The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers would every have given something to win once they met in Game 7 final spring with a berth in the Eastern Conference Final on the road.
On Saturday, they’ll play once more at Scotiabank Arena with the one actual victory to be discovered in a loss.
It’s a peculiar situation rooted in an NHL season turned the other way up. All the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions (Florida) and homeowners of the league’s longest playoff streak (Toronto) are left competing for coming into the ultimate week of the common season are higher odds in the draft lottery.
Entering Game 80, the Leafs and Panthers have similar .494 factors percentages — a part of a three-way tie with the Seattle Kraken for fifth worst in the general standings. It’s seemingly that the winner of Saturday’s sport will find yourself in a worse place than the loser coming into the May 5 draft lottery.
The stakes are significantly excessive for Toronto, which will get to preserve its first-round choose this June solely in the occasion it lands inside the highest 5. Otherwise, it’s earmarked for the Boston Bruins to full the Brandon Carlo commerce.
Securing a high draft alternative is an interesting consequence as a result of it might signify a small comfort on the finish of a season gone unexpectedly awry for the Leafs. It would additionally increase the group’s possibilities of making good on a want to rapidly return to a aggressive window, bringing a high quality younger asset into the fold who might be a part of the prevailing staff or be flipped in a commerce.
While the Leafs themselves have proven completely no inclination to manipulate outcomes to make it occur — they continued to costume a veteran-heavy lineup after being formally eradicated from playoff rivalry and referred to as up a cadre of kids from the American Hockey League this week solely when accidents necessitated — one of the best path ahead, statistically talking, is simple.
Lose.
And then lose once more.
If they climb from their present place in the standings by selecting up factors over the remaining three video games, the one avenue to a top-five choose is by successful the lottery for both the No. 1 or No. 2 choice in May.
The possibilities of hitting on a kind of would seemingly fall someplace between 1-in-13 and 1-in-20, relying on their ultimate putting.
Should the Leafs sputter out in the stretch drive and maintain their present degree in the standings, nonetheless, they’d retain a path to a top-five choose just by having the groups beneath them win these lottery drawings with a lot better odds.
That’s the easiest way to preserve their choose from ending up in Boston.
Losing to a Panthers staff that bears little resemblance to the one which hammered the Leafs 6-1 in Game 7 final May is sort of important. Lately, the Leafs have been dropping to virtually everybody, getting outshot 44-16 whereas getting beat 5-3 on Long Island on Thursday night time.
It’s been a equally robust run for a Florida staff knocked off its perch this season by a pervasive run of accidents. The Panthers are at the moment down eight regulars – Aleksander Barkov, Brad Marchand, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, Anton Lundell, Evan Rodrigues, Aaron Ekblad and Dmitry Kulikov – they usually’ve gained simply three of their final 10 video games.
The step-back season has been rather more palatable for Florida as a result of the Panthers have made three straight journeys to the Stanley Cup Final and have already got their complete core locked in long run. An prolonged summer time to heal and relaxation ought to deliver them proper again to contender standing, by no means thoughts the alternatives the entrance workplace may have to make enhancements.
That will seemingly embrace a excessive draft choose in June they will placed on the commerce market, as a result of the Panthers’ 2026 first-round choice was top-10 protected once they traded it to the Chicago Blackhawks for Seth Jones final year.
What occurs Saturday will issue into how excessive that choose finally ends up touchdown — on either side.
Of course, there’s no implication right here that any of this can be on the minds of gamers or coaches when the puck drops.
The NHL shouldn’t be the NBA, the place tanking is a part of the day by day dialogue and a number of groups have been fined for taking anti-competitive measures this season. The NHL seems to have discovered a candy spot to discourage the follow by flattening the chances assigned to its worst groups and limiting every franchise to two lottery wins inside a rolling five-year interval.
In each actions and phrases, the Leafs steered nicely away from making an attempt to manifest a higher long-term consequence as soon as this season bought away from them. The reality is that they’ve misplaced 47 of 79 video games as a result of they merely weren’t adequate.
“There is zero chance — zero chance — that the Toronto Maple Leafs will tank,” Keith Pelley, MLSE’s CEO and president, mentioned just lately. “I don’t believe in it. Ownership doesn’t believe in it. I grew up in an environment when you played sports you tried to win every single game.
“We’ll try to win every single game.”
On Saturday night time, nonetheless, their followers will be forgiven for quietly hoping they proceed to fall brief.
