With Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev headlining a draw that has misplaced a number of massive names to withdrawal, the high-altitude ATP Madrid Open needs to be extra open than common this week even when the world #1 Sinner is a heavy favorite. The first spherical is full of intriguing matchups and as all the time, we right here at LWOT can be providing our predictions for each match on the schedule on day two. But who will advance?
ATP Madrid Day 2 Predictions
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Marton Fucsovics
Head-to-head: Fucsovics 1–0 Carreno Busta
Pablo Carreno Busta is a hometown crowd favorite at this occasion, however his current file right here makes for uncomfortable studying, he has misplaced his final six opening-round matches in Madrid. The Spaniard continues to be piecing himself again collectively after his elbow damage worn out most of 2023, and whereas he returned to the highest 100 this season, his clay type has been inconsistent.
He retired mid-match in Barcelona qualifying final week, which raises actual questions on his health heading in. Marton Fucsovics is available in together with his personal struggles, he misplaced within the opening spherical at Monte Carlo to Tabilo however a minimum of he seems to be bodily sound. Their solely earlier assembly went to the Hungarian, and with Carreno Busta carrying an damage cloud and a poor file right here particularly, Fucsovics is the safer decide to advance.
Prediction: Fucsovics in 3
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Reilly Opelka
Head-to-head: Opelka 1–0 Budkov Kjaer
Opelka’s recreation is constructed completely round his huge serve and talent to finish factors rapidly, he’s a real handful on onerous courts and grass. Clay is a special story. His profession ATP clay file sits at 16–23, and during the last 52 weeks it has been an much more worrying 2–5. Madrid’s altitude does quicken the floor barely, which helps Opelka greater than a slower clay would, however it’s nonetheless not his playground. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer got here by way of qualifying right here, beating Moez Echargui in straight units with a clear, aggressive show. The Norwegian qualifier is a cushty clay mover who can prolong rallies and make life tough for a participant who hates grind. Opelka’s serve will win him free factors, however Budkov Kjaer ought to be capable to work the longer exchanges in his favour.
Prediction: Budkov Kjaer in 3
Alexei Popyrin vs Martin Damm
Head-to-head: first assembly
Alexei Popyrin arrives in Madrid in poor general type — his 2026 season has been a wrestle, with a 4–10 file earlier than the clay swing, and he was crushed comfortably by Casper Ruud at Monte Carlo in his clay-court opener. His recreation is constructed for quicker surfaces the place he can hit by way of opponents, and the sluggish grind of clay has persistently uncovered his limitations even when his highly effective forehand is a weapon to be reckoned with. Martin Damm, then again, is a 22-year-old qualifier using real momentum.
He made a semifinal run in Montpellier earlier this season and his all-round recreation has continued to develop. His clay stats at Challenger stage are modest, however he navigated qualifying right here with out dropping a set and his assured ball-striking might hassle a Popyrin who isn’t transferring or believing notably properly proper now.
Prediction: Damm in 3
Gael Monfils vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Head-to-head: first assembly
Gael Monfils is in his farewell season, which provides an emotional dimension to what could possibly be his last match on the Caja Mágica. The Frenchman has been coming to Madrid for 15 years and twice reached the quarter-finals, however that was a very long time in the past. His file right here has barely risen above common since 2010, and his six wins from the final 52 weeks inform you the place he’s in his profession at 39.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli, in the meantime, is in robust clay type. Six of his eight wins in 2026 have come on the grime, and he backed that up with a semi-final run in Marrakech and a last-16 exhibiting in Barcelona final week. He is the extra lively and aggressive participant on this floor proper now, and regardless of the sentimental pull of the event, the Argentine’s clay pedigree in 2026 makes him the clear decide to maneuver by way of.
Prediction: Ugo Carabelli in 3
Main photograph credit score: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
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