Jim McCormick
Multiple Authors
ESPN’s fantasy basketball day by day cheat sheet is your pregame vacation spot earlier than you set your lineups for that night time’s games. Here you will learn our greatest recommendation for the night time, together with a number of gamers you possibly can stream in addition to game-by-game harm reviews.
What you’ll want to know for Saturday
A compelling four-game playoff slate options a number of games that would decide collection outcomes. Other than the Oklahoma City Thunder — who’re positioned as sizable favorites over the Phoenix Suns — the opposite three games are primarily toss-ups based mostly on betting metrics.
The marquee matchup of the day pits the Denver Nuggets towards the Minnesota Timberwolves in a possible epic that airs on ABC at 8:30 PM ET. Minnesota is aware of Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray are able to flipping momentum shortly; not simply in a recreation, however in a collection. Denver is aware of Minnesota has waves of massive, athletic defenders who thrive in transition, which implies Aaron Gordon‘s availability is vital. The stakes are excessive in Minneapolis tonight.
The first tipoff of the day sees the Orlando Magic trying to upset the Detroit Pistons in a recreation with an expansion of simply 2.5 factors. Such a small line between a No. 1 seed and the eighth seed within the bracket speaks to how aggressive this collection has proved over the primary two conferences. The winner of Game 3 in a tied collection has gone on to win the collection 80% of the time, including weight to an already pivotal contest.
Oklahoma City has received 10 straight first-round games, whereas the Suns enter the sport trying to stave off speak of a sweep. The principal questions for the Suns: can they by some means overcome the dimensions hole on this collection with out Mark Williams? Can home-court capturing variance maintain Phoenix in putting distance down the stretch?
The New York Knicks are supremely motivated to tie this collection with the Atlanta Hawks and keep away from an early exit from the event. New York must unlock productive minutes from Mitchell Robinson to achieve a major rebounding and possession edge in Game 4 — to make up for the clear hole in turnover-to-transition manufacturing that Atlanta enjoys. It does not get higher than when collection do not come down to only expertise, however the trivialities of technique and execution.
With a watch towards uncovering productive streamers and compelling betting angles, let’s check out the day forward.
McCormick’s Bets for Saturday
Mitchell Robinson OVER 6.5 rebounds (-129)
There are simple compatibility points with teammate Karl-Anthony Towns to think about when contemplating a Robinson over. Even with such match considerations, there’s a actual want for the Knicks to vary the possession math so as to overcome pure gaps in transition effectivity and quantity. Robinson affords the clearest path to this objective, suggesting that even a minor spike in minutes — particularly when he is the primary huge on the ground — might see him cruise previous this tally towards a smaller Atlanta roster.
Nikola Jokic to file triple-double (-105)
Taking Jokic’s assists prop at 9.5 prices greater than this extra tethered objective, however it’s additionally exhausting to think about him not enjoying almost each minute tonight. Only 13 groups in NBA historical past have come again from a 3-1 playoff deficit and Denver is one in all them, doing it twice within the 2020 bubble playoffs. If they’ll advance, they primarily should win tonight. To me, this implies greater than 40 minutes of publicity because the central hub for Denver on offense and the glass.
Top Daily Fantasy Values of the Day
$8,100+ Salaries
Cade Cunningham, PG, Detroit Pistons ($10,200)
Jokic is the clear constructing block of the slate, however for a pivot from chalk, Cunningham offers a secure flooring — he has scored at the least 50 DraftKings factors in every recreation of the collection — and a powerful ceiling. The Magic are working exhausting to close down Jalen Duren, however have few solutions for Cunningham’s measurement when getting downhill.
$6,100-$8,000 Salaries
Desmond Bane, SG, Orlando Magic ($7,100)
The pictures simply have not been falling for Bane on this collection. That is because of change. A high-volume shooter of his caliber simply, nicely, retains capturing. The outcomes will observe. The house/street splits additionally favor Bane at present, with timing, spacing, and execution statistically stronger at house. With Bane able to allow them to fly at present, he could possibly be a prime worth at a shallow place.
$3,500-$6,000 Salaries
Donte DiVincenzo, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves ($5,200)
Besides “The Big Ragu” being one in all finest nicknames of the period, DiVincenzo is a two-way winner who serves as a vital connector on each side of the court docket for Minnesota. Willing to take huge pictures and massive defensive assignments, this Villanova product is likely one of the higher values of the slate.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds offered by DraftKings Sportsbook
Detroit Pistons at Orlando Magic
1 p.m. ET on Peacock
Line: Pistons -2.5 (-110) | Magic +2.5 (-110)
Money line: Pistons -135 | Magic +114
Total: 215.5 (-112 O, -108 U)
BPI Projection: Pistons by 3.4, straight up 61%, 216.3 whole factors.
Injury Report:
Pistons: None reported
Magic: Jonathan Isaac, (GTD – Knee)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns
3:30 p.m. ET on NBC
Line: Thunder -9.5 (-110) | Suns +9.5 (-110)
Money line: Thunder -395 | Suns +310
Total: 214.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 7.3, straight up 72%, 211.7 whole factors.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Isaiah Joe, (GTD – Personal); Jalen Williams, (OUT – Hamstring); Thomas Sorber, (OFS – Knee)
Suns: None reported
New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks
6 p.m. ET on NBC
Line: Knicks -2.5 (-102) | Hawks +2.5 (-118)
Money line: Knicks -130 | Hawks +110
Total: 214.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 1.3, straight up 54%, 216.8 whole factors.
Injury Report:
Knicks: None reported
Hawks: Jock Landale, (OUT – Ankle)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves
8:30 p.m. ET on ABC
Line: Nuggets -1.5 (-112) | Timberwolves +1.5 (-108)
Money line: Nuggets -122 | Timberwolves +102
Total: 229.5 (-112 O, -108 U)
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 0, straight up 50%, 227.2 whole factors.
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (GTD – Calf); Peyton Watson, (OUT – Hamstring)
Timberwolves: None reported
