For higher or worse, beforehand unbeaten Miami (Ohio) can be a serious speaking level till the NCAA Tournament’s selection committee submits its closing bracket on Selection Sunday. The RedHawks suffered a shocking loss on Thursday in the first spherical of the MAC Tournament to UMass, which can probably open the door for the league to get two groups in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1999.
Despite the loss, Miami (Ohio) remains to be projected to be in the discipline as an at-large crew. In our latest CBS Sports Bracketology projections, now we have Miami University as a No. 11 seed however avoiding the First Four.
This 12 months’s bubble is shaping as much as be traditionally weak, which helps Miami’s case to get in as an at-large crew. Still, Miami’s resume will definitely even be a speaking level even after the bracket is revealed. The RedHawks have simply three wins categorized as Quad 2 (as of Saturday) and did not play a Quad 1 crew all through the common season.
Miami (Ohio) stunned by UMass, still projected in NCAA Tournament field — but the fallout could be big
Cameron Salerno
In the WAB (wins above bubble) rankings, Miami is No. 38 (+1.68). It’s a key metric the selection committee will use to find out who will get in and who stays residence. For context, in our newest projections, the final 4 groups in the discipline are Santa Clara, Missouri, VCU and SMU. Missouri (No. 41), VCU (No. 42) and SMU (No. 46) all rank under Miami in WAB.
After Miami accomplished an undefeated common season, CBS Sports’ Matt Norlander wrote the RedHawks were a lock to achieve the NCAA Tournament. Although there may be some (mild) sweating heading into Sunday, Miami seems secure to go dancing for the first time since 2007.
Here is what our CBS Sports consultants take into consideration Miami (Ohio) heading into the weekend.
What should the committee do with Miami (Ohio)?
Matt Norlander
Miami will 100% be in the NCAA Tournament. This is just not topic to debate. I perceive why some need to speculate. The predictive numbers do not even say this can be a top-80 crew in the nation. I get that. Did not lose a sport in the common season. There is immense worth to that. And there’s additionally a larger profound significance to recognizing what it means to do this as a D-I crew and your placement into the nationwide event. It will occur. The WAB quantity being top-40 makes it a lock. And the RedHawks should be.
I’m going to say Miami’s a No. 11 (seed), however that it dodges Dayton. So: one in every of the two No. 11 seeds not in the First Four. however not a No. 11 going to Dayton. So two of these No. 11 seeds feed into Dayton and two don’t. I believe the loss to UMass (Quad 3) bumps them off the No. 10 line, although I would not be shocked in any respect if it was a No. 10. I’d welcome it, in reality. But the poor predictive numbers will justify the committee placing this crew with an 11 subsequent to its identify.
David Cobb
Miami should be in the discipline and keep away from the First Four. Last 12 months’s bracket affords an insightful precedent that may be utilized to Miami’s state of affairs. Memphis wouldn’t have been an at-large crew in the 2025 NCAA Tournament if the selection committee solely checked out predictive metrics. The Tigers averaged out at 53rd in BPI, Torvik and KenPom, that are the three predictive metrics utilized by the committee. But the Tigers landed as a No. 5 seed. How? Because they averaged out at seventeenth in results-based metrics.
Miami may be checked out in the similar method. The RedHawks are round ninetieth in predictive metrics. While that implies they are going to be a major betting underdog in the Big Dance, their results-based metrics stay firmly in at-large territory. With a No. 38 Wins Above Bubble rating (getting into Saturday’s motion) and a results-based metric common of 39.7 (getting into Saturday’s motion), this crew may very well be in the discipline with slightly room to spare.
Selection is usually tied to your outcomes and what you’ve got achieved. Miami — regardless of having no Quad 1 victories — picked up sufficient incremental beneficial properties in results-based metrics to be acknowledged as an at-large caliber crew. That’s what an undefeated common season will do. The Memphis comparability is not excellent since the 2025 Tigers had six Quad 1 wins and Miami has none. But we’re not speaking a couple of single-digit seed right here for Miami. It’s a weak bubble, and the RedHawks are in nice form to make the discipline and keep away from the First Four.
Chip Patterson
I do not root for groups to hit Key Performance Indicators, and I do not get pleasure from sports activities in search of optimization and year-over-year progress. The TI-83 mindset has contaminated our celebration of profitable and promoted pathways for losers to get extra inclusion in championship rivalry. Keeping Miami (Ohio) out of the event, and even sending the RedHawks to Dayton as one in every of the final 4 groups into the discipline of 68 can be handing down a seeding punishment to one in every of the winningest groups in America.
“Quality losses” are the invention of marks who lose at the high-rollers desk, and the NCAA Tournament inherently doesn’t have a format that requires the highest power-rated groups to supply the highest ranges of competitors. March is for winners, and profitable should not be punished in favor of groups which have did not emerge victorious at a coin-flip clip.
Isaac Trotter
If the committee used North Carolina’s Wins Above Bubble score to clarify why the Tar Heels made the Big Dance over West Virginia final 12 months, it wants to stay constant this time round. Miami University sits thirty eighth in WAB. That’s very a lot worthy of a bid. It is not sophisticated or a lot of an issue. I believe the RedHawks are nearer to a lock than the cut-line. The committee would have egg on its face if Miami is unnoticed and look awfully disingenuous.
Cameron Salerno
I’m going to really feel like the unhealthy man right here as a result of Miami has been the finest story in faculty basketball this season. Going undefeated in the common season is a big accomplishment that should be celebrated. Furthermore, the NCAA Tournament is constructed on Cinderella tales like Miami, in order that they need to be in the discipline. However, Miami goes to learn from a traditionally unhealthy bubble this season. If there are bid thieves, Miami may be one in every of the “Last Four In,” which might imply a visit to Dayton and the First Four.
If Miami received only one sport in the MAC Tournament, they’d’ve been a lock to keep away from the First Four altogether, for my part. But after struggling a Quad 3 loss to UMass, the door is sadly open for the committee to ship them to Dayton. Is it proper? No. Is it truthful? Probably not. But that is the unlucky actuality. Again, the bubble is not nice this 12 months, so there nonetheless is a robust case that Miami avoids the first two days of the event totally. But I would not be shocked if on Selection Sunday, Miami finally ends up being one in every of the “Last Four In.”
