There is sweet information and dangerous information for the No. 10 seeds on this yr’s NCAA Tournament.
The excellent news: A No. 10 seed has crushed a No. 7 seed in every of the final 17 tournaments. The dangerous information: Just two No. 10 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 prior to now eight tournaments.
This yr Missouri, Santa Clara, Texas A&M and UCF are the No. 10 seeds that can attempt to get previous the primary weekend. But they first should get previous the primary spherical.
No. 7 vs. No. 10 seed upset rankings
We’ll have a look at the matchups between this yr’s No. 7 and No. 10 seeds and rank which upsets are most definitely to happen. These are ordered from least more likely to most definitely.
4. Texas A&M over Saint Mary’s
Like the varsity’s soccer staff final fall, the Texas A&M basketball staff began off scorching and light down the stretch. The Aggies (21-11) started the season 17-4 total and 7-1 in SEC play earlier than dropping seven of their final 11 and squeaking into the 68-team discipline.
Thursday’s recreation will probably be a distinction of kinds. A&M performs on the twenty ninth quickest tempo within the nation (70.5 possessions per 40 minutes), which is a significant cause the staff averages 87.7 factors per recreation (ninth within the nation). Meanwhile, Saint Mary’s ranks 298th in tempo (65.2 possessions per 40). Despite enjoying at a slower tempo—or maybe due to it—the Gaels have a extra environment friendly offense than A&M, averaging 120.4 factors per 100 possessions to the Aggies’ 119.7.
Saint Mary’s, on paper, has an enormous benefit on the boards. The twelfth tallest staff within the nation per KenPom, the Gaels rank fourth within the nation in rebounding margin (11.3 per recreation). By distinction, A&M is 228th in Div. I in rebound margin (-0.2). Rebounding and tempo are two the reason why Saint Mary’s limits opponents to only 64.6 factors per recreation (seventh within the nation).
In addition, the Aggies are liable to fouling; they rank 325th within the nation in fouls per recreation (19.3). That doesn’t bode nicely towards the Gaels, who lead all of Div. I in free throw taking pictures (80.5%).
3. UCF over UCLA
The Knights (21-11) are simply 1-5 in 5 earlier NCAA Tournament appearances however enter their first match since 2019 with some spectacular wins: Kansas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and BYU, amongst others. Led by speedy level guard Themus Fulks, the Knights prefer to push the ball, averaging 69.2 possessions per 40 minutes (79th within the nation). UCF will wish to play the sport at its tempo towards a UCLA staff that ranks 318th in possessions per 40 (64.7).
But the Knights are usually not enjoying their finest basketball. They have misplaced 4 of their final 5, and the one win over that point was an extra time victory over Cincinnati at residence.
By distinction, the Bruins (23-11) have gained 4 of their final 5 and 6 of their final eight. That stretch consists of victories over No. 8 Michigan State, No. 9 Nebraska and No. 10 (*10*).
UCF’s probabilities to tug off the upset could be drastically enhanced if UCLA’s high two main scorers, Tyler Bilodeau (17.6 factors per recreation) and Donovan Dent (13.5), can not return from the accidents that sidelined them final week within the Big Ten match. But Dent says he is again to 100%, and coach Mick Cronin stated that Bilodeau ought to return to follow this week.
2. Santa Clara over Kentucky
The $22 million staff taking place within the first spherical to a program that hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1996? It definitely wouldn’t be a shock.
The (*7*) (21-13) have been up-and-down in coach Mark Pope’s second season—largely down when you ask a rabid Big Blue fan. But one factor that has been constant is the staff’s struggles taking pictures the ball from the perimeter. The Wildcats make simply 34.1% from past the 3-point arc, which is 178th within the nation.
What must also give the Santa Clara Broncos (26-8) confidence is their means to power turnovers. Broncos opponents commit 14.1 turnovers a recreation, which is thirty first within the nation. When Kentucky has dedicated a minimum of 14 turnovers a recreation this season, the Wildcats have gone 2-4.
Christian Hammond leads Santa Clara is scoring (15.8 factors per recreation), however the end result on this recreation will hinge on the Broncos’ means to get deflections and steals and switch them into factors.
1. Missouri over Miami
How many occasions earlier than tipoff will we hear that this recreation will probably be performed in St. Louis? Despite being seeded No. 10 to Miami‘s No. 7, the Missouri Tigers (20-12) will play a de facto residence recreation on Friday evening. That’s vital contemplating the Tigers had been 15-3 at residence this season and simply 5-9 both on the street or in neutral-site video games. But beware: the Hurricanes had been glorious on the street this season, going 8-2 in true street video games.
Missouri’s do-it-all star Mark Mitchell has been terrific all season however has been a monster down the stretch. With a 7-foot-1 wingspan, the body of a Marine and above-average explosiveness, Mitchell leads the staff in scoring (18.3 factors per recreation) whereas additionally averaging 5.3 rebounds and three.6 assists. In his final two video games, he has gone off, averaging 32.0 factors whereas taking pictures 58.5% from the sphere.
But regardless of his heroics, the Tigers enter the match on a three-game dropping streak.
On Friday, Mitchell and Missouri will catch a Miami staff that struggles taking pictures from the perimeter. The Hurricanes rank 293rd within the nation in 3-pointers per recreation (6.6). In their most up-to-date outing, a 22-point blowout loss to Virginia, they went simply 4-of-20 from behind the arc.
If the Tigers can restrict Miami’s factors within the paint, they’ve an opportunity to ship the group residence glad.
