Demand for Downside Protection
Traders proceed to pay important premiums for draw back safety. Total premiums paid to buy places declined 24% month-over-month, however at $685M over the previous 30 days, they continue to be above 77% of month-to-month observations for the reason that begin of 2025.
Relative to identify quantity, put premiums reached an all-time excessive of roughly 4 foundation factors, roughly 3x the degrees seen in mid-2022 following the Terra/Luna stablecoin collapse and the Ethereum staking liquidity disaster. Meanwhile, premiums paid to buy calls fell 12% to roughly $562M, extending their current weak point and highlighting a shift towards defensive positioning. Despite declining volatility, buyers proceed allocating important capital towards hedging draw back threat.
Put Premiums Relative to BTC Spot Volume Reached 2x Previous Cycle All-Time High
Source: Glassnode, VanEck Research as of three/13/2026. Past efficiency just isn’t a assure of future outcomes. Not supposed as a suggestion to purchase or promote any securities named herein.
Options Skew and Volatility Premium
Not solely is demand for defense elevated, the price of that safety is rising. For the 30-day interval ending March 3, 2026, the put/name premiums paid ratio reached 2.0, the very best degree since summer time 2022. Implied volatility on places averaged ~66, roughly 16 factors above realized volatility of ~50 and roughly 17 factors above implied name volatility. This differential ranks within the 89th percentile since August 2019, indicating that places are considerably dearer than calls as buyers aggressively hedge draw back threat.
This degree of implied volatility skew has traditionally been related to constructive ahead BTC returns over each brief and longer time horizons. Over the previous 6 years, skew readings on this decile have corresponded to common BTC returns of +13% over the next 90 days and +133% over the following 360 days, in contrast with common BTC returns of -4.6% and +102%, respectively.
The desk beneath divides all historic choices skew readings into 10 equal buckets (deciles), from D1 (places most cost-effective relative to calls) to D10 (places costliest). The present studying falls in D9, the second-highest bucket. For every decile, the desk reveals the common bitcoin return over the next 90 and 360 days, together with how that return ranks towards all different deciles. D9 has produced the strongest common 90-day return (+13.2%, ranked #1) and the Third-strongest 360-day return (+133.2%), suggesting that excessive put demand at present ranges has traditionally preceded significant value recoveries.
Current Skew is within the D9 Decile
| D1 (Most Negative) | -30.50 | 10 | 176.30 | 2 |
| D2 | -11.00 | 7 | 221.90 | 1 |
| D3 | 9.30 | 2 | 41.90 | 10 |
| D4 | 6.50 | 3 | 60.00 | 7 |
| D5 | -4.00 | 6 | 45.90 | 9 |
| D6 | -21.80 | 9 | 87.80 | 6 |
| D7 | -12.00 | 8 | 105.00 | 4 |
| D8 | 5.20 | 4 | 90.90 | 5 |
| D9 | 13.20 | 1 | 133.20 | 3 |
| D10 (Most Positive) | -1.10 | 5 | 59.80 | 8 |
| Overall BTC Average | -4.6 | N/A | 102.2 | N/A |
Source: Glassnode as of three/13/2026. Past efficiency just isn’t a assure of future outcomes. Not supposed as a suggestion to purchase or promote any securities named herein.
In plain phrases: when choices markets have been this fearful previously, bitcoin has tended to get well. The present degree of defensiveness, whereas warranted by current value motion, has traditionally marked intervals nearer to market bottoms than tops.
Onchain Network Activity
Onchain exercise, which measures transactions settled immediately on the bitcoin blockchain, declined broadly month-over-month throughout most main community indicators.
Over the previous 30 days:
- Transfer quantity declined 31%
- Total day by day charges fell 27%
- Daily energetic addresses declined 5%
- Mean transaction charges dropped 40%
Total transaction rely was the one shiny spot, rising modestly through the interval.
Muted community exercise suggests restricted speculative participation immediately onchain, although this dynamic may additionally replicate the rising function of offchain buying and selling venues, derivatives markets, and ETPs. As Bitcoin turns into extra financialized, a rising share of buying and selling exercise happens with out producing onchain settlement transactions.
Traditional community exercise metrics could subsequently seize a shrinking share of complete market exercise in contrast with earlier cycles.
Long-Term Holder Distribution
Long-term holder promoting seems to be slowing, a probably constructive sign. Transfer quantity declined month-over-month throughout all ages cohort, indicating that older cash (which are likely to symbolize long-term buyers and early holders) are being spent much less incessantly. Declining switch exercise amongst these cohorts usually indicators lowered distribution strain from skilled market individuals.
This discount in long-term holder spending coincided with a decline in energetic long-term Bitcoin provide from 31% to 30%, suggesting {that a} barely smaller share of circulating BTC has transacted not too long ago.
Transfer Volume Fell for Each Age Band
Source: Glassnode as of three/13/2026. Past efficiency just isn’t a assure of future outcomes. Not supposed as a suggestion to purchase or promote any securities named herein.
Miner Economics
Economic strain on bitcoin miners intensified through the previous month. Total miner revenues declined 11%, whereas bitcoin mining equities fell roughly 7%, reflecting weaker profitability throughout the sector.
Despite this deterioration in economics, miners didn’t meaningfully enhance promoting strain. Miner outflows to exchanges rose solely 1% in BTC phrases, suggesting most operators are trying to protect their remaining reserves moderately than aggressively liquidating holdings.
Industry developments spotlight rising strategic shifts inside the mining sector. Bitdeer has offered its total BTC treasury, whereas Core Scientific, MARA, and others have signaled plans to monetize holdings as they pivot towards AI infrastructure companies. These strikes underscore the rising capital pressures going through miners because the economics of pure-play Bitcoin mining tighten.
Total miner balances (excluding wallets attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator) at present sit at roughly 684,000 BTC, down solely ~0.5% year-over-year. Over the identical interval, roughly 164,000 new BTC had been mined, suggesting miners successfully offered your entire newly issued provide.
Aggregate miner balances have been progressively declining since late 2023, indicating that the trade has steadily distributed cash to fund operations and capital expenditures. Should Bitcoin costs stay depressed, miners could also be compelled to speed up BTC gross sales to cowl recurring dollar-denominated prices, probably rising provide strain.
Total Miner BTC Holdings Have Been Falling Since Fall 2023
Source: Glassnode as of three/13/2026. Past efficiency just isn’t a assure of future outcomes. Not supposed as a suggestion to purchase or promote any securities named herein.
Trader Profit and Loss
Trailing 30-day realized revenue and loss, which tracks the online worth of cash offered above or beneath their buy value, presents a further lens into investor sentiment. Elevated realized losses usually coincide with capitulation throughout late-stage drawdowns, whereas declining realized losses could sign vendor exhaustion, a precondition for value stabilization. Monitoring this metric alongside the derivatives indicators mentioned above could assist establish inflection factors the place promoting strain fades and a ground begins to type.
Trailing 30 Day Realized Profit and Loss
Source: Glassnode as of three/13/2026. Past efficiency just isn’t a assure of future outcomes. Not supposed as a suggestion to purchase or promote any securities named herein.
Market Structure Conclusions
Taken collectively, present market dynamics recommend:
- Cooling speculative leverage in futures markets
- Elevated demand for draw back hedging in choices markets
- Subdued onchain exercise as buying and selling shifts towards ETPs and derivatives
- Declining distribution from long-term holders
- Moderate however manageable miner provide strain
While bitcoin costs have stabilized in current weeks, investor positioning throughout derivatives and onchain exercise stays cautious, suggesting markets should be consolidating following earlier volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the bitcoin put/name ratio point out about market sentiment?
The put/name open curiosity ratio measures the relative demand for draw back safety (places) versus bullish bets (calls). At 0.77, the present ratio sits within the 91st percentile of all observations since mid-2019, indicating that buyers are unusually defensive. Historically, excessive readings on this metric have preceded significant value recoveries, with common 90-day returns of +13% when the ratio reaches this decile.
Why is bitcoin onchain exercise declining at the same time as costs stabilize?
Onchain transaction quantity and charges have declined as a result of a rising share of bitcoin buying and selling happens by offchain venues, together with derivatives markets, centralized exchanges, and ETPs. As Bitcoin turns into extra financialized, conventional community metrics seize a shrinking portion of complete market exercise, making them much less dependable as standalone sentiment indicators in comparison with earlier market cycles.
Are bitcoin miners promoting their holdings?
Bitcoin miners have been progressively lowering their holdings since late 2023, with combination balances (excluding Satoshi) at present at roughly 684,000 BTC. While miners have successfully offered all newly issued provide over the previous yr (roughly 164,000 BTC), outflows to exchanges rose solely 1% month-over-month, suggesting most operators are managing reserves conservatively moderately than aggressively liquidating.
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