There is a sure sort of Grand National runner that the market costs at 33/1 and the general public largely ignores, after which turns up on the day and outruns his odds. Lecky Watson could or might not be that horse.
His current type provides you little or no purpose to assume he will probably be, and there’s no level dressing that up.
But he’s educated by Willie Mullins, he received a Grade 1 at Cheltenham lower than a yr in the past at 20/1, and the Grand National has an extended historical past of constructing folks really feel silly for writing off a horse too shortly.
So, earlier than you skip straight previous him, it’s price spending a couple of minutes to know what you might be really getting to your 33/1.
What He Has Done
Lecky Watson is an eight-yr-outdated owned by the Slaneyville Syndicate, and his profession tells the story of a horse that has proven real potential on his day with out ever fairly nailing it constantly.
His early profession confirmed regular development by hurdles and novice chases, nevertheless it was on the 2025 Cheltenham Festival that he made folks sit up and take discover.
At the 2025 Cheltenham Festival, despatched off at 20/1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, he produced a shock win within the Grade 1 contest, coming house in entrance of Stellar Story and Better Days Ahead after the percentages-on favorite Ballyburn disenchanted.
Winning a Grade 1 on the Cheltenham Festival at 20/1 is just not one thing any horse does accidentally.
The type could have been muddied by the favorite’s beneath-par effort, however the naked truth stays that Lecky Watson beat a top quality discipline on the largest leaping assembly of the yr.
He adopted that up with a fall at Punchestown in April, and this season has not gone to plan. He was pulled up at Leopardstown in February and completed eighth of 9 at Fairyhouse a couple of weeks later.
Mullins himself has acknowledged the horse has not fired this yr, telling Racing TV: “He’s a Grade One winner and hasn’t sparked this year. His jumping can be untidy but I think he’s got a great weight for an unexposed Grade One winner and you could not rule him out.”
That is just not a rousing endorsement, however it’s an sincere one, and coming from a coach who has received the final two Grand Nationals, it carries extra weight than the identical phrases would from virtually anybody else.
Does He Fit The Winner’s Profile?
Age: Eight years outdated, which sits proper within the candy spot of 8-10 that has produced nearly all of current National winners. Ticks the field.
Weight: Carrying 11st 2lb, which falls comfortably inside the 10st 10lb to 11st 6lb vary that has produced 18 of the final 20 winners. One of his strongest credentials on paper. Ticks the field.
Chase wins: Three wins from eight begins over fences. The typical winner profile requires 4-6 chase wins, so he falls barely brief on this measure.
Recent type: Pulled up final trip at Leopardstown, and eighth the run earlier than that.
The tendencies present that 21 of the final 33 winners completed within the high 4 of their most up-to-date race. This is essentially the most important concern with Lecky Watson, and there’s no level hiding from it.
National expertise: None, which really aligns with the historic knowledge. Only 7 of the final 33 Grand National winners had beforehand run within the race!
Odds: At 33/1 he sits nicely exterior the 8/1-20/1 bracket that produces 60% of winners. Longer-priced winners do occur, however they’re the exception.
The Honest Verdict
Lecky Watson is 33/1 for very comprehensible causes. His current type has been poor, his leaping has been described as untidy even by his personal coach, and the Grand National is just not a race that tends to forgive horses who arrive off form.
On the stats, he fails the current type take a look at, and his chase wins fall wanting the everyday winner profile.
What retains him from being dismissed totally is the mix of a weight that the handicapper has set pretty, a Cheltenham Grade 1 on his document that exhibits he’s able to higher, and a coach who has the uncommon potential to supply a horse for a selected day when the whole lot else has instructed the season has handed him by.
At 33/1, the each-way return on even a positioned end is important. The Grand National is the one race within the calendar the place 33/1 photographs do sometimes land within the first 4 (some bookmaker are paying out to fifth and sixth place), and the place a horse that ticks a few of the right boxes, the proper age, a good weight, and an Irish handler who dominates the game, can by no means be utterly written off.
If you want an extended-odds flutter on the day, there are worse methods to spend a small stake.