Weekly pending gross sales
Pending dwelling gross sales information offers a week-to-week perspective, although outcomes will be affected by holidays and short-term fluctuations. The final 5 weeks have been constructive in our weekly pending gross sales information. We shall see if that strikes ahead, particularly now that rates hit a yearly excessive and so they might proceed larger this week.
Weekly pending gross sales often take 30-60 days to hit the gross sales information. Typically, mortgage rates above 6.64% and breaking over 7% actually influence the info. Under 6.25% is the place the candy spot has been prior to now a number of years, excluding short-term variables out of the equation.
Weekly pending gross sales final week over the past two years:
- 2026: 71,230
- 2025: 68,726
Mortgage buy software information
Purchase software information is a forward-looking information line: the expansion right here leads dwelling gross sales roughly 30-90 days out, and last week we noticed 12% year-over-year progress with 1% week-to-week progress. Weekly progress cooled final week and this week we’re vulnerable to a unfavourable weekly print. This does occur usually when you have got back-to-back weeks of rising rates.
For this information line, what I actually worth is not less than 12-14 weeks of constructive weekly progress. If you may get this alongside year-over-year progress, we have now one thing legit, for positive. For 2026, each week has proven constructive year-over-year progress. The week-to-week information has been constructive; nevertheless, that’s a lot simpler to do with rates beneath 6.25%.
Here’s 2026 to date:
- 5 constructive week-over-week prints
- 4 unfavourable week-to-week prints
- 1 flat week-to-week print
- 7 weeks of double-digit year-over-year progress
- 10 weeks of constructive year-over-year progress
10-year yield and mortgage rates
In the 2026 HousingWire forecast, I anticipated the next ranges:
- Mortgage rates between 5.75% and 6.75%
- The 10-year yield fluctuating between 3.80% and 4.60%
When the Iran battle began, I talked about how I’d be shocked if it continued previous March 21 due to the financial implications of struggle, together with larger vitality and enter prices. Friday, March 20, the bond market took the battle extra significantly and, for the primary time since September of 2025, the 10-year yield closed above 4.31%. The bond market has now priced out all charge cuts and is now pricing in a rate hike in 2026.
This week is vital to me as a result of we now have a transparent pathway to the 10-year yield hitting 4.60% — the excessive finish of my forecast. If this battle continues and worsens, bond yields will rise and extra charge hikes can be priced in.
Mortgage spreads
Mortgage spreads stay a positive story for housing in 2026, lowering mortgage-rate volatility, and are near regular ranges. Mortgage spreads acquired barely worse when bond yields had been falling in February, as the spreads had been attempting to make mortgage rates much less risky with falling yields. Now they’ve gotten worse with this battle as properly.
For now, the spreads are still very constructive, however their enchancment is the one factor holding rates from being over 7% once more.
Historically, mortgage spreads have ranged from 1.60% to 1.80%. Last week’s spreads closed at 1.97%. Again, Friday’s single-day unfold is just not accounted for on this weekly information.
However, I needed to indicate this week’s rates relative to the worst ranges of the spreads over the previous three years, with the 10-year yield at its present stage.
- If we had the worst ranges of mortgage spreads in 2023, mortgage rates can be 7.67% at present, not 6.53%
- If we had the worst ranges of 2024, mortgage rates can be 7.29% at present.
- If we had the worst ranges of 2025, mortgage rates can be 7.10% at present.
Weekly housing stock information
Housing inventory ought to now be beginning its annual seasonal enhance. However, the expansion charge of stock has actually slowed from final 12 months’s peak ranges, to the point that we’d see some unfavourable year-over-year prints in our weekly stock. Still, we’re still removed from the unhealthy ranges of 2021, 2022 and 2023.
We have gone from 33% year-over-year progress in stock on the highest point in 2025, to six.35% final week. In the previous, stock progress picked up amid larger rates, softening demand and rising year-over-year new listings. New listings information is still unfavourable 12 months over 12 months, however for this week, it’s begin to the spring seasonal enhance.
- Weekly stock change: (March 13-March 20): Inventory rose from 697,251 to 705,633
- Same week final 12 months: (March 14-March 21): Inventory rose from 655,625 to 668,155
New listings information
New listings information has additionally been barely disappointing this 12 months. While I still consider we are able to get just a few weeks over 80,000, the year-over-year progress charge has been barely unfavourable for weeks now.
I’m still hoping for the brand new listings information to vary between 80,000 and 100,000 per week through the seasonal peak intervals, as it did from 2013-2019. For context, through the housing bubble crash, new listings ranged from 250,000 to 400,000 per week for a number of years.
Here is final week’s new listings information for the previous two years:
- 2026: 68,016
- 2025: 69,701
Price-cut proportion
Typically, about one-third of properties bear value reductions earlier than they promote, reflecting the dynamic nature of the housing market. As mortgage rates and stock rise collectively, the proportion of value cuts will increase.
In my 2026 value forecast, I had a unfavourable 0.62% name for the 12 months nationally.
However, mortgage rates had been decrease than I believed they might be at first of the 12 months and the FHFA’s introduced purchase of mortgage-backed securities pushed mortgage spreads decrease than I anticipated. I believed we’d see that enchancment in a while within the 12 months. So, earlier than the battle began, my forecast seemed improper for 2026. Now, if rates head larger and keep larger for longer, I do have a shot at my name being extra appropriate. Still, the worth reduce proportion is under final 12 months at the moment.
The price-cut proportion for final week:
The week forward: Iran, Iran, Iran and Iran
Nothing issues this coming week however Iran. Last week we broke a key stage on the 10-year and the whole calendar 12 months is now being formed by larger rates, larger inflation and no charge cuts. In truth, charge hikes at the moment are again within the dialogue for 2026. If this battle will get worse, we are able to get extra charge hikes priced in for 2026, and no Fed member will speak about charge cuts until we go right into a hardcore recession. So for now, the Iran battle is shaping what the remainder of 2026 will appear like for the economic system and the housing market.
