Ian Happ has been a a lot-maligned participant over the course of his tenure with the Cubs. I’ve personally written about him a few occasions, together with once this offseason, and once last fall. Happ would not deserve a lot of the animosity thrown his approach; he is a actually good baseball participant. Even on Opening Day, a fast searching of reddit had me discovering posts complaining about him hitting within the 3-gap.
The Cubs misplaced two of three over the weekend to the Washington Nationals. Between the disappointing outcomes and the Pete Crow-Armstrong and Nico Hoerner extensions, Happ’s huge weekend sort of flew underneath the radar. The Cubs’ left fielder hit two dwelling runs, had three hits general, and was one of the standouts offensively. In truth, he’s probably owed a home run, as a flyout that he smashed in Thursday’s Opening Day contest would have flown an estimated 113 toes farther had the wind not intervened. That was the most important climate-associated distinction tracked within the Statcast Era.
Underlying his first weekend had been some encouraging indicators for the 31-12 months outdated, who will flip 32 later this summer season. The age issues right here. As we have gotten increasingly more information publicly obtainable to us by way of Statcast and Baseball Savant, one factor has grow to be clear: 32 is roughly the age once we start to see a league broad development of bat pace decline. This decline is then extra pronounced after. Bat pace is an indicator of energy and exit velocity, so dropping bat pace is not notably good.
Despite standing proper on that dreaded doorstep, Happ has seen a noticeable enhance in bat pace to date in 2026, averaging 74.6 mph on his swings, up from 71.4mph final 12 months. Not solely is it up, however his present numbers would mark a profession-greatest bat pace. Obviously, it’s totally early, however that is an encouraging signal.
Diving deeper, there look like some small modifications in how Happ has arrange on the plate, notably from the appropriate aspect. While he is a little deeper within the field each left-handed and proper-handed, the distinction is extra pronounced from his proper-handed stance. Another change together with his swing towards left-handed pitching? He’s a bit extra open. The first picture is of his 2025 information, whereas the second is from his 2026 to date.
Any tweaks towards lefties could be welcome for a hitter who hasn’t been notably nice towards them for the previous few years. From 2023 by way of 2025 he is bought a 102 wRC+ towards southpaws. Compare this to his 125 wRC+ towards righties, and you’ll start to see the distinction. A 102 is not horrible, however it additionally is not wherever close to nearly as good as Happ has been towards righties. Change is required, and it appears as if there could also be a change that the outfielder has labored on.
To see this transformation in follow, look beneath at that fly ball that he ought to have hit for a dwelling run, wind not withstanding. Cionel Perez, a left-handed reliever with the Nationals, will get a 96-mph fastball in on the palms of Happ within the higher third of the zone. Happ is ready to clear his entrance aspect and get his barrel to it. He cannot management the wind, however as a result of he is simply a little extra open, and a little off the plate, he is discovered the flexibility to get to this pitch and hit it with authority. Most days that lands on the road, not in a glove.
Why does this matter? Traditionally, Happ would not do a lot harm on that pitch. Up-and-in fastballs are something however his energy. Last season, he had primarily no success on this space of the strike zone towards lefties. Below is that this pitch from Thursday, superimposed onto a contour chart from 2025 of all Happ’s batted balls with an exit velocity of 90+ MPH towards lefties.
Plainly, that is imperfect; the sport feed Savant gives isn’t top-adjusted to the hitter, because the 2025 information is (you’ll be able to see how a lot smaller the strike zone is within the picture towards Perez). Because of this, I believe that this pitch is actually larger than it seems right here, however at the same time as displayed, it is exterior Happ’s “power zone” towards lefties from final 12 months. When we add in that probably adjustment, it is fairly obvious that that is one thing he did not do final 12 months.
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I can not say for sure that Happ was in a position to get to this pitch as a result of he is a little farther again, a little farther off the plate, and a little extra open, however all of these items would permit him to higher get to that pitch and clear his entrance aspect. Add within the enhance in bat pace, and the small tweaks would seem to provide Happ a bit of a higher platform to hit the ball with authority towards no matter-sided arm he is going through.
Happ has at all times been impressively constant 12 months-to-12 months. While he might fluctuate and go sizzling-and-chilly inside it, you at all times know what you are getting with him by the top; it is one of his greatest qualities. If Happ’s certainly swinging a bit tougher and his refined changes are going to assist him towards lefties, than maybe he will not be as predictable in 2026—not in a dangerous approach, however in a good one. There’s a lengthy season to go, however this will very properly be the perfect model of the change-hitter the Cubs have ever seen.
What do you assume of these refined modifications? Do you assume Happ can start to provide higher towards LHP?
