Oil prices edge greater as US-Iran tensions simmer
Oil prices are on the rise as merchants react to rising issues that the US may launch navy motion in opposition to Iran.
Both the US and Iran embark on navy posturing regardless of attempting to de-escalate a standoff over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Some analysts are actually speculating that whereas the White House is unlikely to push for a regime change – which may lead to a months-long navy marketing campaign – Trump may order bombs to drop.
Joachim Klement, a analysis analyst at Panmure Liberum, stated there was a scarcity of political will to embark on a change in Iranian management, given Trump’s criticism of failed US interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Thus, the most definitely final result appears to be one other bombing marketing campaign much like what we noticed in 2025 with the purpose to additional harm Iran’s nuclear capabilities, its navy infrastructure or possibly even extract the Ayatollah from the nation.
As we’ve got seen within the case of Venezuela, extracting the chief of a rustic might not imply regime change within the case of this US administration.
In this base case of a brief navy intervention with out troops on the bottom or an outright invasion, we expect Iran won’t block the Straits of Hormuz, although oil prices will mirror a heightened danger premium for a while to return.
Key occasions
Closing put up
Time to wrap up…
Investors are betting on geopolitical turmoil and disruption to grease flows, amid rising hypothesis that Trump may order a strike on Iran amid an deadlock over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Oil prices rallied in a single day, with each Brent crude and WTI each rising 4%, earlier than persevering with to make good points in Thursday’s buying and selling session.
As of 3pm on Thursday, Brent was up 1.95% at $71.72 per barrel whereas WTI rose 2.12% to $66.67 per barrel.
Jitters are beginning to unfold over the potential fallout, with potential delivery delays and world provide chain disruption prone to impression inflation expectations and weigh on rate of interest choices by central banks.
All eyes are actually on any hints of escalation from the White House.
Gold might be poised for an additional spike if a Trump-ordered US strike on Iran ship buyers again to the protected haven asset.
Riz Malik, the director at Southend-on-Sea-based R3 Wealth, stated:
Global instability typically prompts a flight to protected property, resulting in a short-term sell-off of equities and a transfer into valuable metals like gold, which regularly see elevated demand.
A battle throughout Ramadan will amplify the political tensions with neighbouring international locations.
The spot gold worth is at the moment up 0.23% at $4,991.58.
Major US indexes are all within the pink as Wall Street opens for buying and selling:
Dow is down 0.25% a 49,537 factors
S&P 500 is down 0.35% at 6,857 factors
Nasdaq is down 0.49% at 22,641 factors
Peter Mandelson’s advisory agency Global Counsel to enter administration, FT experiences
The Global Counsel advisory agency based by disgraced former enterprise secretary and US ambassador Peter Mandelson will go into administration as quickly as Friday, the FT is reporting.
It is the most recent fallout from the Epstein information, with workers reportedly having been advised on Thursday that the “Peter Mandelson legacy” had led to the enterprise’s collapse.
Mandelson’s co-founder Benjamin Wegg-Prosser resigned as chief government final week, whereas high-profile purchasers together with Klarna, Phoenix Group, Barclays, KKR and Tesco jumped ship.
It comes after the Epstein information left Mandelson going through legal investigations, over allegations he leaked market-sensitive emails to Epstein, who died in jail in 2019 whereas awaiting trial over youngster sex-trafficking expenses.
Those emails appeared to indicate that Mandelson, when serving as the enterprise secretary beneath the then prime minister, Gordon Brown, gave Epstein advance warning of market-moving occasions.
That apparently included info on delicate fiscal and political developments together with Brown’s personal resignation, as nicely as a €500bn eurozone rescue deal. Both these occasions shifted the price of stocks and currencies, together with of the British pound.
Global Counsel has greater than 100 workers in Berlin, Brussels, London, Singapore, Washington, DC and Doha.
US jobless claims fall, boosting US greenback
Data launched by the US Labour Department present that American jobless claims fell to 206,000 within the week to 14 February, down from 229,000 the earlier week.
That resulted in a drop within the 4-week common, to 219,000 from 220,000/
However, continued claims rose to 1.869 million, within the week to 7 February, up from 1.852 million.
The US greenback has moved greater in response to the information, with the dollar now up 0.25% in opposition to a basket of currencies to $97.93.
Back to inventory markets, the place European indexes have prolonged their losses:
FTSE 100 is down 0.6%
Germany’s DAX is down 0.8%
France’s CAC 40 is down 0.79%
Spain’s IBEX is down 0.85%
Over within the US, futures are additionally pointing to a dip on Wall Street, which may imply the top of a 3 day successful streak for the S&P 500.
It comes as as heavyweight know-how shares like Apple, Nvidia and Meta slipped in pre-market and a conservative forecast by Walmart yesterday dampened sentiment.
Dow futures are down 0.26%
S&P 500 futures are down 0.24%,
Nasdaq futures are down 0.39%
Markets are placing a 70% likelihood on a possible US strike on Iran.
Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at capital.com, says these possibilities matter for vitality markets, particularly when the potential disruption entails a serious oil producer and a essential world transit route.
That may jam world provide chains, increase fears of a spike in inflation, and roil inventory markets.
Hathorn explains:
Oil markets are beginning to worth in greater danger as Iran stays a serious producer, and extra importantly, sits on the coronary heart of the Strait of Hormuz, by which roughly 20% of world oil provide transits.
Even restricted disruption or credible threats to delivery lanes may trigger an instantaneous provide shock.
The key difficulty will not be essentially whether or not Iran can maintain a long-term manufacturing shock, however whether or not it could be prepared to create short-term disruption in retaliation.
She notes that there’s been a largely muted response to the rising dangers, together with in inventory markets, the place buyers are been centered on financial coverage, progress and AI.
However, she warns “complacency”’ may go away buyers on the again foot:
This muted response means that buyers are both sceptical of imminent escalation or assured that any battle could be short-lived.
This complacency, nevertheless, raises the danger of a pointy repricing occasion.
If tensions transfer from rhetoric to motion, oil may spike quickly, bond yields may rise on inflation fears, and equities may expertise a volatility shock.
ONS to “pause” quarterly greenhouse emissions knowledge as half of ‘enchancment’ plan
The UK’s stats company is slashing its roster of knowledge releases as half of a broader enchancment plan.
It’s half of “ramping up our drive to put quality over quantity”, the Office for National Statistics says, with plans to streamline its operations and consolidate its publication in an effort to “restore confidence in our most critical statistics” together with GDP, prices, labour market and inhabitants statistics, labour power survey and the census.
The ONS has been attempting to deal with the standard of its figures for years, having confronted assaults over questionable jobs figures, which some consultants have stated leave policymakers “flying blind”.
Even Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey described the deterioration of the information high quality as a “substantial” drawback, with the central financial institution relying on the stats company’s labour power surveys when assessing whether or not to chop or increase rates of interest,
However, it will imply “pausing” its quarterly greenhouse fuel emission knowledge, slicing its involvement in well being surveys, scaling again wellbeing statistics, and ending evaluation on the night-time economic system, and existence and danger components.
ONS everlasting secretary Darren Tierney stated:
As we proceed the ONS’s restoration, we’re setting out our newest steps in our dedication to place high quality over amount and sharpen the main target of our portfolio – it will guarantee we will commit extra assets to our enchancment work.
Difficult choices to scale back the quantity of our publications are important to restoring the standard of our core statistics.
Price pressures nonetheless weighing on Britain’s producers, CBI says
Price pressures are persevering with to weigh on Britain’s manufacturing sector, with new knowledge displaying one other heavy fall in industrial orders.
The CBI stated the month-to-month order e book steadiness stood at -28% in February in contrast with -30% in January. That is nicely under the long-run common of -14%.
It comes as Britain’s producers, which account for about 9% of British financial output, have needed to grapple with a surge in vitality prices, the fallout from Trump’s commerce tariffs and excessive rates of interest.
The survey, which was based mostly on responses from 305 producers acquired between 26 January and 12 February, confirmed the expectations for common promoting worth hikes have been nonetheless elevate: sitting at +26% having risen to +29% in January.
That is above the long-running common of 8%, with January having been the best studying since February 2023 when the UK was affected by an vitality worth shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The CBI’s senior economist Cameron Martin stated producers are hoping for some authorities assist within the upcoming Spring assertion:
The downturn in manufacturing output eased in February, after a downbeat interval across the flip of the yr.
However, many corporations proceed to report prospects holding again amid low confidence and elevated value pressures.
The Spring Forecast is a chance for the federal government to construct momentum behind its progress mission and restore confidence.
Manufacturers need to see the federal government centered on accelerating Industrial Strategy supply, addressing abilities shortages, and reducing the fee of doing enterprise by bringing ahead vitality prices assist.
Tackling punitive vitality prices will strengthen competitiveness, ease value of residing pressures, and assist enhance demand throughout the economic system.
Brent crude prices hit highest stage since August
Geopolitical jitters have pushed Brent crude prices to their highest stage in six months.
It follows a robust session for crude, with each Brent and WTI prices having risen by greater than 4% on Wednesday, lastly pushing Brent again above $70 per barrel.
Jason Tuvey, deputy chief rising markets economist at Capital Economics stated there shall be wider implications for inflation and rates of interest if there have been to be any political adjustments in Iran as a outcome of any navy motion by the US:
Fresh strikes by the US on Iran would, coming within the wake of latest protests within the nation, increase the probabilities of some type of regime change which may ultimately pave the way in which for Iran’s doable reintegration into the worldwide economic system.
More instantly, strikes on Iran would danger inflicting oil prices to leap and threaten to spice up inflation in a lot of the world, decreasing the tempo or quantity of rate of interest cuts by main central banks.
Cecilia Nowell
Full story: The US navy is prepared for doable strikes on Iran as quickly as this weekend, a number of information retailers reported Wednesday citing unnamed sources.
However, the experiences stated, Donald Trump has but to make a remaining choice on whether or not to hold out an assault. Trump has repeatedly demanded Iran stop its nuclear program, and has warned he intends to make use of power if no deal is reached.
According to the New York Times, CBS News and CNN, the US navy has assembled ample air and naval assets within the Middle East to launch an assault within the coming days.
Reuters, citing an unnamed senior US official, supplied a barely completely different timeline, reporting that high US nationwide safety advisers have been advised throughout a gathering within the White House Situation Room on Wednesday that each one US navy forces deployed to the area must be in place by mid-March.
CBS additionally noted the timeline for a strike was prone to prolong past this weekend.
Iran is predicted to submit a written proposal on how you can resolve its standoff with the United States within the wake of talks with the US in Geneva on Tuesday, the official advised Reuters.
During a Wednesday press convention, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt didn’t reply a query about an actual deadline Trump would give Iran to realize a deal earlier than participating in navy motion.
“Iran would be very wise to make a deal with President Trump,” she stated, including that the Trump administration “totally obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities”, however that “diplomacy” was at all times the president’s “first option”.
Read extra:
Oil prices edge greater as US-Iran tensions simmer
Oil prices are on the rise as merchants react to rising issues that the US may launch navy motion in opposition to Iran.
Both the US and Iran embark on navy posturing regardless of attempting to de-escalate a standoff over Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Some analysts are actually speculating that whereas the White House is unlikely to push for a regime change – which may lead to a months-long navy marketing campaign – Trump may order bombs to drop.
Joachim Klement, a analysis analyst at Panmure Liberum, stated there was a scarcity of political will to embark on a change in Iranian management, given Trump’s criticism of failed US interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Thus, the most definitely final result appears to be one other bombing marketing campaign much like what we noticed in 2025 with the purpose to additional harm Iran’s nuclear capabilities, its navy infrastructure or possibly even extract the Ayatollah from the nation.
As we’ve got seen within the case of Venezuela, extracting the chief of a rustic might not imply regime change within the case of this US administration.
In this base case of a brief navy intervention with out troops on the bottom or an outright invasion, we expect Iran won’t block the Straits of Hormuz, although oil prices will mirror a heightened danger premium for a while to return.
Aarin Chiekrie, an fairness analyst, Hargreaves Lansdown notes that there’s a bit extra disappointment forward as Centrica’s buying and selling arm is prone to proceed to lag all year long.
On the face of it, British Gas proprietor Centrica’s headline numbers have been a tricky learn as vitality markets adjusted to extra normalised circumstances.
Lower commodity prices and decrease vitality worth volatility weighed on efficiency, inflicting complete income to fall sharply.
This was notably obvious within the group’s buying and selling arm, Centrica Energy, which buys and shops fuel when prices are low, then waits for greater prices to generate and promote energy again to the market, profiting on the distinction. But the division fell nicely brief of prior steerage, and efficiency is prone to stay subdued by 2026.
Performance in Centrica’s retail arm, which incorporates British Gas, was a bit higher as the group noticed buyer numbers and satisfaction scores proceed to development in the proper path. But warmer-than-normal climate contributed to underlying working income within the division slipping 7% to £424m
Chiekrie added that funding in renewables may additionally take a while to bear fruit:
Centrica’s additionally investing closely to construct out its renewable vitality infrastructure and prolong the life of its nuclear property.
Results aren’t going to return low-cost or shortly, although, with between £600m-800m per yr set to be invested within the transition out to 2028, which may put a pressure on money flows if returns aren’t as excessive or fast as deliberate.
Jillian Ambrose
Full story: British Gas proprietor pauses share buyback as income plummet
The proprietor of British Gas has paused its plan to purchase again shares from shareholders after the corporate’s full-year income slumped by nearly 39%.
Centrica reported adjusted earnings of £1.42bn for 2025, down from £2.3bn the yr earlier than, after a “challenging” yr for the enterprise as it undertakes a collection of multibillion-pound investments.
British Gas reported decrease income for the yr regardless of modest progress in its buyer base after milder climate meant households used much less fuel and electrical energy. The provider’s adjusted income fell to £309m for the yr, from £364m the yr earlier than, even as the quantity of family prospects grew by 1% to nearly 8 million accounts.
The firm’s income for vitality buying and selling have been additionally hit by geopolitical volatility, whereas outages within the UK’s nuclear reactor fleet additionally eroded earnings for the yr.
Read extra right here:
That sell-off in Centrica shares has made the corporate the worst performer on the FTSE 100, and by a longshot.
The subsequent greatest faller is Rio Tinto, which is down 3.7%, after web revenue fell 14% to $10bn for 2025, resulting from greater depreciation, taxes and financing prices.
Centrica shares tumble 9.5% after profts plunge, buyback paused
Shareholders aren’t taking information of the revenue plunge and share buyback pause frivolously, sending shares in Centrica down as a lot as 9.5% to 177.2 per share.
And we’re off!
European markets are open for buying and selling and most main indexes are within the pink:
FTSE 100 is down 0.3%
Germany’s DAX is down 0.33%
France’s CAC 40 is down 0.2%
Spain’s IBEX is down 0.16%
Introduction: British Gas proprietor pauses buyback as income plunge 39%
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling protection of enterprise, the monetary markets and the world economic system.
Tough information for British Gas proprietor Centrica this morning, which introduced it is placing share buyback plans ice after struggling a 39% drop in income for full-year 2025.
Centrica stated adjusted earnings earlier than curiosity, tax, depreciation and amortisation fell to £1.4bn for the yr, down from £2.3bn a yr earlier. However, that was forward of common analyst forecasts for £1.3bn.
Centrica CEO Chris O’Shea conceded it had been a “challenging” yr for the enterprise:
2025 has been a yr of actual momentum and we’ve got made daring investments as we proceed the elemental transformation of Centrica.
The surroundings has been difficult, and efficiency has assorted throughout the enterprise.
However, we’ve got remained disciplined, delivering robust operational efficiency and reaching buyer progress throughout all our Retail companies concurrently for the primary time in over a decade.
He tried to guarantee buyers that placing the share buyback programme on pause could be higher for shareholders within the long-run:
With main tasks like Sizewell C, Grain LNG and our Meter Asset Provider laying the groundwork for extra steady and predictable earnings, our long-term alternatives have by no means been higher.
Pausing the buyback allows us to prioritise funding that creates lasting worth for shareholders, whereas persevering with to ship the dependable, inexpensive vitality that households and companies have to energy financial progress by the transition.
Meanwhile, ongoing issues over AI’s impression on the job market has pushed youthful generations to blue collar-work, in accordance with new knowledge from Employment Hero.
PA is reporting on the figures, which present youthful employees are driving jobs progress inside the building and commerce business, amid rising youth unemployment and the looming risk of AI.
The HR platform’s report additionally confirmed that hiring of Gen Z employees considerably outpaced different generations final month.
Employment for the age group – incorporating these born between 1997 and 2012 – elevated by 16.8% in January, in contrast with the identical month final yr.
The Agenda
11am GMT: CBI Industrial Trends Orders
1.30pm GMT: US International Trade in Goods and Services, December and Annual 2025
