Donald Trump believes financial ache will do what weeks of air strikes couldn’t: break Tehran’s will and drive it to concede. But some consultants say this is likely to be misreading Iran’s threshold for ache.
The blockade started at 10 a.m. ET yesterday, after weekend peace talks in Pakistan ended with out a breakthrough. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has vowed to retaliate, and Iranian officials have warned of the ripple results on the worldwide economic system, together with on the value of the American shopper.
“Iran has several options for offsetting the economic effects of the US blockade, but their overall impact is uncertain,” Hasan Alhasan, a senior fellow for the Middle East Policy on the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Bahrain, instructed CNN, including that Tehran “could seek to ramp up oil and gas exports through alternative routes that bypass the Strait of Hormuz.”
This might embody gasoline exports through pipelines to Iraq, Turkey and Armenia, Alhasan mentioned, or oil exports through its Neka oil terminal in the Caspian Sea.
In addition, Iran might select a army route, by launching assaults on US naval vessels or persuading the Houthis in Yemen to aim a blockade of the Bab El Mandeb Strait, Alhasan instructed CNN.
In all circumstances, by blocking Iranian ports, the US is opening a brand new chapter in this battle, testing Iran’s ache threshold in completely different instructions.
