I can not emphasize sufficient the diploma to which I believe lineup construction is overrated in the discourse relative to the distinction it makes in follow. I nearly don’t even wish to publish this. But even with that caveat, lineup construction doesn’t not matter, and I believe we noticed a mistake final night time. So due to a dialog between customers GrasshoppingonNails, AJPDX, GrassRockFish, and rumdoodle on this morning’s Moose Tracks, I’m posting this regardless of my hesitance.
As famous on the broadcast, Rob Refsnyder has the third-highest OBP against LHP since 2023, behind solely Vladito and Aaron Judge. So I completely get why the Mariners would wish to have him in the leadoff spot to get on base forward of the staff’s massive bats. And that’s what the Mariners did:
This makes a specific amount of sense. With Refsnyder at leadoff, you’re maximizing the odds that he will get three turns against a lefty, which is nice. The drawback is that the lineup is a circle. Having settled on a DH platoon of Refsnyder and Dominic Canzone, we all know the Mariners are (appropriately) anticipating pinch-hitting the lefty-swinging Canzone for Refsnyder as soon as a reliever is available in. But as soon as they do this, they’ve arrange a Young-Canzone back-to-back of lefties for the subsequent time via. That’s completely suited to a staff’s left-handed reliever. Then you’re both getting Canzone versus a lefty or else utilizing Mitch Garver or (gulp) Ryan Bliss as one more pinch hitter. None of these conditions are supreme relative to Canzone versus a righty or Refsnyder versus a lefty.
That scenario is precisely what arose final night time, as Ryan Bliss pinch-hit against Erik Sabrowski after which needed to face Cade Smith with the recreation on the line in the ninth. You don’t must be as down on Bliss as I’m to guess how that went.
My proposed resolution is fairly easy. Against LHP, make the 1-2-3 Julio-Refsnyder-Cal. That method, as soon as Canzone is in, there’s no lefty pocket. If an opponent needs to usher in a left-handed reliever to face Young and Canzone or power a substitution, they must make the sacrifice of letting Julio face a lefty. Maybe they’ll nonetheless do it, however at the very least they must make a tradeoff. Historically, Julio doesn’t carry out that a lot better against southpaws than northpaws, however he’s additionally nearly by no means confronted lefty relievers with massive platoon splits. This construction would both give him that chance or else hold a righty in against at the very least one among Young or Canzone.
To make sure, this will get extra difficult as soon as J.P. Crawford returns. I’m anticipating that lineup to look a lot the similar however with a backside 4 of Donovan, J.P., Robles, and Young in some order. Because Víctor Robles is platooning with Luke Raley, you find yourself with the same scenario of a lefty pocket. But as a result of it’s at the backside of the order, that pocket is far much less prone to come to the plate twice after the starter comes out than the high of the order is. So as soon as Robles is out and Raley is in, it’s much less seemingly that pocket will come up once more and be exploitable with a left-handed reliever.
And in any occasion, having these 4 at the backside of the order is going on no matter how the high three are arrange. If something, it’s but another excuse to maneuver Refsnyder from leadoff to second. That helps cut up up the two platoon spots as far aside as attainable.
Of course, baseball isn’t simply names on a web page. These are human beings we’re speaking about, and there could also be one thing the staff sees in giving Julio and Cal the similar lineup spots day-after-day, irrespective of who they’re going through. Baseball gamers are famously creatures of behavior, and people are the two most necessary bats. In explicit, Julio didn’t love hitting in the leadoff spot because it ensures he’ll have to steer off an inning at the very least as soon as, and he doesn’t like having to get into focus so rapidly after the lengthy jog again from centerfield. If that is what’s motivating the staff, then don’t let my machinations get in the method. But if not, I like to recommend shuffling the high three against southpaws.
