2026 NBA draft: What scouts, execs are watching in top five picks

The NBA’s regular season has greater than per week remaining, however many crew executives’ focus has already shifted to May 10. That’s the day the league will conduct its annual lottery to find out the draft order for what has an opportunity to be a particular 2026 class.

With the men’s Final Four taking place this weekend, what are league insiders saying about BYU wing AJ Dybantsa, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, Duke ahead Cameron Boozer and different top prospects?

We requested greater than a dozen NBA scouts and executives for his or her ideas on the potential draft order, the elite gamers and the glut of level guards who might outline the early part of Round 1.

Who do you count on to go No. 1?

With Dybantsa, Peterson and Boozer all executed with their freshman seasons, a good race for the No. 1 choose will play out behind closed doorways.

And whereas groups proceed to emphasize that subsequent month’s lottery will play a significant component, the vast majority of scouts and executives interviewed see Dybantsa as the favourite.

“I guess you’d rather fail with [AJ] and his upside, than not,” a Western Conference basic supervisor informed ESPN. “And I know Peterson has upside, maybe Boozer’s upside is a little bit less. … I just think that [AJ], because he’s 6-9 and he could be like 6-10, 230 [pounds] by the time he’s 25 years old, he could just be a monster. I think you’ve just got to go down swinging with him if you go down.”

“I think Peterson is the most talented guy,” an Eastern Conference govt mentioned, “but the injury stuff is a real question. That’s a valid concern, and it’s been a weird year. But he’s a huge talent, and he was No. 1 at the start of the season for a reason.”

Some executives most well-liked Peterson, who endured an uneven season at Kansas that featured jaw-dropping moments of brilliance blended with damage absences and stretches when he made little impression on the ground.

Others favored Boozer, who simply completed one of many nice statistical seasons in faculty basketball historical past — Boozer is the one participant in the nation to complete in the top 12 in factors (22.5) and rebounds (10.2) per recreation — in powering Duke to inside one 35-foot miracle of reaching the Final Four.

Either approach, as a Western Conference govt laid out, the deep expertise pool creates an opportunity for this yr’s draft to go in many instructions.

“I feel this draft is, in some methods, just like the [2024 Zaccharie] Risacher yr, however on the next stage,” they mentioned. “That year it was like, ‘Is anyone going to be really good?’ This year, it’s like, ‘Well, s—, there’s a lot of guys.’ You have high confidence that at least some of them are going to be really, really good. You’re not really sure which ones.

“You do not wish to be drafting at 1 and find yourself with the fifth-best participant.”

Where do you stand on Peterson’s draft stock?

Even as Dybantsa has solidified his case for No. 1, nobody is willing to completely rule out Peterson. The most talented scorer in this freshman class, Peterson was plagued by leg injuries and cramping issues that limited him to 24 games.

“It’s undoubtedly a factor,” an East scout said. “If you are a crew that is in the combination for the No. 1 or 2 choose, you are going to need to get a ton of knowledge on what occurred, and why.”

Getting more information on Peterson’s body, most importantly whether any of the issues will be longer-lasting concerns, was labeled by many league insiders as a critical part of the predraft process. When Peterson is right, such as when he thoroughly outplayed Dybantsa in the first half of their showdown in Lawrence, Kansas, in front of dozens of NBA executives, he looks like a special player.

“I feel it forces you to start out asking a bunch of questions that you simply usually would not need to ask for a man like [Peterson],” a West executive said. “Just the administration of his state of affairs and his [health] uncovered him to some stage of additional investigation, previous the already intense investigation a No. 1 choose would go underneath.

“In the coming months, there is a non-zero chance that the root of this issue, depending on what it is, could affect his stock.”

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Where ought to Boozer slot in?

Few gamers have entered the draft course of in a extra fascinating place.

The son of an All-Star power forward, Boozer will enter the league with an extended historical past of on-court success. He has gained at each stage at which he has performed, together with a dominant statistical marketing campaign that helped carry Duke to the Elite Eight.

All of that screams top choose, however Boozer’s draft profile is full of questions on his potential lack of explosiveness and quickness, and whether or not he is a one-position participant at energy ahead.

“I’m not a huge fan of a one-position 4,” an East scout mentioned. “If that’s what he is, then you have to build your team specifically around that, given his lack of versatility.”

One East govt in contrast the dialog round Boozer’s draft inventory to a different extremely touted participant who gained at each stage however had athleticism questions coming into the league: Luka Doncic.

“He doesn’t look the part athletically, so people put limits on him,” they mentioned of Boozer. “I don’t know why people keep putting a ceiling on him before he’s 19. There’s a lot of ways to talk about athleticism, not just how high you can jump, and he always plays the most efficient way he can to help his team win.”

Virtually everybody interviewed agreed that Boozer’s recreation has the best flooring of any participant in the draft, nonetheless.

“I think people have gone numb to him and the production and the archetype,” one other East govt mentioned. “The versatility he brings offensively is 1-of-1 in this class.

“I perceive the issues: the ending, lack of rim safety, heavy legs. But he’s an offensive catalyst to me — [assume Domantas] Sabonis, [Alperen] Sengun, any of the others who’ve been knocked for athleticism. IQ and really feel have overcome a lot. I feel he has answered each query he can.”

Is Wilson locked in at No. 4?

North Carolina’s Caleb Wilson, the No. 4 prospect in ESPN’s top 100 rankings, was a breakout star this season, taking a major developmental leap as a freshman and establishing himself as a likely top-five pick. The physical, toolsy forward has drawn comparisons to Pascal Siakam and Aaron Gordon — high-energy, versatile defenders who have the skill and playmaking ability to help drive secondary offense.

Wilson’s draft momentum slowed thanks to a run of bad injury luck: breaking his left hand Feb. 10, then his right thumb in practice in early March while working toward a postseason return.

That hasn’t stopped him from picking up many fans along the way.

“Caleb has been extra productive and performed more durable in faculty than [Atlanta Hawks All-Star] Jalen Johnson, who in faculty was extra perimeter oriented,” an East executive said. “If you thought Cam [Boozer] is Al Horford or one thing like that, and also you thought Caleb was like Jalen, then you could possibly go Caleb.”

Multiple scouts and executives believe Wilson’s game, because of his combination of length, potential and athleticism, screams high-level upside and could vault him into the top three of the draft between now and late June. His candidacy is viewed as more based on fit, ultimately depending on how the lottery falls and team needs.

“The intel piece on him is unimaginable,” another East executive said.

“I feel he might simply go three,” an East scout said. “I might see him being most well-liked to Boozer there.”

Which guard fits best at No. 5?

A clear consensus is starting to build for Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer and Wilson atop draft boards. After that, there’s a glut of ballhandling guards who will determine the direction of the draft.

And, depending on who’s talking, there’s a different ranking among Arkansas’ Darius Acuff Jr., Houston’s Kingston Flemings and Illinois’ Keaton Wagler, with some preferring Louisville’s Mikel Brown Jr. and Arizona’s Brayden Burries, too.

Several executives cited how important combine measurements could be in this process, particularly for Acuff (listed at 6-3) and Flemings (6-4). That duo and Wagler (6-6) are widely considered the strongest candidates for the No. 5 spot.

Let’s start with Acuff, an explosive scoring guard with concerns about his size and defense at the next level. His final two months of the season, which included an SEC tournament title run, won over a lot of people around the NBA, but those shortcomings will make team construction and fit a pivotal factor.

“Just the shotmaking, killer intuition he has proven, his capacity to attain in any respect three ranges,” an East executive said. “His protection does fear me some, however he has needed to carry a pretty big load.”

“I feel there’s by no means been a worse time to construct round dangerous defensive guards,” a West executive said. “We see this time and time once more — the flashiest offensive impression in the draft does not essentially find yourself profitable essentially the most.

“It finally ends up being, you understand, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday and Alex Caruso, go down the record. And we type of have proof of idea of this proper now on the commerce market. Trae Young was traded for basically nothing. … People fall in love with guards, and I know of a bunch of teams who are falling in love with Acuff right now.”

Flemings, in the meantime, is a robust and fast two-way participant who earned plaudits for eager to play for Houston coach Kelvin Sampson, an old-school taskmaster and disciplinarian. His shot and measurement, nonetheless, are potential issues.

“Kingston operates a little bit differently — a better overall package when you look at both ends of the floor,” a West govt mentioned. “He’s really impressive … to come in as a freshman and play the role he’s played on one of the top teams in the country and on a team that notoriously isn’t easy to play for if you don’t play hard.”

“It’s so impressive that the big shots are his, on a team with experienced guards that have been there and won at that school,” an East scout mentioned. “You see his shot form, but I’ll bet on all the other stuff and we can work with his jump shot.”

Wagler, however, is a exceptional story, having burst onto the scene through the Illini’s run to the Final Four, turning himself right into a mid-lottery choose in the method. A 3-star highschool recruit who entered the season with no nationwide profile, Wagler’s capacity to play each on and off the ball at his measurement offers him added function versatility.

“When people talk about ceiling arguments, they get into the physical stuff,” an East govt mentioned. “But the thing that unites all of the top [NBA] players is being elite mentally, and that’s the thing that gets underrated in all of this.”

“[Wagler] is going to have to get stronger,” a West govt mentioned, “but I’ll take my chances on a 6-6 guy who can basically run the show. And he plays with such tremendous pace and feel.”