- FTSE 100 rises 97 factors to 10,736
- Brent crude tops $100/bbl, earlier than easing
- Retail gross sales rise 1% in June
- UK client confidence in July at highest since January
5.30pm: Pressure off… for now
The FTSE 100 completed the day up 97 factors at 10,736 as a pullback in oil costs took the stress off equities.
“This is likely to be a temporary respite for stocks generally, since the US and Iran are no closer to beginning any kind of ceasefire talk,” IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp stated.
He added that stress on equities is probably going to resume subsequent week, with an action-packed week set to maintain traders busy.
“While the corporate calendar is full to the brim next week, it is not likely to provide much relief for stocks,” Beauchamp stated.
“This week’s Alphabet numbers were a sign that investors are still very skittish about the vast spending plans of the hyperscalers, and with this earnings season taking place against a backdrop of military strikes, the inclination remains to keep derisking as the summer goes on.”
4.19pm: Next week’s outcomes – AstraZeneca, GSK, Lloyds, BAE, IAG, Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon
London and European blue chips are surging as the week comes to an finish, with oil costs on the wane. Brent is down to beneath $96 now, from over $100 earlier.
Across the pond, the Nasdaq has clawed its method again into the inexperienced too, simply above parity.
This comes after reviews that Pakistan and Iran had been exploring a path to renewed talks with the US as a part of a China-backed diplomatic initiative.
Time to look forward to subsequent week, as we will probably be getting outcomes from over a dozen FTSE 100 corporations, together with among the index’s greatest, together with a variety of intently adopted mid-caps.
The week kicks off with AstraZeneca’s half-year outcomes, with traders probably to deal with drug gross sales, its growth pipeline and any affect from proposed US pharmaceutical tariffs. There’s additionally quarterly updates anticipated from Vodafone and Cranswick.
Tuesday sees Unilever, ITV, Unite Group and Canal+ publish half-year figures, whereas Games Workshop reviews annual outcomes.
Unilever will probably be watched for proof that volumes stay resilient as it raises costs to offset greater commodity and supply-chain prices. In the US, Coca-Cola and Visa report quarterly outcomes.
On Wednesday we hear from GSK, Rio Tinto and Lancashire Holdings.
Midweek additionally brings US huge tech, with Microsoft and Meta dealing with stress to reveal tangible returns from heavy AI funding, with Procter & Gamble and Arm additionally reporting.
Another huge occasion for Wednesday is the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate resolution, which comes as fee expectations mount on the again of resurgent oil costs.
It’s the Bank of England’s go on Thursday, although no change to charges is predicted.
Also on Thursday, the FTSE’s huge banks additionally start reporting, with Lloyds Bank and Standard Chartered main a busy UK session alongside BAE Systems, Rentokil, LSEG, Mondi, Drax and Hammerson.
Lloyds traders will search readability on its £1.95 billion motor finance provision, future capital returns and new medium-term targets.
More Mag 7 earnings throughout the pond too, with Apple and Amazon reporting, alongside key PCE inflation information and jobless claims numbers.
Rounding out the week will not be quiet, with IAG, Intertek, NatWest, Taylor Wimpey and Rightmove delivering half-year outcomes.
In the US, there will probably be quarterly updates from AbbVie and Chevron.
3.38pm: BP ‘close to’ deal to offload photo voltaic unit
BP is in superior talks to promote its Lightsource photo voltaic enterprise to a Kuwait-backed consortium, the FT is reporting.
Boss Meg O’Neill is continuous her predecessor’s efforts to simplify operations and refocus on oil and fuel.
The FT says the consortium consists of Wren House, an arm of the Kuwait Investment Authority, as nicely as personal fairness agency Qualitas Energy.
3.26pm: Flying taxis could also be ‘discovering a route to viability’
Farnborough air present is being held this week, the place a number of electrical vertical take-off and touchdown (eVOTL) plane designers have been demonstrating their wares, together with three New York listed names: Vertical Aerospace, Archer Aviation and Beta Technologies.
As nicely as demonstrating how its eVOTL plane will function in actual world environments, Vertical Aerospace additionally introduced “advanced discussions” with the UK authorities on assist to anchor first full-scale manufacturing amenities together with a grant of up to £10 million.
Vertical can be main the £3.4 million UK-backed ECLiPSE programme to develop next-generation charging and thermal administration applied sciences for electrical plane.
Elsewhere, the Financial Times says eVTOL builders are shifting past the flying-taxi dream in the direction of army, cargo and regional transport makes use of which will provide a faster “route to economic viability”.
Filing from Farnborough, the FT report notes that Archer Aviation unveiled a helicopter-style strike drone with US defence group Anduril on the present, whereas Beta Technologies offered a cargo drone for army use.
Regional flights may present one other market, the article says, notably as 90% of Americans and half of Europeans dwell inside half-hour of a smaller airport. Hybrid plane, combining electrical take-off with typical flight, may additionally cut back the necessity for costly charging infrastructure, it was prompt.
Regulatory cooperation is enhancing, with US guidelines permitting some revenue-generating trials earlier than full certification.
The know-how stays costly, nonetheless, seen by way of Archer and Joby Aviation burning by means of greater than $3 billion between them since floating in 2021, though analysts imagine each have sufficient funding to function for a number of extra years.
Some early movers might subsequently “be able to survive to see their technologies take off”.
2.50pm: Mixed open in New York
It’s one other blended open on Wall Street, with the Dow including 175 factors, or 0.3%, and the S&P 500 edging 0.1% greater.
The Nasdaq began down 0.3% as know-how shares appear to be extending yesterday’s selloff, with Charter Communications sliding 6% after earnings, whereas different fallers embody SanDisk, Micron, Marvell, Western Digital and Lumentum all down over 3%.
American Express has dropped 4.8%, the most important Dow faller, however Verizon tops the leaderboard with a 3.5% achieve, adopted by Salesforce and IBM.
Back in London, the FTSE has picked up steam, up over 70 factors now.
1.37pm: FTSE lagging European features
European markets are usually in a constructive mode immediately, regardless of the tariff malarkey, which was not a shock anyway.
The FTSE’s 0.35% achieve compares to a 0.6% rise for the pan-continental Stoxx 600, with all main regional indices in constructive territory.
Spain’s IBEX leads the advance with a 1% rise, whereas Germany’s DAX is up 0.9% and Milan has added 0.7%.
The DAX is being led by software program group SAP, which has jumped 6.5% after its present cloud backlog rose 27% to €22.9 billion, serving to ease considerations in regards to the resilience of its cloud enterprise within the AI period.
Volkswagen has fallen 1.5% after reporting a pointy revenue decline and warning that income may fall by as a lot as 3% this yr amid weaker gross sales in China.
Wise is without doubt one of the greatest fallers on the Stoxx 600, down 6.5% following the rejection of its US banking constitution software.
1.16pm: Wall St preview
Wall Street is about for a tentative recovery, after the earlier session’s know-how selloff wiped roughly $800 billion from the market worth of the so-called Magnificent Seven giants.
Dow Jones futures are up 0.4%, whereas the S&P 500 is predicted to add 0.2% and Nasdaq futures are broadly flat, having surrendered an earlier achieve of round 0.25%.
In firm information, Intel shares are up 3% in premarket buying and selling after beating second-quarter expectations and issuing a stronger outlook.
American Express inventory is down 2.3% regardless of an earnings beat, whereas Verizon is down 1.3% and NextPeriod Energy has slipped 0.7% following their very own quarterly updates.
Elsewhere, a senior Korean official stated Samsung and SK Hynix are anticipated to announce “very large-scale” contracts with main US know-how corporations throughout President Lee Jae-myung’s go to to Silicon Valley, which begins immediately.
12.19pm: Gains chipped away
The FTSE is slipping again in the direction of flat as we transfer into the afternoon half of the session.
Falls for BP and Shell of 1.7% and 1.3% are weighing on the index, with Brent crude front-month futures having dropped from over $101 within the early hours to beneath $97 up to now hour. Currently the value stands at $97.75.
The bond market could be having an affect, as yields had been falling this morning, however have began to inch greater once more.
“Government borrowing costs are up around the globe, piling pressure on overstretched budgets just as Europe looks to ramp up defence spending, while the chances of a Fed rate hike this year build by the day. Another summer of volatility appears to lie ahead,” says market analyst Chris Beauchamp at IG.
Biggest falls on the index are at Airtel Africa, Howden Joiner, BT and Rentokil. At the opposite finish, the leaderboard is led by retailer JD Sports, up 3%, adopted by 3i Group, whose foremost funding is retailer Action.
Some ideas on President Trump’s new spherical of tariffs (see earlier), efficient immediately on 60 nations, overlaying over 99% of US items imports and supposedly made to undertake and implement laws to ban “forced labour” imports, the White House stated.
“Special tariff regimes for cars, steel and aluminium are unaffected,” notes John Wyn-Evans at Rathbones, and so there isn’t any “double stacking” of tariffs.
With the UK and EU topic to the ten% fee, he notes that the tariffs “do not represent an accusation that the UK and EU, for example, are employing forced labour, more that they and others are taking insufficient measures to ensure that their own imports are not from countries that do”.
Wyn-Evans factors to analysis from the Yale Budget Lab that calculates the typical statutory tariff fee stood at 12.1%, so if Trump’s earlier expiring tariffs not been changed, they might have fallen to 9.8% on the finish of this yr.
“Now the speed will probably be 12.8%. The burden will, as soon as once more, largely fall on US customers and importers, though there will probably be minimal affect on year-on-year inflation.
“Market response has subsequently been restricted, though it is tough to disaggregate the results from the re-escalation of hostilities within the Middle East and the continued debate in regards to the profitability and period of AI-related funding.
“Trade policy and tariffs continue to be a convenient stick which the President will continue to use to express his ire, however impractical.”
11.51am: Consumer confidence
Analyst David Hughest at Shore Capital has welcomed an increase within the GfK client confidence index to its highest since January.
This got here out in a single day, with GfK assigning the improved temper to a trifecta of things, these being the FIFA World Cup, de-escalation within the Middle East and optimism a few change in Government.
“Now, the football is over and the ceasefire in ME looks to have been short lived but at least at the time of writing Burnham remains the Prime Minister so the question becomes how long the “Burnham Bounce” will be sustained,” says Hughes.
As ever, the GfK comes on the identical day as ONS retail gross sales, which confirmed sturdy development of seven% in worth phrases and 5% in quantity phrases.
Within the Gfk determine, Hughest sees essentially the most important actions in customers’ views on the UK economic system, each for the earlier 12 months and for the upcoming 12 months, and within the main buy index, up eight factors to -12, “an encouraging sign for bigger-ticket retailers such as DFS and Wickes”.
Less progress was seen in customers’ views of their very own funds and, with expectations of rising inflation within the second half of the yr due to the present rise in oil and fuel costs, “this likely means we will continue to see price-conscious behaviour and trading down as key features of the retail sector”.
Overall, whereas the GfK and ONS figures are an encouraging signal for an “uncertain” retail sector, the renewed Gulf tensions may imply “part of this improvement is short-lived”.
11.17am: Gas costs up as Europe struggles to refill storage
UK pure fuel costs have climbed again above 151p per therm this week, shut to their highest ranges of the Iran battle, after having fallen beneath 100p late final month.
UBS analyst Nayoung Kim says tanker visitors carrying liquid pure fuel by means of the Strait of Hormuz had been “virtually absent in both directions”, whereas Qatar’s extension of power majeure till mid-October was “heightening concerns over supply risks beyond summer”.
European and Asian consumers are competing for obtainable cargoes, supporting world LNG costs. Meanwhile, EU storage was solely 54% full on 21 July, in contrast with 65% final yr and a seasonal common of 70%. In distinction, the US is in a extra comfy place, with storage 71% full.
Weekly injections, ie the quantity of fuel added to underground storage amenities through the week, slowed to 1.6 billion cubic metres from 1.9 billion, as LNG imports fell 4% from the earlier week and 27% yr on yr.
UBS forecasts storage will attain 75% by the top of October, however Kim warns that the present injection fee would depart it at simply 72% – beneath the earlier decade low of 77%.
10.39am: Sizeable geopolitical dangers
Brent crude has climbed again above $100 a barrel due to threats towards power infrastructure and rising instability round key delivery routes, says market analyst Daniela Hathorn at Capital.com, which has “rebuilt a sizeable geopolitical risk premium into oil markets”.
Disruption is now being seen within the Red Sea, with assaults on industrial vessels compounding considerations over world commerce and power safety.
“Combined with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the developments have reinforced the view that geopolitical risks are unlikely to fade anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks elevated.”
This is making the image advanced for central banks, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan selections due subsequent week.
US weekly jobless claims falling to their lowest degree since 1969, reinforces the view that “the labour market remains remarkably resilient despite elevated interest rates”, she says.
“Strong employment continues to support consumer spending and the broader economy, but it also gives the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to keep policy restrictive if inflationary pressures persist.”
Corporate earnings have offered one other take a look at for traders, Hathorn says, with blended outcomes from the primary Big Tech corporations.
“With AI remaining the dominant investment theme, markets are becoming increasingly selective, rewarding strong execution while showing less tolerance for elevated spending without a clear path to returns.”
10.14am: PMI hints at underlying UK development
The flash PMI “provides the first tentative indication that GDP growth can continue to rise at a healthy clip in Q3”, says Rob Wood at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
He estimates that the PMI for July in isolation is in line with quarter-to-quarter GDP development of 0.2%, consistent with his forecast.
“That said, the composite PMI is being supported by precautionary stockbuilding amongst manufacturers, and the survey window closed on July 22nd, so some of the recent jump in oil prices will not be captured in the flash release.”
That stated, the enhancing forward-looking parts of the PMI recommend “the positive momentum seen in the headline activity indices could be maintained”.
“Stronger exercise pipelines led corporations to increase the hiring intentions in accordance to the PMI, with the employment steadiness ticking up to 48.2, from 46.8. That sub-index is in line with payrolls dropping by 9K month-to-month in July, although the PMI has been too downbeat on jobs currently, so we expect the change within the PMI represents a greater sign than the extent.
Wood says the MPC at its assembly subsequent week “will be encouraged by a fall in the PMI’s price balances”, with the providers output value steadiness additionally ticking down, although he says the PMI has been sending an excessively sturdy sign on underlying providers inflation lately.
9.47am: Flash PMI improves
The ‘flash’ UK composite PMI rose to 52.1 in July from 49.3 in June, above the consensus estimate of 49.8.
Services climbed above the mark that separates enlargement from contraction, rising to 51.8 from 48.8, above the 49.4 anticipated.
The manufacturing PMI additionally rose, hitting 52.8 from 52.5, above the consensus forecast of 52.0.
The output index, which is used with the providers PMI to give the composite studying, rose to 53.6 from 52.6.
Firms boosted hiring intentions, with the employment steadiness ticking up to 48.2 from 46.8.
Data had been collected between July 9 and 22.
Chris Williamson at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which carries out the survey, stated this optimism in regards to the yr forward adopted the diminished geopolitical tensions through the survey interval and the related drop in oil costs.
“But with Middle East worries flaring up again in recent days, a sustained cooling in the price data and upturn in business confidence is by no means assured.”
The hospitality sector loved a lift to demand from good climate, the World Cup and extra home holidays, Williamson stated, with excessive prices and uncertainty persevering with to deter some international journey.
“However, overall services growth remained lacklustre amid cost-of-living pressures.”
On inflation, he stated value pressures cooled thanks to the decrease oil costs seen through the first half of the month.
“However, inflationary pressures clearly remain elevated, as the ongoing energy shock and supply squeeze from the war in the Middle East continues to add to existing business cost pressures from earlier government policies.”
Higher prices had been probably to have contributed to an extra fall in employment, which Williamson famous has declined constantly for the reason that Autumn 2024 Budget.
9.25am: More morning movers
Renishaw PLC (LSE:RSW) jumped 8% after the precision engineering group stated full-year earnings would beat market expectations following a file fourth quarter. Strong demand from semiconductor, electronics, aerospace and defence prospects helped drive a 27% rise in quarterly income. Analysts stated the corporate has successfully “jumped a year ahead” of earlier earnings forecasts. Read more
discoverIE Group PLC (LSE:DSCV) jumped 12.5% after the personalized electronics maker stated full-year earnings are monitoring forward of expectations. Strong order development drove optimism, with natural orders up 31% within the first quarter and gross sales rising 6%. Recent acquisitions additionally carried out nicely, serving to reinforce confidence within the group’s development plans. Read more
AOTI Inc (AIM:AOTI) jumped 29% after the wound-care specialist stated proposed Medicare protection may broaden its TWO2 remedy market alternative 65-fold to round US$26 billion. The transfer follows plans to cowl topical oxygen remedy for hard-to-heal diabetic foot ulcers, doubtlessly opening entry to tens of millions extra sufferers and supporting wider insurance coverage reimbursement. Read more
Arc Minerals Limited (AIM:ARCM, OTC:ACMNF, FRA:DFYA) gained 6% after its Virgo copper challenge in Botswana revealed an 18-kilometre geological contact forward of drilling. The expanded construction, recognized by means of geophysical surveying, hosts a number of promising anomalies and is close to main discoveries at Khoemacau. Drilling is predicted to start in early August. Read more
Wise Group PLC (LSE:WISE, NASDAQ:WSE) fell 9% after the funds agency stated US regulators had rejected its software for a nationwide belief financial institution constitution. The firm stated the choice doesn’t have an effect on its present US operations, with current cash transmitter licences nonetheless in place. Wise added it plans to submit a revised software reflecting its development and regulatory progress. Read more
8.55am: FTSE 100 holds up
The FTSE 100 is holding onto its early features, now up 29 factors at 10,668.55, regardless of unfavorable sentiment within the tech sector and that resurgent oil value.
Other European markets are additionally faring nicely, with the Paris market up 0.2% and Frankfurt rallying 0.6%.
Asia hasn’t been so fortunate, although, with Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 falling 2.7%, Shanghai’s SSE Composite down 1.6% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong shedding simply over 1%.
The tech-heavy Kospi in Seoul has slumped 5.7%, pushed by the sharp in a single day correction in US equities and escalating geopolitical tensions within the Middle East.
“Markets are ending the week with the worst possible pairing: an AI de-rating and an oil shock,” commented Tickmill Group’s Patrick Munnelly. “The technology selloff has gathered pace as investors question whether the returns on AI capex can justify the spending surge, while Brent’s move through $100/bbl has revived the inflation scare and pushed central-bank pricing back in a hawkish direction.”
8.15am: Footsie defies weaker sentiment
The FTSE 100 opened decrease however shortly retraced its losses to commerce greater 20 minutes into Friday buying and selling.
London’s blue-chip index is presently 25 factors up at 10,664.36, defying expectations for a 40-point decine on the open.
Software group The Sage Group PLC (LSE:SGE) led the gainers, including 1.7%, whereas Pershing Square Holdings (LSE:PSH) and RELX PLC (LSE:REL) each added 1.5%.
On the draw back, Airtel Africa PLC (LSE:AAF) slid 2.7%, Standard Chartered PLC (LSE:STAN) fell 1.8% and Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) misplaced 1.6%.
Surprisingly, maybe, BP PLC (LSE:BP.) and Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) are each down round 1% regardless of Brent crude topping $100 a barrel for the primary time in months. Both have had an excellent week although as oil began its climb.
8am: Retail gross sales heat up
UK retail gross sales rebounded in June, with the quantity of products purchased rising 1% from May, in accordance to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The enchancment adopted a stable May and helped elevate gross sales volumes by 0.6% throughout the second quarter in contrast with the primary three months of the yr.
Retailers pointed to heat climate and seasonal promotions as key drivers of stronger spending. Non-store retailers loved elevated demand for out of doors merchandise, sports activities gear, clothes, followers and air-con, whereas outfitters recorded their greatest month-to-month gross sales improve since September 2025. Department shops and pc and telecoms retailers additionally carried out nicely.
Online buying continued to achieve momentum, with on-line spending rising 2.8% through the month and accounting for 29.4% of whole retail gross sales, the very best share since April 2021.
Fuel gross sales, nonetheless, remained subdued after motorists had stocked up earlier within the yr, with retailers additionally citing greater costs and fewer journeys as elements weighing on demand.
7.50am: Trump’s tariff wall is again
President Donald Trump has dusted off his tariff playbook, with a brand new spherical of import duties taking impact on round 60 buying and selling companions after a brief set of levies expired.
The new Section 301 tariffs vary from 10% to 12.5%. The UK, EU, Canada and India have landed within the 10% bracket, whereas China, Japan and South Korea face the upper fee. The White House says the tariffs are designed to stress buying and selling companions to tighten guidelines on compelled labour in provide chains.
The transfer follows February’s Supreme Court ruling that knocked out an earlier wave of tariffs, forcing the administration to discover a extra legally strong route. Mission achieved.
As Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid famous, the end result was “largely in line with what was signalled” after final month’s investigations into compelled labour practices. For markets, the newest chapter in Trump’s commerce agenda is unlikely to be the final, with tariffs as soon as once more turning into a central characteristic of US financial coverage.
7.35am: Brent again in triple digits
Brent crude is again above the psychologically essential $100 a barrel degree as mounting geopolitical tensions within the Middle East gas considerations over potential provide disruptions, reinforcing an already tight world oil market.
The rally comes as traders weigh the danger that any escalation may have an effect on key export routes or manufacturing from the area, which accounts for a big share of world crude provide. Those considerations have been amplified by OPEC+’s continued manufacturing restraint, leaving the market with restricted spare capability to take up additional shocks.
Strong seasonal demand has additionally supported costs, with summer time journey and resilient consumption offsetting considerations about slower world financial development.
The return to triple-digit oil costs has broader implications for monetary markets. Higher power prices threat prolonging inflationary pressures, doubtlessly complicating the path in the direction of decrease rates of interest in main economies. While the transfer is supportive for oil producers and power equities, it raises recent questions over the outlook for customers, company margins and central financial institution coverage ought to elevated costs persist.
“With nerves in regards to the potential inflationary affect of the escalating battle within the Middle East colliding with worries about hovering tech capex, it’s been powerful to discover the optimism, even when London markets loved a continued increase from huge oil and defence shares as traders regulate to the altering political and geopolitical landscapes,” commented AJ Bell’s Danni Hewson. “It’s worth remembering that at the start of the month the price was hovering around $70 a barrel and markets had dared to hope that central bankers might be able to seamlessly shift from a pause to further cuts.”
FTSE 100 Live pre-open
London appears to be like set to open within the pink on Friday, with tech promoting and oil topping $100 a barrel combining to darken the temper heading into the weekend.
Futures merchants have the FTSE 100 referred to as 40 factors decrease, constructing on Thursday’s 77-point decline to 10,639. The blue-chip index faces stress from two instructions: a pointy Wall Street sell-off pushed by disappointing Big Tech earnings, and recent geopolitical anxiousness within the Middle East pushing oil costs to triple figures for the primary time in months.
US shares fell closely in a single day, with the Nasdaq main the way in which down 2.2% as traders took a dim view of quarterly outcomes from Alphabet and Tesla. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, its worst session of the month, whereas the Dow shed 1%.
The downside wasn’t the earnings themselves, in accordance to Swissquote’s Ipek Ozkardeskaya; it was the spending. “Earnings themselves were not the problem; spending and evaporating free cash flow were,” she stated. “Both Alphabet and Tesla stood by their capital investment plans, while Alphabet raised its capex outlook by $15 billion to $205 billion. Meanwhile, free cash flow at both Alphabet and Tesla turned negative in the second quarter.”
Ozkardeskaya warned that Big Tech, as soon as outlined by being capital-light and cash-heavy, is turning into the other: more and more reliant on fairness and debt issuance to finance AI ambitions at a time when rate of interest expectations are shifting greater.
