The San Francisco Giants have lastly run right into a group they’re hitting higher than right here by the season’s first couple of weeks. If you ignore the Yankees sequence, the Giants are literally round a league common offense (96 wRC+) of their final 13 video games. Meanwhile, the Reds are the worst within the National League (76 wRC+). According to FanGraphs’ measure of WAR, they’ve been precisely alternative stage (0.0) over their final 14 video games. Does this imply the Giants have an ideal shot on this 3-game sequence on the Great American Ball Park?
Sure. Anything’s potential.
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They’ve additionally been a medicore pitching group, with a 4.10 ERA and 5.09 xERA. That’s as a result of they’ve been strolling hitters like loopy, to the tune of 5.04 per 9 innings over their final 125 innings. That’s the worst within the NL and fourth-worst in MLB. And but, they’re 9-7 total, with 5 of these wins approaching the highway in Texas and Miami. They have a -16 run differential in comparison with the Giants -21. The Giants workers has walked hitters at too-high a charge as properly, with a 4.18 BB/9 over their final 114 innings. That’s twenty first in MLB and tenth within the NL.
On the complete season — so, if we return and embrace the Yankees sequence — the Reds have solely outscored the Giants by 3 runs (54 to 51). They’re hitting as a group simply .205/.298/.325 in comparison with the Giants’ .243/.288/.357. Their offensive leaders have been Elly De La Cruz (152 wRC+) and rookie Sal Stewart (178 wRC+). The solely different participant who comes near league common (100 wRC+) is platoon bat Nathaniel Lowe (92 wRC+ in 23 PA).It’s a tough lineup right here within the early going. The Giants counter that with Casey Schmitt (186 wRC+), Willy Adames (127), Matt Chapman (118), and Luis Arraez (106).
Rather than silo him within the gamers to look at part, I’ll speak in regards to the Reds’ dynamic Elly De La Cruz proper right here, as a result of he’s simply 24 years previous and is as soon as once more enjoying like an MVP-caliber participant. He has 5 stolen based mostly in his first 16 video games of the season, an 11.1% stroll charge and 27.8 strikeout charge. It’s uncertain he’ll maintain these charges by the season, however they’d each be profession bests (his profession averages: 9.5 BB% and 29.7 Ok%). He was projected to be a 4-to-5-WAR participant and has already been value 1.0 fWAR by the primary 16 video games of the season. That’s a 10-WAR tempo. Also most likely not sustainable, however value mentioning right here as a result of he’s white sizzling proper now.
The Great American Ball Park has been much less a home of horrors right here within the 2020s than it was within the 2010s when the Giants went 12-21. They’re 11-6 right here within the 2020s and, as you’ll recall, the Giants obtained off to such a scintillating begin final season due to the opening sequence in Cincinnati. A 12 months later and the group feels significantly much less stunning and brimming with potentialities, however who is aware of? Maybe one other sequence win right here will kick off a pleasant run of success. This sequence is a battle of previous (the Giants) versus younger (the Reds), with the Giants’ older lineup (28.9 on common) battling the Reds’ youthful pitching workers (28.4) whereas the Reds’ younger hitters (27.8) tackle the Giants’ extra veteran (30.2) workers.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants (6-10) at Cincinnati Reds (9-7)
Where: Great American Ball Park| Cincinnati, Ohio
When: Monday & Tuesday at 3:40pm PT, Wednesday at 9:40am PT
National broadcasts: None.
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Projected starters
Tuesday: Robbie Ray (LHP 2-1, 2.08 ERA) vs. Brady Singer (RHP 0-1, 7.71 ERA)
Wednesday: Tyler Mahle (RHP 0-2, 4.30 ERA) vs. Rhett Lowder (RHP 1-1, 3.31 ERA)
Thursday: Landen Roupp (RHP 2-1, 3.24 ERA) vs. Chase Burns (RHP 1-1, 3.31 ERA)
Players to look at
Reds
Sal Stewart: The 22-year previous first baseman ended final season because the #3 prospect within the Reds’ system, in line with MLB Pipeline. Indeed, the highest three prospects from their system on the finish of 2025 will likely be featured on this sequence, with Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder each scheduled to pitch.
He was a highschool bat drafted in 2022 and, per Pipeline’s writeup:
Stewart’s superior strategy has been obvious from day one in all his professional profession. He carried a miniscule 15.7 p.c profession strikeout charge into the 2025 season and he’s walked as usually as he’s struck out (138 BB vs. 139 Ks). He makes a whole lot of laborious contact and may ship line drives to all fields persistently in opposition to all types of pitching. Just 21 for all of this season [2025], he’s nonetheless studying to faucet into his appreciable uncooked energy, with confidence it is going to come with out him shedding any of his hitability.
He hit 5 house runs in an 18-game cup of espresso final season (58) and slashed .255/.293/.545. He’s hitting .309/.435/.600 within the first 16 video games and 69 plate appearances of this season. That consists of 4 house runs, 4 doubles, and 13 walks in opposition to 10 strikeouts. No surprise Eno Sarris giddily selected his future over Bryce Eldridge’s when asked about it during the offseason.
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Rhett Lowder: A sinker-slider-changeup man whose fastball velocity (he does have a four-seamer, too) that sits within the 92-94 vary. I’m pondering the right-handed Cade Povich, if you would like a latest comparability to a Giants’ opponent. I’m to see how his 6.1 Ok/9 (although 3.74 FIP) performs in opposition to this Giants lineup. He missed all of 2025 with some elbow points, however in 2024, he had a 1.17 ERA (3.10 FIP) in 6 begins (30.2 IP).
Eugenio Suarez: The veteran has but to get it going within the early season with a .642 OPS by his first 16 video games. He was a Red from 2015-2021 and since 2021 he’s his 163 house runs for 3 groups in 774 video games. He has a profession line of .244/.331/.516 with 15 house runs in 59 video games and 245 PA in opposition to the Giants.
Giants
Jung Hoo Lee: Lee, like a whole lot of the Giants, obtained off to a quick begin in Cincinnati final season, with a 3-for-10, a double, a stolen base, and a pair of walks in that season-opening sequence. He’s had a dismal begin to 2026 (.185/.246/.315) and will actually use a great sequence. Three right-handed starters in a park that favors hitters is a pleasant pairing of elements for a hitter.
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Tyler Mahle: He was drafted by the Reds within the seventh spherical of the 2013 draft and spent his first 5 1/2 seasons with them, posting a 4.34 ERA in 117 begins. This would be the first time he’s ever confronted his former group?! That appears inconceivable, so perhaps I’m studying his Baseball Reference web page incorrect. Anyway, he has a profession 5.02 ERA in 285.1 IP on the Great American Ball Park.
Patrick Bailey: Speaking of efficiency at GABP, the Giants catcher is simply 1-for-27 in his profession. That’s simply 9 video games, but it surely’s one other strike in opposition to a backstop who definitely racks up strikes every time he steps to the plate. There’s most likely not a beginning catcher controversy simply but, however we nearly definitely determine to see Daniel Susac extra usually ought to Bailey’s bat preserve its sub zero temperature.
Tony Vitello watch
He’ll be going up in opposition to the legend Terry Francona, which could be fascinating if the Giants are in a position to preserve video games shut late. It’s not that the Great American Ball Park is Coors Field, however bullpen choices will likely be necessary. Also, I ponder how a lot time Vitello has spent in Ohio. The Volunteers performed Cincinnati, so perhaps he’ll have a few previous faculty tales to share through the media scrum.
Prediction time
The Giants may win a sport on this sequence.
