What are you most trying ahead to, on or off the court docket?
The annual bevy of trivia that accompanies an NCAA Tournament. Have you heard there are two Miamis? Did you recognize Nebraska have by no means gained a men’s match recreation? Are you conscious that the Queens Royals have a “spirit animal” known as Buddy the Street Dog? Even extra importantly, I’m trying ahead to watching sufficient basketball over the subsequent three weeks to crack 68/68 on the Sporcle quiz of this 12 months’s mascots. EB
That first Thursday and Friday stay two of the nice days on the American sports activities calendar: noon-to-midnight hoops, 4 video games on display at a time, buzzer-beaters detonating out of nowhere and a campus or small school city you’ve by no means heard of all of a sudden changing into the middle of the basketball universe. (And, to nobody’s shock, billions in lost productivity.) The NCAA Tournament nonetheless trades in the romance that something, and anybody, can take over March. BAG
Which freshman star will enhance their inventory the most? This 12 months’s first-year class is loaded with expertise and lots of NBA mock drafts undertaking the prime seven picks to be present freshmen. We know a deep run can elevate a participant’s draft place, whereas an early exit can damage it. I’ll be watching intently to see which of the following freshmen will assist themselves the most: AJ Dybantsa (BYU), Cameron Boozer (Duke), Darryn Peterson (Kansas), Kingston Flemings (Houston), Darius Acuff Jr (Arkansas) and Keaton Wagler (Illinois). NL
Frankly, with the sports activities calendar so crowded all the time, it feels nice to have the ability to bask in school basketball as soon as once more. March Madness being good is one among the few issues we will all agree on, so let’s take pleasure in its time at middle stage. The thrills, the disappointments, the new stars and the affect it will have on the NBA draft. All of it. Of course, like most, what I can’t await most is to fall in love with a college I’d by no means heard of earlier than. JU
Dark horse group to look at
Vanderbilt have 10 wins over NCAA Tournament groups, and three got here in the 9 days earlier than Selection Sunday. That’s no small feat in the 10-bid Southeastern Conference. Their run to the SEC Tournament closing included wins over Tennessee, now a No 6 seed, and a 17-point takedown of top-seeded Florida. EB
VCU below first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr might make some noise in the South Region. The Eleventh-seeded Rams enter the match in a wealthy vein of type, having gained 16 of their final 17 video games. Their high-volume three-point taking pictures is an equalizer that may flip video games rapidly and will flip the tables on a sixth-seeded UNC group who have misplaced dynamic freshman Caleb Wilson for the season. And lest we overlook, the Rams have the Cinderella gene in their DNA. Has it actually been 15 years since they went from the First Four to the Final Four? BAG
St John’s. The Red Storm are led by one among basketball’s all-time nice coaches in Rick Pitino. The 73-year-old Long Island native has his group enjoying to his persona as soon as once more. They’re using a six-game win streak and coming off a Big East Tournament championship with Saturday’s decisive win over rivals UConn. The committee didn’t do them any favors with a No 5 seed and a matchup 3,000 miles from residence, however count on Pitino and the Johnnies to remain sizzling. NL
How about No 7 seed Saint Mary’s? It looks like yearly the Catholic faculty coached by the nice Randy Bennett is upsetting one powerhouse or one other. This 12 months the Gaels beat then-No 9 Gonzaga by double digits in February. Will they spring a couple of extra upsets in the match? I believe so! First over Texas A&M after which … possibly Houston? If it’s a deeper cut you’re on the lookout for, strive Penn from the spunky Ivy League, led by former Duke five-star recruit TJ Power. JU
The most susceptible of the prime seeds is …
On paper, Michigan are most likely the weakest of the 4 No 1 seeds, however I don’t assume anybody ought to envy Duke for the draw they received in the East Region. Dan Hurley’s UConn, Tom Izzo’s Michigan State, Rick Pitino’s St John’s and Bill Self’s Kansas – all coaches who have gained nationwide titles – might await the Blue Devils come the second weekend. EB
Michigan are elite on each ends and brutally environment friendly inside, however could also be the weakest of the No 1s after key rotation piece LJ Cason went down to a season-ending torn ACL simply weeks earlier than the match. Turnovers stay the one lingering flaw, which is sufficient to invite bother towards the unsuitable matchup at the unsuitable time in a knockout format. BAG
Duke. The Blue Devils are coming off an ACC title and a dominant 32–2 season, so why the concern? Injuries. They’ve saved successful, however March is about elite level guard play – and Duke will be with out starter Caleb Foster. Can they get via a possible Sweet 16 matchup towards a Mount Rushmore coach like Bill Self or Rick Pitino? Time will inform, nevertheless it gained’t be straightforward. NL
Michigan, when you’re on the lookout for a No 1 to go down. Truthfully, it’s exhausting to discover a notably susceptible prime seed, however I’ll go along with the Wolverines for the enjoyable of it right here. If you need to see a No 2 seed fall, take a look at Purdue or Iowa State. They have the upset stink throughout them, doubtlessly even in the first spherical. JU
One daring prediction
Kansas star Darryn Peterson will play greater than 35 minutes in not less than two video games. The potential No 1 choose in the NBA draft has been one among this season’s most … intriguing? … storylines. His issues with cramping and inconsistency meant he performed 30 or extra minutes in simply 11 of Kansas’ 33 video games. When he’s on the court docket, he’s one among the most entertaining offensive gamers in latest reminiscence. If he can keep on it, he might carry the Jayhawks on a deep match run. EB
A No 15 or No 16 seed will win a recreation. It took greater than three a long time for a 16 to lastly beat a 1, nevertheless it’s occurred twice semi-recently with UMBC in 2018 and Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023. Meanwhile No 15 seeds have surged, successful 12 NCAA Tournament video games since 2012 after simply 4 in all for greater than a quarter-century of the 64-team period. As the switch portal redistributes skilled gamers and trendy offenses prioritize spacing and taking pictures, the structural benefits that when protected prime seeds in one-off video games on impartial courts are steadily eroding. (Of this 12 months’s crop, Furman over UConn has the greatest shot.) BAG
For the first time in 17 years, there will not be an 11-over-6 upset. I like the large boys – Louisville, UNC, Tennessee and BYU – to all deal with enterprise and advance to the second spherical. No one loves an upset greater than I do, however the expertise hole in these matchups is simply an excessive amount of to beat. Go chalk! NL
A play-in group will make the Sweet 16. Maybe it will be Miami (Ohio), who enter their First Four play-in recreation on Wednesday night time with a whopping 31-1 report after successful their first 31 video games in a row. Despite that mark, the faculty has an enormous chip on its shoulder. Usually groups that just about run the desk don’t should show themselves to make the precise spherical of 64. Wouldn’t or not it’s good if an HBCU like Howard superior, too? Or possibly a tiny outfit like Lehigh? JU
Has NIL made March Madness higher or worse?
You can argue that it’s made school basketball in normal higher – gamers should receives a commission – nevertheless it’s honest to surprise if we’ll get much less of the Cinderella magic that makes March so particular when the divide between the prime and center tiers is starker than ever. Last 12 months introduced simply 4 “major upsets” – video games the place the winner was not less than 5 seeds decrease than the loser – after a mean of 11.25 throughout the 4 earlier tournaments. The round-of-64 video games weren’t particularly close: simply 4 of the 32 have been determined by 5 or fewer factors. Here’s hoping this 12 months is completely different. EB
NIL hasn’t damaged March Madness, nevertheless it’s completely professionalized it. Rosters are assembled like free company and cash shapes the subject greater than ever. The end result: fewer prolonged Cinderella runs and a match dominated by resource-rich packages. Upsets nonetheless occur, however they’re tougher to maintain deep into March. BAG
Most would agree NIL isn’t getting used as initially supposed. It was alleged to let gamers revenue off their identify, picture, and likeness, capitalizing on their success. Instead, it’s became assured cash and, greater than something, a recruiting instrument. The system feels damaged and sure isn’t sustainable. NL
I don’t actually know and, with all due respect to the query, I don’t actually care. I do know we’re in the wild west concerning NIL and I additionally know gamers needs to be paid (over the desk). If something, NIL would possibly get extra gamers to remain in faculty longer, which is sweet for them and good for basketball followers. College basketball was at its top in the Eighties and Nineties as a result of folks might observe a participant like Michael Jordan or Patrick Ewing over three or 4 years. That doesn’t occur a lot now however possibly it will extra any longer. JU
Men’s Final Four
Duke, Illinois, Arizona, Iowa State. EB
Michigan State, Houston, Arizona, Michigan. BAG
St John’s, Houston, Arizona, Michigan. NL
Duke, Houston, Virginia, Arkansas. JU
The champion will be …
Arizona. Success in March is all about discovering the proper stability: offensive effectivity and defensive prowess, proficient youth with veteran expertise, large phases with calm collectedness. The Wildcats have that. In a 12 months of star freshmen, from Kansas’ Peterson and Duke’s Boozer to BYU’s Dybantsa and Arkansas’ Acuff Jr, Brayden Burries has flown below the radar. Arizona are dominant sufficient in the paint – fourth in rebounds per recreation and second in two-pointers per recreation – to make up for his or her lack of three-point taking pictures. (Their 16.3 makes an attempt/recreation ranks 354th out of all 361 Division I groups.) The West appears to be the weakest of the 4 areas, and this feels prefer it could possibly be the Wildcats’ 12 months. EB
Arizona seem like the most full group in the subject. The Wildcats mix elite freshman expertise with skilled management in the backcourt, giving them the stability that normally issues deep in March. They can rating effectively, defend a number of positions and modify their tempo relying on the opponent. Just as importantly, they’ve already navigated a demanding Big 12 convention schedule and gained tight video games late. In a match the place many contenders have quite pronounced and identifiable flaws, the Wildcats’ depth and flexibility stand out. If they will keep disciplined defensively and keep away from foul bother, Arizona have the items to outlive six video games and snip down the nets in Indy. BAG
Arizona. The Wildcats haven’t been to a Final Four since 2001, once they misplaced to Duke in a basic title recreation. They’re due. Head coach Tommy Lloyd has overachieved in the common season in every of his 5 years in Tucson and this seems like the breakthrough postseason run. The Wildcats have nice positional dimension, 5 guys averaging double figures and put up 86 factors per recreation. They take what the protection provides them and might beat you inside or on the perimeter. Fresh off a Big 12 Tournament championship, search for them to remain sizzling and cut down the nets in Indianapolis. NL
Duke. They came up just short last year with star NBA prospects Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel. This 12 months, the Blue Devils will take residence the trophy with one other set of future professionals in twins Cameron and Cayden Boozer, the sons of an NBA All-Star and Olympic champion. If you don’t know by now Cameron is Him, as the children say. He can do all of it: deal with, rebound and shoot. But if one thing goes south for him, his brother is true there to choose him up, similar to an excellent twin ought to. Bet on Duke. I’m positive-ish! JU
