March 16, 2026, 9:45 a.m. ET
- Holy Bull winner Nearly, skilled by Todd Pletcher, leads our rating of the top 5 horses on the Kentucky Derby path.
- Two key prep races are set for Saturday — the Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.
Incredibolt moved into the image for Kentucky Derby 152 with Saturday’s victory within the $500,000 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.
Trained by Riley Mott, Incredibolt earned 50 qualifying factors towards the Kentucky Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs, just about clinching a spot within the Run for the Roses.
The subsequent three weekends are the largest on the path to the Kentucky Derby, with a complete of seven races every providing a complete of 200 qualifying factors towards the Run for the Roses. Those embrace 100 factors for the winners and 50 factors for the runners-up.
Buy tickets to Kentucky Derby 152 at Churchill Downs
Two of these races are set for this Saturday — the $777,000, Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and the $1 million, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.
With seven weeks to go till the Kentucky Derby, right here’s our rating of the top 5 contenders:
Owner: Centennial Farms (Donald Little).
Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Jockey: John Velazquez.
Sire: Not This Time.
Road to Kentucky Derby factors: 20 (No. 21).
Career earnings: $249,900.
Last race: Won Grade 3 Holy Bull on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream.
Likely subsequent race: Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream.
Owners: Mrs. John Magnier; Michael Tabor; Derrick Smith; Peter Brant; Brook Smith; Summer Wind Equine (Jane Lyon).
Trainer: Chad Brown.
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione.
Sire: Gun Runner.
Road to Kentucky Derby factors: 60 (No. 1).
Career earnings: $484,250.
Last race: Won Grade 2 Risen Star on Feb. 14 at Fair Grounds.
Likely subsequent race: Grade 1 Blue Grass on April 4 at Keeneland.
Owner: Wathnan Racing (Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani).
Trainer: Brad Cox.
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Sire: Into Mischief.
Road to Kentucky Derby factors: 50 (No. 6).
Career earnings: $403,539.
Last race: Won Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28 at Gulfstream.
Likely subsequent race: Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream.
Owners: Robert and Lawana Low; Repole Stable (Mike Repole).
Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Sire: Into Mischief.
Road to Kentucky Derby factors: 25 (No. 14).
Career earnings: $199,000.
Last race: Won Sam F. Davis on Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay.
Likely subsequent race: Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on March 28 at Oaklawn.
Owners: Michael & Katherine Ball.
Trainer: Bill Mott.
Jockey: Junior Alvarado.
Sire: Constitution.
Road to Kentucky Derby factors: 25 (No. 15).
Career earnings: $117,600.
Last race: Second in Grade 2 Fountain of Youth on Feb. 28 at Gulfstream.
Likely subsequent race: Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream.
Jason Frakes: 502-582-4046; jfrakes@courier-journal.com; Follow on X @KentuckyDerby_CJ
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