Bill Connelly
Multiple Authors
Indiana‘s 2025 national title was jarring in about 100 other ways. That the losingest main program within the sport could win all of it meant that on this new period of college soccer, potentialities are limitless for a program that may rent nicely and make investments correctly.
Sure, it helps fairly a bit should you’re in one of many nation’s two richest conferences. And it actually would not harm to have a spectacularly large alumni base simply ready to be impressed sufficient to spend a lot of cash, as Indiana’s evidently was. For the entire excessive losses within the Hoosiers’ historical past, there was a sleeping big aspect right here that not too many different packages can match.
Still, when Curt Cignetti lifted the national title trophy and cracked a beer, it signaled a second of hope for various packages. College football’s ruling class is a reasonably unique celebration, and the Hoosiers had been the primary first-time national champs since Steve Spurrier’s 1996 Florida barged via the door virtually three many years earlier.
There’s nothing saying we will have a flood of first-time titles transferring ahead, however it’s truthful to marvel what faculty may next be a part of the unique Champions Club. Looking at a wide range of metrics — historic ballot finishes, latest SP+ rankings and averages (and up to date max scores, which might inform us about ceilings), Adam Rittenberg’s most up-to-date Future Power Rankings for power-conference groups, and income information from the final related fiscal yr, posted by USA Today — let’s take a stab at who’s almost definitely to interrupt via.
The first group on the checklist is extraordinarily apparent. Things get attention-grabbing after that.
(Note: There are a lot of methods to suss out who does or would not have a hoop in college soccer. It could make you loopy, so I’m going to maintain this easy by wanting purely at main polls: Only titles awarded by the AP pollsters or the UPI/Coaches ballot rely. Some of the groups beneath, reminiscent of Ole Miss, Arkansas, UCF and most recently Missouri, declare titles. For our functions, these are false claims and people faculties are eligible for the first-timers checklist. Meanwhile, packages like Texas A&M and TCU, which final topped the polls within the Nineteen Thirties, will not be.)
AP top-10 finishes: 13 (2000s peak: No. 2 in 2001, 2012 and 2014)
Projected 2026 SP+: 29.2 (second)
10-year SP+ common: 14.4 (third amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 26.2 (fourth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: first amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $153.5 million
For No. 1 right here, there is not any rigidity by any means: Oregon is apparent.
The Ducks reached the national title sport in 2010 and 2014 and have completed second within the polls 3 times on this century. In 2026 they’re projected second in SP+ and are the No. 4 betting favourite for the national title. They’re additionally almost upset-proof beneath Dan Lanning: The final time they misplaced to a group that did not attain the national title sport was towards Oregon State late within the 2022 season. That was virtually 4 years in the past. Getting blown out in every of the previous two College Football Playoffs might need eliminated a touch of shine, however once you lose solely to the very best of the very best, it most likely means you are near being the very best your self. This is a dynamite program that has earned its place within the Champions Club, even when it is needed to wait a bit longer than anticipated for membership.
AP top-10 finishes: 1 (2000s peak: No. 7 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: 21.8 (eighth)
10-year SP+ common: 7.5 (14th amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 27.6 (third amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: second amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $110.2 million
The energy of the checkbook has allowed Tech to chop in line. Going strictly by the metrics above, the Red Raiders ought to be round sixth on the checklist, even with an emphasis on 2026 projections. But with large spending and unbelievable expertise analysis, Joey McGuire’s program surged to various firsts final season: First Big 12 title, first top-10 end, first CFP berth, and so on. No matter how a lot final yr’s roster value, an enormous proportion of the transfers Tech added to its 2025 roster outperformed any manufacturing at earlier stops; for the second, at the least, the Red Raiders workers will get full advantage of the doubt.
This program is loaded and ready to make various runs at CFP berths within the coming seasons. It stinks that you just may want a sugar daddy oil billionaire to compete for a title should you aren’t within the Big Ten or SEC, however Tech has one, in order that’s an issue for different packages.
3. Ole Miss Rebels
AP top-10 finishes: 13 (2000s peak: No. 3 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: 16.5 (sixteenth)
10-year SP+ common: 13.4 (fifth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 27.9 (second amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: third amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $133.6 million
Ole Miss’ place on this checklist is blurry, because it claims the 1959, 1960 and 1962 titles. (For no matter it is value, the Rebels had been first in SP+ in 4 of 5 seasons between 1959 and 1963.) But it has by no means completed atop the polls, so right here they’re. And contemplating they mainly completed one play in need of a spot in final yr’s national title sport, they’re able to an enormous run.
One main query for the approaching years: Is a Pete Golding program as able to mentioned run as Lane Kiffin’s program was? Kiffin was Ole Miss’ greatest head coach of the previous half-century, and whereas Golding might need the very best backfield within the nation at his disposal with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and operating again Kewan Lacy, they’re going to every be gone after 2026, and Golding’s program must stand by itself. We’ll see what the Rebels have to supply transferring ahead.
AP top-10 finishes: 13 (2000s peak: No. 7 in 2009)
Projected 2026 SP+: 14.6 (twenty second)
10-year SP+ common: 16.1 (first amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 22.8 (fifth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: fifth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $151.5 million
That Iowa — one other program with a couple of historic title claims however no high ballot finishes — has the very best common SP+ ranking of any group right here over the past 10 years, however solely the fifth-best peak, tells a reasonably clear story. Kirk Ferentz’s Hawkeyes have generated a degree of consistency that few packages ever see, successful between eight and 10 video games in 11 of the previous 13 seasons and claiming a top-15 protection, per SP+, for 11 straight years. When the breaks go their method in shut video games, they win 10; after they do not, it is extra like eight. Keep that up, and so they’ll attain the CFP fairly quickly.
They’ll nonetheless need to win three or 4 video games after they get there, nonetheless, and so they’ve misplaced their previous seven video games towards top-10 groups by a mean of 33-7. Raw upside is Iowa’s largest challenge; it is a high-floor, lower-ceiling program, and we’ll see if it may well work out a method to bridge that hole. If Indiana can, the Hawkeyes can, proper?
5. Missouri Tigers
AP top-10 finishes: 9 (2000s peak: No. 4 in 2007)
Projected 2026 SP+: 15.4 (nineteenth)
10-year SP+ common: 10.5 (seventh amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 19.3 (twelfth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: tenth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $141.2 million
In the 13 seasons since Missouri joined the SEC, the Tigers have loved 4 seasons with double-digit wins. In that span, solely 5 SEC groups — Alabama, Georgia , LSU, Oklahoma and Ole Miss — have loved extra, and OU was within the Big 12 till 2024. Mizzou has received 29 video games prior to now three seasons, with a mean SP+ rating of 16.7. The Tigers had at the least one top-15 rating on each offense and protection in that span. Eli Drinkwitz has proved he can amass elite potential on each side of the ball.
Drinkwitz has raised this system’s recruiting profile and has proven a deft contact within the portal in latest seasons, and Mizzou’s ceiling has risen as nicely. Of course, sustaining an edge within the SEC is fairly tough, and the Tigers’ high quality has slipped a smidgen in each years since their 2023 surge. But they seem to be a projected top-20ish group once more this season, and in Austin Simmons, Drinkwitz attracted one of the crucial high-ceiling (if additionally slightly low-floor) QBs within the portal this offseason.
AP top-10 finishes: 2 (2000s peak: No. 6 in 2004 and 2006)
Projected 2026 SP+: 11.1 (twenty seventh)
10-year SP+ common: 7.3 (fifteenth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 19.7 (eleventh amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: sixth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $146.2 million
Louisville has received at the least 9 video games for 3 straight seasons and in seven of the previous 14. Under Jeff Brohm, the Cardinals have been constantly explosive and thrilling, with quarterback play someplace between stable and nice. Brohm can also be a significant participant within the switch portal and could provide you with simply the precise alchemy for an ACC title run quickly. The faculty additionally produces Big Ten- or SEC-level athletic income, which is a key cause there’s a number of potential and it’s on this checklist.
AP top-10 finishes: 4 (2000s peak: No. 2 in 2008)
Projected 2026 SP+: 9.8 (thirtieth)
10-year SP+ common: 14.5 (second amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 22.2 (sixth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: seventh amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $115.7 million
In the early 2000s, Utah made probably the greatest units of back-to-back hires on report, first bringing in Urban Meyer for a supernova burst of greatness, then changing him with Kyle Whittingham, who loved eight seasons of double-digit wins and 4 top-15 finishes in 21 years. Whittingham ran a sturdy and robust program, and Utah would rank a bit greater right here if he hadn’t left for Michigan final winter. Maybe new coach Morgan Scalley kicks issues up one other notch, however uncertainty knocks the Utes down a spot or two.
AP top-10 finishes: 6 (2000s peak: No. 12 in 2001)
Projected 2026 SP+: 10.4 (twenty eighth)
10-year SP+ common: 1.5 (thirty fourth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 15.8 (twenty seventh amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: eleventh amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $145.7 million
An Iowa grad and former Wisconsin head coach, Bret Bielema is constructing a sturdy, bodily program the place one has hardly ever existed earlier than. His Fighting Illini have received at the least eight video games in three of the previous 4 seasons, and after a momentary stumble in 2023, they bounced again to win 19 video games in 2024-25.
The Illini’s offense has improved by leaps and bounds of late, whereas the protection has alternated between respectable and superior. Combine regular play with Big Ten cash, and you’ve got the potential for an Indiana-like rise. Their 2026 season will inform us so much about their potential, although: They return solely 4 offensive starters and are taking up a significant rebuild (and coordinator change) on protection.
AP top-10 finishes: 6 (2000s peak: No. 12 in 2024)
Projected 2026 SP+: 12.1 (twenty fifth)
10-year SP+ common: 3.7 (twenty eighth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 17.5 (sixteenth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: fourth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: N/A (not offered for personal universities)
Never thoughts SMU’s uniquely sordid and interesting historical past and look solely at this second in time: Over the previous three seasons, solely eight power-conference groups can high SMU’s 31 mixed wins: Oregon (38), Ohio State (37), Georgia (36), Texas (35), Ole Miss (34), Notre Dame (34), Michigan (32) and Alabama (32). That’s seven groups with at the least one semifinal run in that span, plus Georgia, the 2021-22 national champion. That’s fairly good firm.
Under Rhett Lashlee, SMU mainly purchased its method into the ACC and instantly grew to become one among its extra promising packages. We know what sort of recruiting base Dallas affords, and it seems this program is led by somebody able to getting probably the most out of it. Maybe that does not create a national title-level ceiling, however … perhaps it does?
AP top-10 finishes: 14 (2000s peak: No. 7 in 2006, 2010 and 2017)
Projected 2026 SP+: 3.8 (53rd)
10-year SP+ common: 14.2 (fourth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 30.9 (first amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: twenty eighth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $150.1 million
Not too way back, Wisconsin would have been a surefire top-five group on a listing like this. But after a run of 10 seasons of double-digit wins, with 5 top-10 finishes, between 2005-19, the Badgers first wobbled, then collapsed. They introduced in Luke Fickell in what positive appeared like a house run rent in 2023, however he’s 16-21, and his win whole has sunk every season. Still, their 10-year averages present their potential, and their income figures are high notch. It would be nice to see some proof of idea in 2026.
AP top-10 finishes: 3 (2000s peak: No. 4 in 2013)
Projected 2026 SP+: 12.6 (twenty fourth)
10-year SP+ common: 6.9 (tenth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 16.9 (18th amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: twenty first amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $142.2 million
Steve Spurrier’s outstanding early 2010s run confirmed us what a well-run South Carolina program could be able to, and Shane Beamer’s five-year tenure, irritating and inconsistent as it’d be, has offered a few elite, if temporary, runs. Just a yr in the past, the Gamecocks had been coming off of a nine-win season and had been believed to have top-10 potential. Their ensuing collapse reminded us how arduous it’s to maintain a traditionally lesser program pointed in the precise course, however few potential first-timers have extra apparent upside.
AP top-10 finishes: none (2000s peak: No. 16 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: 8.1 (thirty seventh)
10-year SP+ common: 0.1 (thirty ninth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 11.1 (forty third amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: sixteenth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $161.9 million
Maybe no program on this checklist is extra particularly attempting to comply with the Indiana mannequin to success. In 2026, Virginia will mix Big Ten-level income — nobody on this checklist can high the $161.9 million UVA generated within the final fiscal yr on report — with perhaps probably the most skilled roster in FBS. Tony Elliott’s Cavaliers do not have Indiana’s upside, however for the second straight yr, they’ll roll out a transfer-heavy lineup stuffed with grown males who have performed a lot of college ball. Does this method depart you weak to the occasional dud switch class? Yes. It additionally led to an 11-win season in 2025.
AP top-10 finishes: 6 (2000s peak: No. 8 in 2015)
Projected 2026 SP+: 7.4 (thirty eighth)
10-year SP+ common: 2.3 (thirty first amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 12.6 (thirty ninth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: eighth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $78.1 million
Over the final 12 months, Willie Fritz and Houston have proved able to each successful double-digit video games (the Cougars had been 10-3 in 2025) and signing five-star quarterbacks. Landing Keisean Henderson, the No. 4 prospect of 2026, was an announcement of intent, as was the bold signing of a high-level (and certainly fairly costly) switch class that included three all-conference FBS offensive linemen and former Fritz participant and Tulane star Makhi Hughes. The basic numbers proven above aren’t significantly nice, however Houston is aiming excessive.
AP top-10 finishes: 5 (2000s peak: No. 4 in 2009)
Projected 2026 SP+: 5.1 (forty ninth)
10-year SP+ common: 6.9 (18th amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 10.3 (forty ninth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: N/A (energy conferences solely)
Last FY income: $50.6 million
The best capability, as they are saying, is availability. And if step one to successful the CFP is being in it, Boise State’s positioning should be taken into consideration. The Broncos stay the mid-major gold customary, even after final yr’s unusual and irritating 9-5 marketing campaign. Over the previous 27 seasons, they’ve received at the least 10 video games 19 instances and brought house 17 convention titles, and so they’re apparent favorites within the first yr of the freshly redesigned Pac-12.
BSU attracts star-level expertise like virtually nobody within the Group of 6 can — defensive finish Jayden Virgin-Morgan was the highest-ranked G6 participant on this yr’s preseason Player Rank, and Ashton Jeanty almost received the Heisman in 2024. And whereas it has been some time for the reason that Broncos took down a top-level group, they nonetheless got here inside three factors of beating Oregon in 2024 and had been accomplished in solely by a poor begin towards Penn State within the 2024 CFP.
AP top-10 finishes: 2 (2000s peak: No. 12 in 2018)
Projected 2026 SP+: 5.2 (forty seventh)
10-year SP+ common: 9.6 (ninth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 17.6 (fifteenth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: twenty second amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $159.1 million
Like rival Louisville, Kentucky derives a degree of income from basketball that few others could hope for and likewise boasts latest gridiron success. Mark Stoops could not hold the nice instances rolling after 10-win seasons in 2018 and 2021, and final yr’s group was UK’s worst in a decade. But the varsity grabbed former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein, and no new head coach on this cycle places off extra Potential Dan Lanning vibes.
Stein instantly made some aggressive strikes to improve the Wildcats’ line play, and his first Kentucky group will be large, bodily and sure improved. We do not know almost sufficient concerning the Wildcats’ potential ceiling beneath Stein, however they’ve cash and a younger, hungry head coach. That’s usually an thrilling mixture.
AP top-10 finishes: none (2000s peak: No. 15 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: 9.8 (twenty ninth)
10-year SP+ common: -2.2 (forty eighth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 20.3 (tenth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: thirteenth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: N/A (not offered for personal universities)
Clark Lea went 9-27 in his first three seasons at Vanderbilt however pulled off a miraculous (and unusually New Mexico State-flavored) turnaround — first to 7-6 in 2024, then to 10-3 final fall. And like Houston’s Willie Fritz, he parlayed that success into recruiting success, touchdown five-star QB Jared Curtis. That’s actually one method to comply with up on the success of Diego Pavia & Co. We do not know what Vandy’s able to long run, and the Commodores’ largely poor play via the many years actually tamps down their rating on this checklist. But Indiana simply proved that the previous would not essentially need to matter. Maybe it will not for Vandy both?
17. Arkansas Razorbacks
AP top-10 finishes: 14 (2000s peak: No. 5 in 2011)
Projected 2026 SP+: 5.6 (forty fourth)
10-year SP+ common: 3.3 (twenty ninth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 16.2 (twenty fourth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: thirty second amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $152.5 million
Arkansas was as soon as a real powerhouse: The Razorbacks loved 12 top-10 finishes within the 24 seasons between 1959 and 1982, beneath first Frank Broyles after which Lou Holtz, and so they declare the 1964 title because of an 11-0 end (although they completed second within the AP ballot). Since Holtz was swiftly dismissed in 1983, nonetheless, they’ve solely a single AP top-10 end to their title. They have not even completed within the high 20 in 14 seasons. They have historical past, and so they have significantly wealthy donors with cash to burn, which supplies them a case to be ranked a lot greater on this checklist. But they’ve little or no latest proof of idea. Can new head coach Ryan Silverfield awaken a sleeping big?
AP top-10 finishes: 4 (2000s peak: No. 3 in 2011)
Projected 2026 SP+: 6.9 (thirty ninth)
10-year SP+ common: 8.5 (eleventh amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 20.8 (ninth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: nineteenth amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $104.4 million
Like Wisconsin, OSU would have occupied a far greater place on this checklist had I made it a couple of years in the past. Thanks to each Mike Gundy’s dedication to innovation and the checkbooks of donors like T. Boone Pickens (after whom their stadium is now named), the Cowboys received double-digit video games eight instances between 2010 and 2023 and got here achingly near a national title sport bid in 2011. But Gundy’s offense stopped innovating and he could not come near fixing the transfers-and-NIL period. OSU has gone simply 4-20 over the previous two seasons.
Thanks to the import of each coach Eric Morris — perhaps the single-best QB evaluator of the 2020s — and various his North Texas stars from final season, nonetheless, the Pokes have an opportunity to instantly climb again up the Big 12 ladder. With offensive success and correct classes realized, that is nonetheless a program with high-level potential.
AP top-10 finishes: 7 (2000s peak: No. 6 in 2000)
Projected 2026 SP+: 8.6 (thirty sixth)
10-year SP+ common: 4.7 (twenty second amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 16.1 (twenty sixth amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: 14th amongst potential first-timers
Last FY income: $113.0 million
Another fallen program with an opportunity at a right away enhance. James Franklin takes over a Tech group that received at the least 10 video games 14 instances within the 22 seasons between 1995 and 2016 however has gone simply 30-43 within the 2020s. Franklin constructed a wonderful program at Penn State — albeit one which could by no means fairly work out the ultimate hurdle — and if he merely recruits nicely (which he’s already doing) and will get the booster arrows all pointed in the identical course, Tech ought to shortly reestablish at the least a top-20 or top-30 degree of play. Would the Hokies be able to much more than that? We’ll see.
AP top-10 finishes: none (2000s peak: No. 19 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: -0.9 (seventieth)
10-year SP+ common: 9.9 (eighth amongst potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 12.3 (forty first amongst potential first-timers)
Rittenberg rating: N/A
Last FY income: $57,800,447
We’re going to study so much about James Madison in 2026. The Dukes timed their FBS soar completely and have gone 32-8 over their previous three seasons. Their previous three hires went a mixed 110-21 on the job, and so they suffered solely a quick setback following Curt Cignetti’s departure for Indiana in 2024. By 2025, they had been making their CFP debut with Bob Chesney. They seem to have the strongest non-Boise infrastructure within the G6, however with Chesney off to UCLA (and most of their starters gone), Billy Napier now turns into the Dukes’ third head coach in 4 seasons. If they once more rule the Sun Belt, then it is truthful to guess they’re going to proceed doing so — and proceed threatening for CFP bids — for the foreseeable future. And once more, to win the CFP, you first need to make the CFP.