ExxonMobil Is Up 44% and Retail Investors Are Still Missing the Point

• ExxonMobil (XOM) trades at $149.78, up 25.31% YTD; Citigroup raised goal from $118 to $150 regardless of web revenue falling 14.36% to $28.84B. Chevron (CVX) accomplished Hess acquisition, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) companions on supercomputer deployment.

• ExxonMobil and Chevron profit from crude surge pushed by Middle East tensions, with Polymarket pricing 80% odds Iran closes Strait of Hormuz by March 31.

• The analyst who referred to as NVIDIA in 2010 simply named his prime 10 AI shares. Get them here FREE.

Amidst a rising worldwide disaster closely involving the worth of oil, shares of ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) are buying and selling at $149.78 as of Wednesday, up 24% year-to-date and 39% over the previous 12 months. Retail sentiment on Reddit has shifted from a month-to-month common rating of 37.875 (bearish) to a weekly rating of 53.5 (impartial) over the previous week, monitoring the surge in crude oil costs pushed by Middle East tensions. WTI crude has climbed from $60.46 on January 26 to $71.13 as of March 2.

ExxonMobil (XOM) reported a share worth of $149.78 with +25.31% YTD development and a impartial social sentiment rating of 53.5 as of March 4, 2026. This sentiment is primarily pushed by rising crude oil costs linked to Middle East tensions.

Polymarket merchants are pricing an 80% likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz by March 31, with the full-year market at 84% odds by December 2026. Citigroup raised its XOM worth goal from $118 to $150 on March 2, and the inventory now trades above the present analyst consensus goal of $144.25.

READ: The analyst who referred to as NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks

The top-driving put up this week, “Why are oil prices up but oil stocks down right now?” on r/shares, has drawn 109 upvotes and 67 feedback and displays rising skepticism that the oil spike interprets into sturdy fairness good points.

Why are oil costs up however oil shares down proper now?
by u/[OP] in shares

“Oil companies hedge their production and lock in prices months in advance, so a sudden spike doesn’t immediately flow through to earnings. The market is pricing in mean reversion before the next quarterly report even drops.” — u/[OP], r/shares

Earlier in February, “The real bubble is in Big Oil, NOT in Big Tech” on r/stockmarket peaked at 150 upvotes and 69 feedback with sentiment scores in the 22-31 vary throughout 9 consecutive information factors. What retail dialogue has missed fully: ExxonMobil’s AI infrastructure investments, its supercomputer deployment with NVIDIA and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, or its Mobil Lithium initiative focusing on EV battery provide chain entry by 2027.

The actual bubble is in Big Oil, NOT in Big Tech
by u/[OP] in stockmarket

“Big Oil is trading on geopolitical fear premiums and legacy dividend chasers. The fundamentals don’t support these valuations when you strip out the noise — capex is ballooning and free cash flow is getting squeezed.” — u/[OP], r/stockmarket

Why retail sentiment stays cautious regardless of the worth rally:

• Full-year 2025 web revenue fell 14.36% year-over-year to $28.84 billion, and This fall income of $82.31 billion missed the $81.43 billion consensus estimate

• The Chemical Products phase posted a $281 million loss in This fall, weighed down by international capability additions

• XOM’s trailing P/E of 23x sits above historic norms for an built-in main

ExxonMobil’s This fall earnings advised a unique story. The firm posted document manufacturing of 4.7 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, the highest annual output in over 40 years, whereas capturing $15.1 billion in cumulative structural value financial savings since 2019. The Permian Basin hit a This fall document of 1.8 million boed, and Guyana’s Yellowtail venture began 4 months forward of schedule. CEO Darren Woods has described the enterprise-wide AI and information platform transformation: “You will enable us to learn and act faster and better leverage our scale, accelerate the adoption of artificial intelligence, and integrate new solutions. It’s already delivering results, with much more to come.”

Chevron (NYSE:CVX) faces the identical macro atmosphere, having accomplished its Hess acquisition and deepened Guyana publicity. Both majors profit from the identical geopolitical tailwinds, however ExxonMobil’s annualized shareholder return of 29% over 5 years and 43 consecutive years of dividend development give it a structural revenue argument pure-play E&P friends can’t match. The subsequent concrete catalysts: Golden Pass LNG first cargoes anticipated very early March 2026, and a knowledge middle carbon seize announcement anticipated by year-end 2026.

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