Labour is on monitor for its worst native election efficiency, knowledge analysed by the Guardian exhibits, in a blow that will pile additional strain on Keir Starmer’s management.
Barring a drastic change in fortunes, Labour’s vote-share could fall to historic lows throughout elections for councils in England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland on 7 May, with huge positive factors for Reform, the Greens and nationalist events, in accordance with latest polling.
The collapse in help is especially existential in the race for the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, which Labour has dominated since its creation in 1999.
Polling exhibits Labour’s vote share falling by greater than half in Wales, sufficient to push the get together into third place, with Reform and Plaid Cymru vying for first.
Labour’s long-term decline in Scotland is predicted to proceed, with the Scottish National get together prone to stay in energy in Holyrood and Reform headed for second place.
In England, Labour faces a number of threats – from Reform, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats and independents – throughout 136 council races, together with in its strongholds in London and the north.
While dependable polling throughout the council races is tough to come back by, the latest fall in Labour’s nationwide ballot ranking, alongside rises for different events, is main consultants to count on “unprecedented losses”.
Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, has estimated Labour will lose 1,900 councillors on 7 May – 74% of the variety of seats the get together at the moment holds that are up for re-election.
Such a consequence could be the worst native election efficiency for any prime minister since comparable knowledge started.
Guardian graphic. Source: Historic figures via Election Centre, House of Commons Library and BBC. 2026 estimate via Stephen Fisher, based on change in party polling since previous local elections. Councillor losses are based on change since last elections.
Fisher estimates Reform will achieve 2,260 councillors – which might triple the get together’s native illustration in England in a single day – whereas the Greens will achieve 450 and the Liberal Democrats 200.
The Conservatives are additionally set for a drubbing, with a web lack of 1,010 councillors underneath Fisher’s estimates, in a transparent signal of voter dissatisfaction with Britain’s two most important events.
“Reform gains at last year’s local elections amounted to a record-breaking 41% of the seats up for election,” Fisher mentioned.
“Now they have extended their polling lead, Reform should do even better this year if they can maintain the same conversion rate for opinion poll ratings into council seat gains.
“If they can, then the consequences are enormous losses for the Conservatives and unprecedented losses for Labour.”
A disaster of this scale for Labour could reignite the prospect of a management problem towards Starmer, who has continued to come back underneath strain over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador.
In latest weeks a number of Labour ministers have played down the risk of Starmer being eliminated due to any poor efficiency in the native elections, citing the worldwide disaster over the Iran warfare.
But the Guardian’s revelation last week that Mandelson failed secured vetting for the US function has put Starmer’s future again in focus, amid calls for his resignation by opposition events. Record-breaking electoral losses will solely add to the considerations inside Labour.
Yet, whereas there are clear indicators 7 May could be an electoral disaster for Labour, it’s much less clear what it will in the end imply for Starmer and his potential to stay in Downing Street.
On the one hand, the prime minister’s odds of survival have improved markedly since the US-Israeli warfare in Iran.
Starmer’s refusal to contain the UK immediately in the warfare could clarify why the stage of public disapproval along with his authorities fell all through March.
Guardian graphic. Source: YouGov
On the different hand, that motion has already begun to reverse, and the polling doesn’t but replicate the full impression of the newest revelations over Mandelson.
Still, it raises the risk that the prime minister has already reached peak unpopularity.
Labour figures must ask themselves: will the native elections be the worst it will get underneath Starmer, or an indication of extra disasters to come back?
