas.
How Duke can advance to Elite Eight: Duke has two areas of benefit on every group: Boozer and its protection. When the Blue Devils turned up the warmth defensively towards TCU within the second spherical and commenced taking part in by Boozer on the offensive finish, they started to dominate the Horned Frogs and utterly modified the game. Boozer is the most efficient participant on the court docket every time he performs, though Pitino, a Hall of Fame coach, and Big East Player of the Year Ejiofor will hope to sluggish him down.
Duke’s protection, the top-ranked unit in adjusted defensive effectivity at KenPom, has only a few weaknesses — however the Red Storm aren’t constructed within the best vogue to trigger constant issues for the Blue Devils. They’ve shot the ball higher just lately, however they’re removed from a constant 3-point capturing group, and so they rely closely on offensive rebounds and free throws. Duke does an unimaginable job of limiting opponents in each areas. — Borzello
7:35 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Michigan 92-83
Medcalf’s prediction: Michigan 90-80
How Alabama can advance to the Elite Eight: It’s not a secret, however Alabama might want to make a barrage of 3s to have any probability of staying shut with Michigan. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in 3-pointers made per game, 3-point makes an attempt per game and 3-point try charge. They made 19 3s in a second-round win over Texas Tech. That has to proceed towards Michigan, as it will likely be be extraordinarily tough to attain constantly on the rim towards Aday Mara and Morez Johnson Jr. Defensively, it’ll be an uphill battle. Alabama has given up big scoring efforts to good groups on a number of events, and the Crimson Tide rank in the course of the pack within the SEC in defensive effectivity.
This game goes to function loads of factors and loads of tempo. Alabama will not again down from a operating game with Michigan, and a shootout may play into the Tide’s fingers.
How Michigan can advance to Elite Eight: When Michigan leans into its strengths — its frontcourt, measurement and skill to dominate the paint at each ends of the court docket — there are few groups within the nation able to competing with the Wolverines for 40 minutes. Mara is a pressure on the rim defensively, and is changing into a extra constant possibility on offense, and Yaxel Lendeborg has proven he can take over video games on offense. Alabama would not have the ability or expertise up entrance to match Michigan, and would not supply a lot rim safety, rating close to the underside of the SEC in block proportion.
The different key for the Wolverines can be whether or not Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett can decelerate star Alabama guard Labaron Philon Jr., who had 29 factors within the first spherical and 12 assists within the second spherical. He’s able to carrying the Crimson Tide. — Borzello
9:45 p.m., CBS
Borzello’s prediction: UConn 68-64
Medcalf’s prediction: UConn 70-65
How Michigan State can advance to Elite Eight: Personnel matchups generate essentially the most headlines throughout the NCAA match, however teaching matchups are equally — if no more — impactful. During a tenure that started in 1995, Tom Izzo has developed an uncanny capacity to zero in on an opposing group’s prime gamers and create issues for them. That’s the Spartans’ ticket to a different Elite Eight.
Izzo’s main mission towards UConn is to restrict Tarris Reed Jr.’s affect on the game. The Huskies are a unique group when he is a dominant presence within the submit. If Reed is grabbing offensive rebounds and giving them an abundance of second-chance alternatives, Michigan State can be in a troublesome spot. The excellent news for the Spartans is that they’re connecting on 35.9% of their 3-point makes an attempt and capitalizing on second-chance alternatives with a No. 10 nationwide rating in offensive rebounding charge. It can be key for them to hit extra 3s, prolong UConn’s protection and create extra paths to the basket for (*16*). & Co. They have to provide UConn a purpose to protect on the perimeter — if the Spartans simply permit the Huskies to sit down within the lane, problem photographs across the rim and seize rebounds, Michigan State may lose.
Izzo has been on this place earlier than — towards higher groups — and gained. His expertise will matter in a matchup towards Dan Hurley.
How UConn can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Izzo, UConn should present up because the top-notch defensive outfit that held UCLA to only a 39% clip contained in the arc within the second spherical. The Huskies’ win over the Bruins served as a reminder that they could be a nice defensive group after they need to be. In the Big Ten match, UCLA had produced 132 factors per 100 possessions in a win over Michigan State. In the spherical of 32, the Bruins — who performed with out main scorer Tyler Bilodeau (knee) — scored solely 57 factors, their second-lowest whole of the season. UCLA star Donovan Dent had 9 assists but in addition completed 2-for-9 capturing with a pair of turnovers. That’s the identical consideration UConn might want to give Fears. When he is comfy, Michigan State’s offense soars. The Huskies cannot let that occur.
On offense, Braylon Mullins might be an X issue. Reed had a double-double towards UCLA however not the historic numbers he put up towards Furman within the first spherical (31 factors, 27 rebounds). Alex Karaban recorded a career-high 27 factors towards the Bruins, with Solo Ball and Silas Demary Jr. scoring two factors mixed. If Reed and Karaban can create a balanced inside-outside assault, Michigan State should discover a technique to disrupt that, which may give Mullins — who’s averaging 14.5 factors in two NCAA match video games — extra freedom and alternatives to make performs and create off the dribble or on off-ball screens.
The Huskies have a mess of choices to attain, and so long as most of them are efficient, they will get again to the Elite Eight. — Medcalf
10:10 p.m., TBS/truTV
Borzello’s prediction: Iowa State 67-65
Medcalf’s prediction: Iowa State 74-68
How Tennessee can advance to the Elite Eight: To beat Iowa State, Tennessee should play the identical disciplined protection that stopped Virginia within the remaining minutes of Sunday’s second-round game. That job begins with Felix Okpara, who had 4 blocks towards the Cavaliers and altered different photographs, together with a late drive by Thijs De Ridder that Okpara blocked throughout Virginia’s comeback try. Opposing gamers had made solely 30% of their photographs across the rim towards Okpara getting into Sunday’s game, per Synergy Sports information. He’ll have to guard the rim towards Iowa State, which had a major benefit in paint factors towards Kentucky (34-20) — however he will not must do it alone.
Tennessee has the personnel to deal with every one-on-one matchup defensively. The Vols can guard at every spot. They should put stress on Tamin Lipsey, sharpshooter Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson, if he performs, to win. That defensive effort coupled with standout performances from Ja’Kobi Gillespie and Nate Ament can be the method for a Tennessee journey to the Elite Eight.
How Iowa State can advance to the Elite Eight: With or with out Jefferson, Iowa State may have the identical blueprint towards Tennessee: Move the ball to seek out one of the best shot on offense, pressure turnovers with defensive stress and rating on quick breaks. Although they did not have Jefferson, who’s a game-time decision due to an ankle harm, the Cyclones pressured 20 turnovers of their second-round win over Kentucky. Playing by Lipsey — who completed with 26 factors, 10 assists and solely three turnovers towards Kentucky — the Cyclones registered 150 factors per 100 possessions and made 63% of their photographs after halftime. They are 18-2 when Lipsey’s assist-to-turnover ratio is 3-to-1 or higher.
Gillespie and Ament mixed for 5 turnovers in Tennessee’s second-round win over Virginia. Iowa State can stress that duo into the identical errors Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen (eight turnovers mixed) made for Kentucky, even when Jefferson sits out one other game. That’s how the Cyclones can advance. — Medcalf
