Jon Newcombe previews Saturday’s motion within the Six Nations, with Scotland internet hosting France earlier than England face a tough journey to Rome.
Rugby union betting ideas: Italy vs England
3pts Italy (+8) on the match handicap at evens (General)
1pt Italy/England half-time/full-time at 6/1 (Betfred)
2pts Elliot Daly anytime tryscorer at 3/1 (General)
2pts Italy extra penalty targets than tries at 3/1 (bet365)
1pt Red card within the match at 9/2 (bet365)
Italy vs England preview and best bets
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico
- Start time: 16:40 GMT
- TV: ITV
At the chance of performing like a captain at cricket who chases the ball in positioning his discipline, the shape and the temper of each camps are pointing us in the direction of a first-ever win for Italy over England on the thirty third try. But moderately than danger all of it on a well-known Azzurri win, as a result of, let’s be trustworthy, England absolutely can’t play as badly as they did in opposition to Ireland, ITALY ON THE HANDICAP and to be in entrance at half-time might be a very good compromise.
Overall, the Azzurri have scored 85% (33/39) of their factors within the first half of matches this yr and have but to attain a second-half strive.
England are the one Six Nations group that Italy have but to beat, and they’ve by no means been higher positioned to interrupt that duck. Mind you, I stated the identical earlier than Italy’s recreation with Ireland, and they didn’t get the win that they arguably deserved that day. I can’t shake off the sensation that one other heroic failure beckons, though a small side-bet on the house facet to edge it is perhaps worthwhile to spare any ‘what ifs’ moments.
Italy have defied the handicapper in all three of their video games up to now – the 18-15 win at residence to Scotland, the 20-13 defeat to Ireland in Dublin and even within the 33-8 loss in opposition to France in Lille, the margin of defeat fell beneath what was anticipated. If England do go to Rome and get the win that they so desperately want, it received’t be by many, possibly not as a lot because the +8 level begin you will get on Italy at round evens.
The Azzurri have scored greater than 20 factors in every of their final two video games in opposition to England, and they may want to take action once more to attain the long-awaited win. But on this championship, they’re averaging solely 13 factors per recreation and have mustered simply 4 tries, regardless of at instances attacking impressively.
If previous historical past is something to go by, penalty targets kicked might simply outnumber Italian tries. Finishing off alternatives contained in the opposition’s 22 has been Italy’s weak spot. To date, they enterprise into the ‘red-zone’ round eight to 9 instances per match and are solely averaging 1.4 factors for each foray into enemy territory. They’ll must no less than double that return to ship England packing.
Even with one in every of Europe’s best centre partnerships, Tomasso Menoncello and Juan Ignacio Brex, reunited within the Italian midfield, and developing in opposition to a brand new double act in Seb Atkinson and Tommy Freeman, England nonetheless in all probability have extra tries in them as a group. That would possibly sound unusual on condition that the Six Nations’ joint prime try-scorer, Henry Arundell, has been axed. But his substitute, Cadan Murley, will likely be determined to make a constructive impression after a good-and-bad, try-scoring debut in opposition to Ireland final yr.
Having the operating menace of ELLIOT DALY alongside him within the again three ought to open up some holes for the Quins man to use, as he appears so as to add to his tally of three tries in 4 Tests. But Daly’s document in opposition to Italy can’t be ignored within the anytime tryscorer market. The Saracens man has crossed for 4 tries in six outings in opposition to the Azzurri and is significantly better odds than Murley to seize one other.
For those that get pleasure from a little bit of a novelty wager, it may need gone unnoticed that referee Luc Ramos was born on Valentine’s Day. Fittingly, the Frenchman likes to brandish a RED CARD and it’s 9/2 that he reaches into his pocket and does so once more in Rome.
Rugby union betting ideas: Scotland vs France
3pts France (-10) on the match handicap at evens (General)
1pt France successful margin 8-14pts at 100/30 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)
1pt Scotland/France half-time/full-time at 11/2 (bet365, Betfred)
1pt Matthieu Jalibert anytime tryscorer/France win at 21/10 (William Hill)
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Scotland vs France preview and best bets
- Venue: Murrayfield
- Start time: 14:10 GMT
- TV: BBC One
France escaped with victory by the ‘Skin-ner’ of their enamel on their final go to to Murrayfield in 2024, with Les Bleus nearly holding onto a precarious four-point lead. It regarded for all of the world that Scotland had snatched victory from the jaws of defeat that day when lock Sam Skinner was pushed over within the final play of the sport. But referee Nic Berry dominated that the ball had been held up and the TMO, regardless of the protestations of the Murrayfield crowd, discovered no conclusive proof to overrule him. The recreation completed 20-16 to the guests.
On the face of it, what occurred two years in the past may need little or no bearing on Saturday’s conflict. But the Scottish rugby group likes to proper perceived wrongs and struggle injustice. They’re a group that feeds off emotional power greater than most, and you may wager that the Sam Skinner second will nonetheless linger within the psyche of the gamers who took to the Murrayfield that day. Thirteen of the 23 annoyed souls will likely be out for revenge right here.
If Scotland are to face any likelihood of stopping France from successful the Six Nations with a spherical to spare, they should put in an entire 80-minute efficiency. In the 2024 near-miss and final yr’s 35-16 defeat in Paris, solely three factors separated the groups on the break. However, Scotland failed to point out up within the second half of each matches, scoring simply three factors in every.
For this motive, backing SCOTLAND HALF-TIME/FRANCE FULL-TIME is sensible, particularly with France’s capability to run amok within the closing quarter. One caveat is that Scotland had been very poor within the first half of their away matches in opposition to Italy and Wales, trailing 15-7 and 17-5, respectively. But, of their solely residence recreation up to now, the 30-21 win over England, Scotland led 24-10 on the break.
As we’ve talked about earlier than, Scotland are maddeningly inconsistent on this respect. It was the identical within the autumn, they discovered themselves on the ropes in opposition to the All Blacks and trailed 17-0 on the finish of the primary half earlier than storming again into the competition. While the next week, they had been those dominating the scoreboard early, solely to blow a 14-0 half-time lead. Whether our religion in them to get off to a quick begin in opposition to France is misplaced, solely time will inform. But 114 first-half factors scored and 61 conceded of their final six residence video games in opposition to Tier 1 nations tells its personal story.
Scotland-France video games evoke recollections for me of free-flowing operating rugby, with photos of Gregor Townsend, the participant, not the coach, pulling the strings at 10 and enjoying in a liberated method extra related to the French. The present Scottish backline has a French really feel to it as nicely, with Finn Russell, the brand new Townsend, having performed beforehand at Racing 92, whereas his halfback accomplice Ben White and full-back Blair Kinghorn at present ply their commerce within the Top 14 with Toulon and Toulouse. Centre Huw Jones will likely be becoming a member of them over the channel in the summertime after signing for Montpellier.
Both backlines ooze high quality. But the fact is that video games between the 2 most entertaining groups within the Six Nations don’t all the time find yourself being a traditional. Only two of the earlier 26 matches have gone over 55 factors, whereas 13 have gone beneath 40. If you’re on the lookout for the center floor, the median complete since 2000 is simply 38 factors. With Murrayfield because of be bathed in March sunshine, it’s hoped that this yr’s conflict will spring to life on the scoreboard, and the current pattern is upward, with 4 of the final 5 conferences starting from an above-average 50 to 53 factors.
Jack Dempsey’s return to the again of Scotland’s pack a lot before anticipated from a bicep damage in opposition to England is a giant enhance for them, as Townsend’s freshened-up pack must go toe-to-toe with their French counterparts and the Australian-born participant was one in every of their standout performers till being pressured off in opposition to England.
But this can be a particular French group, one which will likely be all the higher for having MATTHIEU JALIBERT again at 10 and Thomas Ramos at 15, and Les Bleus ought to full their victory parade in fashion, successful by no less than two scores and overcoming the 10-POINT HANDICAP. We’ll have a smaller wager on a WINNING MARGIN OF 8-14 POINTS, given us a very good likelihood to land each bets if we’re proper.
Posted at 13:45 GMT on 06/03/26
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