Over the past 40 years, No. 12 seeds have held a win price of 35.6% and total report of 57-103 within the NCAA Tournament.
This is largely as a result of the hole between the golf equipment is never as large as it may seem on paper. The No. 5 seeds are often reserved for middling big-conference packages that fell barely in need of expectations, whereas the No. 12 seeds are sometimes granted to smaller-conference packages that received their convention tournaments, enter the NCAA Tournament on a large profitable streak and are beaming with confidence.
Both of those efficiency arcs confirmed up final yr as No. 12 seeds went 2-2 within the opening spherical. McNeese State defeated No. 5 Clemson 69–67, whereas Colorado State defeated No. 5 Memphis 78–70. Can the No. 12 seeds within the 2026 NCAA Tournament match this success?
No. 12 vs. No. 5 seed upset rankings
We’ll take a look at the matchups between this yr’s No. 12 and No. 5 seeds and rank which upsets are most probably to happen. These are ordered from least more likely to most probably.
4. Northern Iowa over St. John’s
Like many school basketball observers, we thought the Red Storm, who received each the Big East common season and match titles, had been snubbed by the choice committee with a comparatively modest No. 5 seed within the NCAA Tournament. Moreover, we anticipate them to play with a proverbial chip on their shoulders in consequence, not that this Rick Pitino-coached group was gentle on motivation earlier than Selection Sunday.
Northern Iowa was as soon as a staple of the NCAA Tournament, making 4 memorable appearances in a seven-year span, however this would be the Panthers’ first journey to the Big Dance since 2016. They completed sixth within the Missouri Valley Conference earlier than embarking on a convention match title tun to safe the automated bid.
While we anticipate the Panthers to hold round for some time, the Red Storm ought to flex their muscle and draw back from a Northern Iowa membership that’s restricted on the offensive finish (69.9 factors per recreation).
3. High Point over Wisconsin
The late-blooming Badgers surged down the stretch with an 8-2-mark within the rugged Big Ten, which included a stable convention match exhibiting that ended with a 68-65 semifinal loss to regular-season champion Michigan, which went on to earn a No. 1 seed within the NCAA Tournament.
Wisconsin boasts one of many nation’s prime again courts in Nick Boyd and (*5*), each of whom are juniors and mixed to common practically 40 factors per recreation. A size-heavy entrance court docket is led by expert 7-footer Noah Winter, who’s placing up 13.3 factors and eight.6 rebounds per contest.
The Panthers are a high-scoring (90 ppg) and skilled membership that received each the Big South common season and match titles. This 30-win group options 9 gamers who log at the least 16 minutes per recreation, however we see the huge step up in competitors in opposition to the Badgers placing an finish to High Point‘s win streak at 14.
2. McNeese over Vanderbilt
McNeese guard Larry Johnson is probably going the most effective school basketball participant along with his surname because the iconic UNLV ahead of the identical identify led the Rebels to a nationwide title 36 years in the past. The 6-4 freshman is a guard however has the physicality to attract comparisons to the all-time UNLV nice. He is averaging 17.5 factors and 5.5 rebounds per recreation.
The Southland champion Cowboys are 14-1 of their final 15 and are driving a 10-game profitable streak into the NCAA Tournament. The gifted however erratic Commodores flashed properly with a late-season run that noticed them attain the SEC title recreation, however they may have their fingers full in opposition to a McNeese membership that’s stable on each ends of the ground and may play with a fearless disposition.
1. Akron over Texas Tech
The Red Raiders performed properly within the fast aftermath of the season-ending harm to star (*12*), however they struggled down the stretch with three consecutive losses, together with a 75-53 loss to Iowa State within the convention match.
This Texas Tech membership understandably has a restricted ceiling minus the companies of its finest participant, whereas it runs into an Akron membership that enters the NCAA Tournament on a 10-game profitable streak that features the MAC Tournament title.
Akron is a deep membership that options 4 starters averaging in double figures and eight gamers who log at the least 11.7 minutes per recreation. We may envision the high-scoring Zips (88.4 ppg, No. 9 nationally), getting sizzling down the stretch and outlasting a restricted Texas Tech membership.
