Is the Sweet 16 what we anticipated? In some ways, sure. All 4 No. 1 seeds and three No. 2 seeds stay. UConn and the opposite high groups have principally thrashed opponents.
But the surprises? Count No. 10 seed Virginia as the final word NCAA Tournament occasion crashers. No. 6 seed Notre Dame is right here for the fifth straight season, however the Irish needed to pull off an upset to make it. And although Minnesota was a No. 4 internet hosting crew, the Gophers aren’t a well-known visitor at this stage, making it again to the regional for the primary time since 2005.
It’s laborious to guess in opposition to the No. 1 seeds this season, however March Madness can carry the sudden.
Before the match begins up once more on Friday, our specialists (Chantel Jennings, Sabreena Merchant, Grace Raynor and Cameron Teague Robinson) broke down each Sweet 16 recreation and predicted the winners.
(All occasions Eastern)
Fort Worth 1 Region
No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Vanderbilt, 2:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN
The high-profile matchups simply proceed for the Irish. Just a few days after the sport between All-American guards Hannah Hidalgo and Ohio State’s Jaloni Cambridge, the Irish now meet Vanderbilt star Mikayla Blakes. Though they received’t be guarding each other, getting Blakes, the nation’s main scorer, and Hidalgo, the third-leading scorer, on the identical ground will carry huge firepower to Fort Worth. However, this recreation might come all the way down to the gamers across the celebrity scorers. Hidalgo had 26 factors in opposition to Ohio State, however 4 of her teammates completed in double figures.
Vanderbilt’s seventh-ranked scoring offense is extra than simply Blakes; she has 4 teammates averaging double figures this season as properly.
Whichever crew could cause havoc on protection and include the opposite crew’s supporting solid may very well be the distinction.
Predictions:
Jennings: Vanderbilt
Merchant: Vanderbilt
Raynor: Vanderbilt
Teague Robinson: Notre Dame
No. 1 UConn vs. No. 4 North Carolina, 5 p.m. Friday, ESPN
The Huskies are coming off a dominant second-round win over Syracuse wherein they mounted a 53-point halftime lead (the second-largest halftime lead in NCAA Tournament historical past) earlier than reeling within the defensive strain and scoring evenly with the Orange within the second half. The Tar Heels performed Syracuse as soon as this season, beating the Orange by six in time beyond regulation in late January.
As it has all through its undefeated season, UConn used a bevy of weapons in its rout of Syracuse, however UNC’s protection is not any joke. The Tar Heels are the perfect scoring protection the Huskies have confronted this season, based mostly on factors per possession, and they’ve held opponents to 37 p.c from the ground and 28 p.c from past the arc. North Carolina hasn’t been examined by an offense as sturdy as UConn’s, nor has it seen a participant as gifted as Sarah Strong or a shooter as elite as Azzi Fudd. Sophomores Lanie Grant and Elina Aarnisalo confirmed up huge within the Tar Heels’ win over Maryland, however they should carry much more in the event that they — and the remainder of UNC — need to fare properly in opposition to the highest crew on this match.
Predictions:
Jennings: UConn
Merchant: UConn
Raynor: UConn
Teague Robinson: UConn
Sacramento 2 Region
No. 1 UCLA vs. No. 4 Minnesota, 7:30 p.m. Friday, ESPN
Only three groups stay from what most metrics thought to be the deepest convention within the nation this season, however at least one is assured to get by way of to the Elite Eight when Big Ten foes UCLA and Minnesota face. The Bruins are rolling, winners of 27 in a row, together with an 18-point victory at The Barn in January, the groups’ lone regular-season assembly. The Golden Gophers are additionally using their very own wave of momentum, coming off Amaya Battle’s buzzer-beating game-winner within the second spherical to safe their first Sweet 16 berth since 2005.
UCLA has the nation’s greatest offensive ranking, and all the pieces runs by way of Lauren Betts. If Sophie Hart can deal with Betts in single protection, that can give the remainder of Minnesota’s perimeter gamers — who’ve some dimension — an opportunity in opposition to the Bruins’ guards. But fairly than try and cease UCLA, the perfect plan of action is perhaps to attempt to rating with them. The Gophers have an impressive offense, if not as elite because the Bruins, and create challenges for defenses within the half court docket. UCLA already had some issue containing Oklahoma State’s motion, giving Minnesota a template to work with.
The Golden Gophers are new to this stage and fed off the vitality of the house crowd of their first two wins. It shall be attention-grabbing how they reply in opposition to a veteran, battle-tested opponent that has been to the Sweet 16 each of the final three seasons.
Predictions:
Jennings: UCLA
Raynor: UCLA
Merchant: UCLA
Teague Robinson: UCLA
LSU and Duke are acquainted opponents, bringing excessive depth to this Sweet 16 assembly.
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 2 LSU, 10 p.m. Friday, ESPN
A second consecutive rematch is on the docket, because the Blue Devils and Tigers reprise December’s ACC-SEC Challenge assembly, which LSU received handily regardless of trailing 14-1 to start out. However, Duke switched its beginning lineup the subsequent day trip, changing Jadyn Donovan with Riley Nelson, and reeled off 17 wins in a row. As Baylor realized in its 23-point second-round loss, these aren’t your early-season Blue Devils.
Still, Duke is the decrease seed for a cause. The Tigers carry extra depth into this Sweet 16 matchup, in addition to a quicker tempo, a stronger offense and higher rebounding on each ends. They even have the expertise of getting been to the Elite Eight each of the previous two seasons, and Flau’jae Johnson and MiLaysia Fulwiley each received titles as freshmen. Plus, Kim Mulkey is considered one of three coaches remaining within the match, together with Geno Auriemma and Dawn Staley, who’ve received a championship.
The Blue Devils’ most important benefit comes within the clutch. Duke has been wonderful in shut video games, with a internet ranking of plus-12.4 in crunch time, per CBB Analytics. LSU, in the meantime, has been a little bit of a practice wreck in clutch conditions, getting outscored by 21.3 factors per 100 possessions. If the Blue Devils can maintain the sport shut, they’ve been the higher crew down the stretch.
Predictions:
Merchant: LSU
Raynor: LSU
Jennings: LSU
Teague Robinson: Duke
Sacramento 4 Region
No. 1 South Carolina vs. No. 4 Oklahoma, 5 p.m. Saturday, ESPN
South Carolina has misplaced three video games all season. It misplaced twice to Texas and as soon as to Oklahoma, so it’s getting its shot to avenge January’s 94-82 time beyond regulation loss to the Sooners. In that recreation, South Carolina struggled mightily, taking pictures simply 37 p.c and 23.8 p.c from deep.
South Carolina will hope for a greater taking pictures day, particularly from second-leading scorer Ta’Niya Latson, who had simply six factors within the first recreation. The lights weren’t too vibrant for standout freshman Aaliyah Chavez then, as she scored 26 factors to go along with her eight assists. South Carolina should have a solution for Chavez in addition to standout ahead Raegen Beers.
The star energy shall be heavy on this recreation with the Oklahoma duo, together with South Carolina’s Tessa Johnson, Raven Johnson, Joyce Edwards and many extra.
Can South Carolina obtain revenge in opposition to a non-Texas opponent?
Predictions:
Jennings: South Carolina
Merchant: South Carolina
Raynor: South Carolina
Teague Robinson: South Carolina
No. 3 TCU vs. No. 10 Virginia, 7:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN
What a enjoyable matchup coming down the pipeline in Sacramento. The 10th-seeded Cavaliers have gone from needing a play-in recreation to get into Round 1 to punching their ticket to the Sweet 16 in lower than every week’s time. After beating No. 2 seed Iowa at Iowa in double time beyond regulation (after knocking off Georgia in time beyond regulation), they’ve proven a degree of resilience that may proceed to serve them properly.
The Cavaliers’ greatest power is junior guard Kymora Johnson, the Charlottesville native who’s averaging 19.5 factors per recreation. But TCU has star guard Olivia Miles, who robotically places fairly the pressure on UVA’s protection. The Horned Frogs have the higher protection; Virginia has the higher rebounders. This one may come all the way down to who takes over extra between Johnson and Miles.
Predictions:
Jennings: TCU
Merchant: Virginia
Raynor: TCU
Teague Robinson: TCU
Fort Worth 3 Region
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 5 Kentucky, 3 p.m. Saturday, ABC
These two groups met in early February with the Longhorns’ protection doing Longhorns’ protection issues — forcing 23 turnovers and tallying 11 steals as level guard Tonie Morgan and ahead Teonni Key turned the ball over six occasions apiece. Since then, Texas’ protection has solely locked in additional (that UK assembly was one recreation earlier than Texas’ loss to Vanderbilt, which finally galvanized the Longhorns). That has include devastating penalties for all Texas opponents — since that loss, Texas’ protection has held opponents to 57 factors per recreation.
Even in that loss, Kentucky confirmed that regardless of ball management points, it may nonetheless dig deep and put up a battle in opposition to the Longhorns. After trailing by 14 halfway by way of the third quarter, Kentucky reduce Texas’ result in one level with simply greater than six minutes to go within the recreation. Plus, the Wildcats confronted West Virginia — nicknamed “Stress Virginia” for its full court docket defensive strain — within the second spherical, and beat the Mountaineers on their residence court docket and turned over the ball 17 occasions. If there have been any form of a doable tuneup for dealing with defensive strain like Texas once more, West Virginia may very well be it.
Predictions:
Jennings: Texas
Merchant: Texas
Raynor: Texas
Teague Robinson: Texas
Michigan’s guards must face up to Louisville’s confirmed protection to advance. (Jaime Crawford / Getty Images)
No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 3 Louisville, 12:30 p.m. Saturday, ABC
Michigan has the higher offense, however Louisville has the higher protection. The Wolverines have arguably the perfect participant on the ground in Olivia Olson however are making simply their third Sweet 16 look in class historical past, whereas Louisville’s Jeff Walz is making his thirteenth with the Cardinals. It shall be as much as Louisville to restrict an explosive Michigan offense that scored 83 factors in opposition to Holy Cross within the first spherical and 92 factors in opposition to NC State within the second spherical. It would be the job of the Wolverines to restrict Louisville, which enters the Sweet 16 assured after holding off Alabama on Monday.
Predictions:
Jennings: Michigan
Merchant: Louisville
Raynor: Louisville
Teague Robinson: Louisville
