US President Donald Trump stated in an interview with the Financial Times on Sunday that he may “take the oil in Iran” and probably seize its main gasoline hub of Kharg Island.
When requested about Iranian defence on the island he stated: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”
Trump in contrast the potential transfer to Venezuela the place the US plans to manage the oil trade “indefinitely” after the seizure in January of then-President Nicolás Maduro.
Also over the weekend, Iran’s parliament speaker warned that his nation’s forces have been “waiting for American soldiers” as an additional 3,500 US troops arrived within the Middle East.
Global power markets have been massively risky after Tehran retaliated to US and Israeli strikes by threatening to assault ships that attempt to cross the Strait of Hormuz.
Lars Jensen, a delivery knowledgeable and former director at Maersk, warned that, even when the Strait of Hormuz “magically were to open tomorrow”, there have been nonetheless additional value rises to come back.
“We need to keep in mind that a lot of the oil that was loaded in the Persian gulf prior to this crisis is only now arriving in refineries,” he advised the BBC.
Overall, Jensen stated the affect of the US-Israeli conflict on Iran might be “substantially larger” than the oil disaster of the Seventies, which sparked financial chaos.
And Jensen, who now runs the delivery consultancy Vespucci Maritime, additionally warned of the affect of the conflict on meals costs.
He added: “You’ve got 20 to 30% of the seaborne fertiliser in the world originating from the Gulf.
“This will imply quickly escalating meals costs, particularly in poorer international locations.”
Judith McKenzie, a partner at investment firm Downing, said the full impact of the war is yet to make its way through the fuel supply chain to hit consumers.
“Oil shocks do not present up immediately,” she told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
“If we are able to get some decision within the Gulf this week then, though it is going to take just a little little bit of time to unwind and we are going to see inflation, it’s fixable.”
Around a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply usually passes through the narrow waterway but this has largely come to a standstill, pushing up prices.
Energy markets expert Sean Foley from Macquarie University said he expected oil prices to rise further unless the conflict eases.
The Houthi strikes have raised concerns that the armed group could stop energy shipments passing through Bab al-Mandeb strait near Yemen, Foley said.
A blockade of the waterway could hit a further 10% of world’s oil supply, “placing important pressure on international provide chains”, Foley said.
Andrew Lipow from consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates said he expected the price of Brent to reach $130 a barrel in the coming weeks as threats against the global energy supply continue.
“My biggest worry is that you’ve a normal financial slowdown around the globe… as a result of shoppers merely run out of cash as they’re spending extra on power and, as well as, meals,” he said.
The price of Brent was at around $72 a barrel on 27 February, the day before the US and Israel struck Iran.
On 18 March, the benchmark oil contract hit $119.50, the very best stage since June 2022.
