Last season was a down yr for the AFC’s famous person quarterbacks I wish to name the “big four.” None of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson or Joe Burrow made the AFC title sport. Mahomes, Jackson and Burrow all missed the playoffs and mixed to overlook 16 regular-season video games.
Now, do not get me mistaken, confidence remains to be understandably excessive on this group. Our specialists ranked them as four of the best five quarterbacks in the league coming into this season.
But, perhaps 2025 was greater than a fluke. Maybe, simply perhaps, they’re in the midst of, or coming into the sports activities model of a midlife disaster.
Think about it. They are getting up there in age. All 4 quarterbacks are both approaching age 30 or have already turned 30 years previous. Could they be questioning their careers? Allen and Jackson nonetheless have not made the Super Bowl and that is the age when cell quarterbacks begin to decline. Burrow had some midlife crisis-type comments final yr. Mahomes is coming off a severe knee harm and the Chiefs fell aside final yr. What’s subsequent? Mood swings and impulsive selections? Maybe a little bit jealousy? The subsequent era of star quarterbacks might be ready in the wings (Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Drake Maye, Fernando Mendoza??)
In all seriousness, every future Hall of Fame quarterback is coming into the second half of their profession with loads of promise but additionally some issues about their Super Bowl home windows. That’s why I’m a case for and towards a midlife disaster for each with a verdict included.
Patrick Mahomes
Case for midlife disaster
- Coming off torn ACL/LCL
- Chiefs 6-11 final season and nineteenth in scoring offense in previous three seasons
- Travis Kelce decline, Rashee Rice availability and Xavier Worthy struggles
- AFC QB competitors: Allen, Jackson, Burrow, Maye, Herbert
- Precedent: Tom Brady 10-year drought between third and fourth titles
Mahomes is the most fascinating case. He’s solely 30 years previous and is already considered one of three gamers all time with three Super Bowl MVPs (Brady and Joe Montana). As he chases Brady for GOAT standing, it is really Brady who gives the blueprint for what Mahomes’ midlife disaster might seem like. Like Mahomes, Brady tore his ACL in his ninth season. He additionally went a decade between his third and fourth rings as he competed with the likes of Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco and Philip Rivers in the AFC. Mahomes additionally has loads of expertise to compete with in the AFC who’re champing at the bit after he is been ring blocking for years.
You can undoubtedly make a case the Chiefs’ dynasty is over (a minimum of model 1.0) as gamers decline and bills come due. Kansas City wanted to commerce Tyreek Hill a number of years in the past. They moved Joe Thuney final yr. This offseason we noticed most of their secondary get dismantled headlined by Trent McDuffie’s commerce to the Rams. Kelce misplaced a step (or two) and Chris Jones is starting to say no. You can see the toll all of that has taken as the Chiefs sputtered final yr.
They have additionally been struggling on offense for 3 years now. We are a 50+-game pattern the place the Chiefs are under common in scoring. Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Brady by no means had a 30+-game stretch of their careers the place their staff was under league common in scoring. There would not seem like an answer in sight as Worthy hasn’t lived as much as the 4.21 40 hype and Rice cannot keep on the subject.
I used to be shocked when I discovered this stat lately. The Chiefs are the solely staff in the NFL with out a 1,000-yard rusher or receiver in a season in the previous three years. The lack of playmaking round Mahomes has caught as much as them. So has how defenses are taking part in them. Mahomes has simply seven cross touchdowns on deep throws (20+ air yards) since Hill was traded in the 2022 offseason. That’s tied for twenty seventh in the league. He had 41 in 4 seasons previous to that, simply the most in soccer.
We’re all ready for 50-TD Mahomes to stroll via that door once more. But with all of the above in thoughts, it is in all probability going to take a while.
Plus, I buried the lede. Mahomes is coming off final yr’s knee harm. Although he is wholesome for the begin of the yr, we nonetheless do not know the way this might impression a quarterback who depends on his legs lots. He leads the NFL in passing first downs (114) and speeding first downs (60) outdoors the pocket in the previous three seasons. As you may see in the chart under, Allen is the just one who comes near succeeding together with his legs in each aspects of the sport like Mahomes.
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This might be sufficient to be a contributing midlife disaster issue if this harm slows him down a little bit bit or it takes him time to evolve different elements of his sport to make up for dropping some explosiveness.
Case towards midlife disaster
- He’s Mahomes (two-time NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl MVP)
- Andy Reid remains to be there and Eric Bieniemy is again
- Rice is a WR1 when obtainable
- Kenneth Walker III signing
- Precedent: Montana’s longest title drought in Nineteen Eighties was three seasons
Let’s be actual, although. This is Patrick Mahomes! He’s considered one of one. He makes performs that no different QB could make. He performs in the clutch like no different. He made seven straight AFC title video games! Shouldn’t we give him the advantage of the doubt that he’s an alien and will return from harm higher than ever?
He additionally nonetheless has Reid, considered one of the biggest coaches ever. And perhaps the return of Bieniemy busts the Chiefs’ offensive stoop. The Chiefs averaged over 30 factors per sport in 5 seasons with him at OC from 2018-22. Perhaps Kansas City was lacking an edge, or misplaced deal with fundamentals, and Bieniemy can convey the finest out.
There’s additionally an opportunity Rice turns into dependable, proper? He has 120 catches, 1,377 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in his previous 17 video games when wholesome. That’s top-five WR in the NFL manufacturing. I’ve given up on Worthy’s breakout for now, however the Walker signing might undoubtedly spark the run sport. The Chiefs RBs had been traditionally dangerous final yr. They had one 25-yard run all season. Walker had two on one drive in the Super Bowl.
Verdict: Settlement (five-year Super Bowl drought)
I’ve weighed the proof and whereas I do not suppose we’re a 10-year Brady-esque Super Bowl drought for Mahomes, I believe it’s going to be a number of years. Montana went three seasons with out a ring when he gained 4 in the Nineteen Eighties. The protection has agreed to a settlement supply. My sentence for Mahomes is 5 years with out a title.
He will nonetheless get a minimum of 5 rings at the finish of the day, however it will take a number of years to get one other as the Chiefs’ roster reboots, Mahomes adjusts to his knee and he contends with the different nice QBs and groups in the convention.
Josh Allen
Case for midlife disaster
- He missed his finest probability final postseason (Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow not in subject)
- The Bills didn’t do sufficient to deal with wants (WR, edge rusher, run protection)
- Buffalo is cursed and he cannot get previous Mahomes in the playoffs
- Precedent: Cam Newton (bruising fashion will catch as much as him at age 30)
Always a bridesmaid, by no means a bride. Allen has the most playoff wins with out a Super Bowl look by a QB all time (eight). If it was ever going to occur for him, it could have occurred final yr when the path to a Super Bowl did not undergo Mahomes and the Chiefs (or Jackson or Burrow for that matter). That’s what a Bills pessimist would say. Buffalo had its probability and blew prefer it all the time does, in heartbreaking trend.
The Bills’ offseason strikes did not encourage a ton of confidence, both. They traded for WR DJ Moore, who seemed like Chicago’s third-best receiver final yr behind Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. They introduced in Bradley Chubb, who will in all probability be one other veteran who is not the nearer off the edge that Buffalo desperately wants and could not discover with Von Miller or Joey Bosa.
Plus, at what level does Allen’s bruising fashion of play catch as much as him? How lengthy can he sustain the one-man-band act? He has 100+ rushes in seven straight seasons, tied with Jackson for the longest streak by a quarterback all time. His physique sort and punishing operating fashion jogs my memory of Newton, a former MVP with online game numbers who began simply 22 video games in his 30s. I believe Allen is a extra polished passer than Newton, and up to now he is confirmed to be extra sturdy (lively streak of 137 straight begins together with playoffs). But, the NFL is a sport of very skinny margins. If he loses a few of his edge as a rusher will the Bills’ Super Bowl window begin closing?
Case towards midlife disaster
- He’s Josh Allen
- Joe Brady is his new head coach
- Moore can have a Stefon Diggs-like impression on offense
- Precedent: Peyton Manning gained first title in ninth season
Much like Mahomes, Allen’s protection begins with “this is Josh Allen we are talking about!” He already has the most whole touchdowns (301) via 9 seasons in NFL historical past and he is ENTERING his ninth season. He’s averaged 40+ touchdowns over the previous six years, one thing no participant has finished in a six-year span in league historical past. He could also be 30 however he is simply totally different and Father Time would not apply to him, a minimum of not but.
He additionally jogs my memory of one other famous person quarterback who took some time to win his first ring after placing up online game numbers with nothing to indicate for it (and dwelling in one other GOAT’s shadow). Peyton Manning gained his first title in his ninth season after watching Brady win his first three rings. Allen has had an analogous expertise with Mahomes so that is the blueprint for Allen to recover from the prime. Manning additionally skilled a heartbreaking playoff loss in his eighth season when Brady wasn’t even in the playoff subject (sound acquainted?). The Colts misplaced to the Steelers in the 2005 divisional spherical on a well-known play the place Ben Roethlisberger prevented what ought to have been a Colts defensive landing. Mike Vanderjagt shanked a possible game-tying subject aim. If Manning can lastly win one, so can Allen.
The Bills additionally must be energized by a brand new head coach in Brady and a brand new stadium. Allen has performed the finest ball of his profession in the previous few years with Brady as his OC, particularly getting over the turnover bug. Maybe the Bills simply want a brand new voice. The finest years of Allen’s profession additionally got here with Diggs. Moore might be the closest factor Allen has needed to Diggs since he left.
Verdict: Settlement (one-year probation)
History is not going to repeat itself twice with Allen successful his first title in his ninth season like Peyton Manning. He’s additionally not Newton. But, I did not like the Bills’ offseason strikes and I believe they’re going to want to return to the drafting board and discover a true WR1 and sack artist in 2027 earlier than they break via. The prosecution goes simple on the settlement supply and the decide guidelines for one yr of probation.
Lamar Jackson
Case for midlife disaster
- Rushing decline has already began
- Playoff woes (3-5 report and no Super Bowl journey)
- Injuries (missed a minimum of 4 video games in three of final 5 years)
- Precedent: Michael Vick, Russell Wilson, Newton, Randall Cunningham declines between ages 29-33
Jackson depends on velocity and explosiveness greater than the remainder of the group right here so his case is especially troubling. He already missed 4 video games with a hamstring harm final yr and it fully zapped his manufacturing when he returned (259 whole YPG, 11 TD, 2 TO earlier than harm and 207 whole YPG, 12 TD, 8 TO after harm). He additionally missed time in 2021 with an ankle harm and 2022 with a knee sprain.
Father Time is catching as much as him rapidly and the leg accidents might proceed to mount. When they do, how will the lack of his elite operating skill impression his passing sport? His passing stats are Hall of Fame worthy by themselves, however a few of his effectiveness must be tied to his operating. That was already on the decline earlier than final yr’s harm. He averaged 80.1 speeding yards per sport in his first two seasons from 2018-19, 65.0 from 2020-22, 52.6 from 2023-24 and 26.9 final yr.
That traces up with the regular decline the different finest operating QBs ever confronted. Newton hit a wall at age 29. Cunningham tailed off at age 30. Vick fell off at 32 and Wilson at 33. There’s no precise blueprint for when Jackson’s sport will fall off a cliff, however you may determine it is already beginning and might progress quickly at any level in the subsequent few seasons.
Finally, even when Jackson does defy Father Time, his playoff resume suggests he will not have the ability to capitalize on a Super Bowl window that stays open. Remember, 2024 was his finest probability when Derrick Henry and him had been each taking part in at MVP ranges and he turned it over twice in the first half in a playoff loss in Buffalo (marred by Mark Andrews‘ dropped two-point conversion).
Case towards midlife disaster
- New head coach (Jesse Minter) and OC (Declan Doyle)
- Henry remains to be elite
- Defense added Trey Hendrickson
- Precedent: Vick had an elite season at age 30
Forget how all elite speeding QBs age. The solely blueprint for Jackson is Vick, and even that is not excellent. Vick was nonetheless efficient at age 30 in 2010 when he had 3,000+ cross yards, 600+ rush yards and 30 whole TD in simply 11 begins for the Eagles. Plus, that was after he had simply spent two years in jail. Despite final yr’s hamstring harm, Jackson might nonetheless have a number of years of juice left in his legs, and remember about his arm. At one level final yr he was the all-time chief in passer score and speeding yards amongst QBs. His passing sport is superior to Vick which ought to lengthen his prime.
The Ravens even have a recent voice who might jump-start a title run. Jesse Minter is the new head coach and Doyle is the new offensive coordinator. Declan Doyle coached underneath Ben Johnson final yr, so maybe he can breathe some new life into Jackson and the Ravens’ offense. They will probably be going underneath middle extra in 2026 which might result in a extra explosive floor and play-action sport in Baltimore. Henry definitely proved he is nonetheless elite with 1,500+ rush yards on over 5 yards per carry final yr.
Finally, the Ravens had zero cross rush final yr. Hendrickson can be exhibiting indicators of decline at age 31 coming off an injury-plagued yr, however a rebound season would not be a shock for him, both.
Verdict: Guilty (midlife disaster with one-year delayed sentence)
The proof actually piles up towards Jackson. It’s onerous to disregard the historical past of accidents, dangerous playoff performances and the development of elite speeding QBs declining. I believe Baltimore’s Super Bowl window could be very near closing, however I used to be swayed barely by Vick’s 2010 season. So it is a responsible verdict with the sentence of a full on midlife disaster delayed by one yr. I believe Jackson might have one other MVP-caliber season in him this yr, paired with a productive Henry and improved protection. So as an example it is Super Bowl or bust for Jackson in 2026.
Joe Burrow
Case for midlife disaster
- Last yr’s cryptic feedback
- Bengals losing three years of his prime already
- Burrow’s harm historical past
- Precedent: Andrew Luck early retirement, Dan Marino by no means returning to Super Bowl
You do not must look too onerous to seek out proof for a Burrow midlife disaster. He’s already proper in the center of it. There’s the accidents (performed 10 or fewer video games in three of his six seasons), the wasted prime because of a horrible protection (missed playoffs in the final three years) and feedback of frustration.
There’s additionally precedent right here. Andrew Luck’s first six seasons look an terrible lot like Burrow’s. Luck retired after a seventh season when the bodily and psychological toll turned simply an excessive amount of. The bodily toll is definitely there for Burrow as he continues to take a beating behind considered one of the worst offensive traces in the league. The frustration from dropping is understandably there too. He’s the solely quarterback in NFL historical past with a 100+ passer score and zero playoff begins in a three-year span (min. 30 begins).
Another precedent is Dan Marino. Both Burrow and Marino made a Super Bowl in Year 2, misplaced in the AFC title sport in Year 3 and did not make the playoffs in years 4, 5 or 6. Marino by no means made it again to the Super Bowl and a dreadful Miami protection was one purpose why. Burrow might endure the identical destiny. The Bengals have not drafted a defensive participant who ultimately made a Pro Bowl for them since 2010 (Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap). I haven’t got a lot religion in Bengals proprietor Mike Brown or the smallest scouting division in the NFL (led by Duke Tobin) turning this round. They could have spent some cash and draft capital to overtake the protection however their observe report for drafting and growing on that aspect of the ball is dangerous.
Case towards midlife disaster
There’s a number of precedent for star QBs with playoff droughts throughout their primes like Burrow as I laid out a few months ago. There’s additionally some good rebound tales in there. The closest comparability might be Matt Ryan. He missed three straight postseasons after making it to the 2012 NFC title sport. But the presence of Julio Jones and some reinforcements on protection (plus Dan Quinn and Kyle Shanahan on his teaching workers) helped Ryan win an NFL MVP and practically a Super Bowl in 2016.
Burrow clearly has the expertise (prime 5 all time in completion charge, cross yards per sport and TD-INT ratio) and firepower (Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown) to make one other run. The Bengals additionally went all in by buying Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook and Kyle Dugger to repair what was an all-time dangerous protection for many of final yr.
Verdict: Exile
As a lot as I wish to imagine the Bengals have mounted their issues alongside the offensive line and on protection, their options are like placing Band-Aids on bullet holes. Burrow and the Bengals might have a rebound season like Ryan and the 2016 Falcons. Realistically, although, this can be a poorly run franchise and the modifications they made won’t result in sustainable success. My sentence to Burrow is exile, which may be becoming given final yr’s cryptic feedback. Exile labored out fairly effectively for Matthew Stafford from Detroit. He went from a QB with a number of arm expertise and zero playoff wins to at least one who will in all probability be in the Hall of Fame and has since gained an MVP and Super Bowl. If solely Burrow might get so fortunate.