Tesla (TSLA 2.07%) is predicted to ship crucial crash knowledge on potential full-self driving (FSD) site visitors violations to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) on or earlier than March 9.
The knowledge is definitely significant, because it’s a part of an NHTSA investigation. Moreover, on condition that Tesla has reported 14 incidents involving its robotaxis (utilizing unsupervised FSD) since their inception in June 2025, the corporate and its robotaxi rollout seem beneath vital strain. But simply how dangerous is it for Tesla?
Taking an excellent view
The NHTSA hasn’t revealed something on the prolonged March 9 deadline but, so buyers are counting on others’ experiences on the matter. It’s vital to not downplay the info as a result of no person, and above all, Tesla, needs site visitors violations from FSD. It’s additionally vital to not overplay the info.
Image supply: Getty Images.
First, there have been reportedly greater than 8,300 data left that Tesla wanted to evaluate. That isn’t crashes. In reality, the NHTSA recognized solely 58 incidents when it opened the investigation. It’s clear Tesla is struggling to ship the info rapidly. But I do not suppose this implies Tesla is delaying supply.
Second, it is vital to notice that this knowledge is totally different from the robotaxi incident knowledge, which is reported and dealt with individually. More on that in a second.
Third, the info spans the early days of FSD to more moderen days and is prone to primarily cowl older variations of FSD. That would possibly show to be a blessing in addition to a curse. For instance, it will not be excellent news if the up to date variations of FSD nonetheless have the identical points, or if fixing one subject creates one other. However, will probably be optimistic if the info demonstrates a linear enchancment.
Image supply: Tesla.
Robotaxi incident updates
Context can also be required when analyzing the robotaxi crash experiences. They are reported beneath the NHTSA’s Standing General Order on Crash Reporting, which additionally consists of knowledge from Waymo and others.
Tesla bears will argue that the robotaxi collision fee of about one in each 57,000 miles is far worse than Tesla’s personal estimate that the U.S. common driver has a main collision each 660,000 miles and a minor collision each 222,000 miles.
However, that is an apples-to-oranges comparability.
First, robotaxis aren’t clocking up miles on interstate highways; they’re driving in a comparatively restricted city space. So the 660,000 and 222,000 miles figures above are usually not a lot use for comparability, as a result of they embrace freeway miles.
Second, it may well pay to have a look at journeys quite than miles. Alphabet‘s Waymo assumes a mean journey size of simply 4.3 miles. That quantity is important as a result of, by Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s admission, on an earnings name, “all it takes is like 1 in 10,000 trips to go wrong and you’ve got an issue.” Using the 4.3-mile-per-trip estimate and an estimate of 800,000 robotaxi miles, some easy maths will get you to at least one collision in 13,289 journeys should you take into account that Tesla has reported 14 accidents with its Austin robotaxi service.
Third, I coated this issue previously, when Tesla had seven collisions over about 250,000 miles, so it seems it took 550,000 miles to achieve the next seven collisions, implying that robotaxi is enhancing security.
Fourth, Tesla publishes security knowledge on its web site, and it clearly reveals that a main crash involving supervised FSD happens each 5.3 million miles, in comparison with the common U.S. driver’s 660,000 miles. While this does not validate robotaxis in itself, it does display the protection advantage of FSD.
Tesla robotaxi incident knowledge
Data on the 14 robotaxi collisions are publicly out there from the NHTSA, and it’s summarized under. Understanding that Tesla is obliged to report minor collisions that common drivers are unlikely to report (for instance, hitting a tree at lower than 1 mile per hour), Tesla’s robotaxi collision knowledge is definitely fairly spectacular.
Incident Date | Crash With | Highest Injury Severity Alleged | Subject Vehicle Pre-Crash Speed (MPH) | Subject Vehicle Pre-Crash Movement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
December 2025 | Other mounted object | Property injury. No injured reported | 17 | Proceeding straight |
January 2026 | Bus | Property injury. No injured reported | 0 | Stopped |
January 2026 | Other mounted object | Property injury. No injured reported | 2 | Backing |
January 2026 | Pole / Tree | Property injury. No injured reported | 1 | Backing |
January 2026 | Heavy Truck | Property injury. No injured reported | 4 | Proceeding straight |
October 2025 | Other | Property injury. No injured reported | 18 | Proceeding straight |
July 2025 | SUV | Minor with Hospitalization | 2 | Making a proper flip |
November 2025 | Other | No injured reported | 0 | Stopped |
September 2025 | Animal | No injured reported | 27 | Stopped |
September 2025 | Cyclist | Property Damage. No Injured Reported | 0 | Stopped |
September 2025 | Passenger Car | Property injury. No injured reported | 6 | Proceeding straight |
September 2025 | Other Fixed Object | Property injury. No injured reported | 6 | Making a left flip |
July 2025 | SUV | Property injury. No injured reported | 0 | Stopped |
July 2025 | Other Fixed Object | Minor with out hospitalization | 8 | Other |
Data supply: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
In addition, many collisions occurred at very low or zero velocity, or the robotaxi reportedly got here to a cease earlier than the collision. As a reminder, the experiences don’t attribute fault.
What it means for Tesla buyers
The robotaxi knowledge is not good, and it is arduous to know what would possibly come out by March 9, the subsequent deadline. Still, the present knowledge is a lot higher than some headlines may need you consider.
