Jiri Lehecka v Taylor Fritz (1600 GMT)
A value of 9/5 about Lehecka on this two-horse race simply caught the attention as being somewhat out.
The Czech is unbroken up to now in Miami, beating each Moise Kouame and Ethan Quinn in straight units.
Yes, the extent actually rises right here and Fritz hasn’t achieved loads incorrect up to now this week both – he’s not misplaced his serve, though he did lose a set towards Botic van de Zandschulp on a tie-break.
Breakers might be key to this contest – the pair performed three in Canada final summer season. Fritz edged house that day to assert his fourth win in four conferences over Lehecka however the Czech has acquired on the board since, successful the pair’s Davis Cup rubber which notably was performed in Florida, simply up the coast at Delray Beach.
With Lehecka possessing the ability to reside with Fritz in any lengthy rallies that evolve, I believe there’s each likelihood that this match is settled by a handful of key factors.
Fritz has already misplaced a number of tight matches this season, most notably the Dallas remaining from match-point up, and I simply really feel Lehecka is overpriced on this one.
Ugo Humbert v Francisco Cerundolo (not earlier than 2300 GMT)
Cerundolo delivered us a winner when he comfortably lined the handicap towards Daniil Medvedev on Monday – in reality he went somewhat too far by successful the match and killing my outright wager on the Russian!
Yet such victory solely served to spotlight his propensity for the Miami Open – that is the fourth time in 5 years he’s reached the final 16 and he’s progressed to the quarter-finals on every event.
I like his possibilities right here too and am shocked to see the Argentine because the slight underdog.
Cerundolo gained the one earlier assembly between the pair, though that did come on clay on the Paris Olympics in 2024.
I nonetheless really feel too many see him as a claycourter however, as his document right here reveals, he’s greater than succesful on a hardcourt. This yr, he’s additionally crushed Andrey Rublev on this floor.
Humbert’s finest tennis is almost at all times performed indoors and whereas the pretty speedy situations are working for his aggressive, attacking recreation this week, Cerundolo can break it down.
On hardcourts up to now this season, Cerundolo is holding 77% of the time and breaking 30%, which produced a mixed determine of 107. Humbert’s 88-16 equal figures have him again on 104 – and we’ve already performed a big chunk of matches indoors, which ought to bolster his numbers (sadly I don’t have the outside/indoor breakdowns).
All issues thought of, Cerundolo seems to be value a wager at even cash.
Posted at 09:45 GMT on 24/03/26
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