Pamela Maldonado
Multiple Authors
TPC San Antonio is a ballstriking check that exposes weak iron play, forcing gamers to grind round the greens.
Thursday’s near-constant storms put the common “fast start” angle doubtful. Friday stays messy with wind and lingering rain, whereas Saturday seems like a possible disruption with heavy storms and delays.
Sunday flips utterly; it is forecast to be cooler, drier and playable. That means this event seemingly is not determined early, however constructed for regular gamers who can survive the first three days and take benefit when circumstances lastly ease.
Keep the card tight this week. There’s no edge in forcing wagers proper earlier than Masters week.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
(with ties) and topic to change.
Best bets
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Ludvig Åberg: Top 20 (-125)
Full odds:
Top 10 +165
Top 5 +315
To win +1500
The query this week is whether or not TPC San Antonio stays a ballstriking contest or turns into a brief sport grind, as a result of that distinction is all the pieces for Aberg.
The case for him is straightforward. He posted back-to-back elite ballstriking weeks, leading to a T3 at Bay Hill and a T5 at the Players. His strokes gained on method are prime 10 in the subject, gaining off the tee and along with his irons concurrently, the actual combo this course rewards most.
TPC is constructed to expose common iron gamers. The fairways run 25-30 yards huge, greens are closely bunkers, and the undulation makes them play smaller than their precise measurement. Miss in the mistaken spot and you are scrambling from deep sand or native tough.
Aberg’s ballstriking means he is hardly ever in both dialog.
And when he does miss, the quick sport knowledge backs him up, twelfth in sand saves might be helpful given how punishing the Valero greenside bunkers are plus prime 25 round the inexperienced. The one real softness is total scrambling, however along with his irons this sharp, he is creating shorter, cleaner restoration conditions to start with.
Jordan Spieth: Top 20 (-110)
Full odds:
Top 10 +190
Top 5 +375
To win +1850
Having Spieth in your card is like having a number of gamers as a result of he may be so erratic, however that cuts each methods. This week, the circumstances are establishing for the model of Spieth you really need.
Three straight top-20s at this course, together with a win in 2021. His course historical past right here is not a coincidence. He’s prime 5 on method, prime 30 round the inexperienced, and prime 10 from tee-to-green, a profile that matches a course that calls for iron precision and quick sport creativity in equal measure. When he posted a T10 in 2024, Spieth gained almost 10 strokes in ballstriking. In 2025, his placing carried him. In different phrases, he finds methods to contend.
The climate forecast really elevates him from good play to increased conviction due to rain and suppressed scoring in the early rounds. That’s a survival and creativeness week, grinding by way of harder circumstances, saving pars from spots different flip into bogeys, and staying affected person whereas the subject bleeds photographs.
When circumstances get uncomfortable and chaos begins separating the subject, that is whenever you need to again Spieth.
Players to contemplate for Daily Fantasy
Sudarshan Yellamaraju, $8,100: The knowledge says he belongs in the dialog, prime six off the tee, on method, and whole, plus back-to-back top-six finishes at the Players and Houston, posting spectacular iron stats in all however one event he is performed this 12 months. The kind is actual.
The danger is equally actual. Sand saves are 107th on a course the place bunkers are positioned to stress you out, and he is by no means performed this course. The $8,100 worth is for a ballstriking profile that matches the course on paper, towards a subject that may have gamers who really know the way it performs. The ceiling is there however the ground is genuinely unknown.
DFS participant to fade
Denny McCarthy, $8,200: The course historical past is actual, and it’s going to get him consideration. McCarthy has a second-place end in 2025 together with two different prime 20s. The horses for programs narrative can be loud with this one and at $8,200, it seems like worth. It is not.
His 2026 kind is an issue that course historical past cannot paper over; two cuts in his final 4 begins, erratic off the tee, has gained in again to again rounds along with his irons however is that constant sufficient? Before that, he misplaced on method on 4 straight. Perhaps he is discovered one thing however he is exterior of the prime 50 in scrambling and exterior the prime 100 in sand saves. If his irons are off, he might be in actual hassle all through the week. The outdated model of McCarthy is attractive however his 2026 model is more seemingly to present up.
