In the previous, Europe has relied on the Middle East for about 75% of its jet fuel imports, the IEA famous.
At the second, European nations are scrambling to switch provides from the Gulf with imports from elsewhere. Analysts say that is coming from the US and Nigeria.
The IEA stated there had been a speedy acceleration in US jet fuel exports in current weeks.
However, it warned in its report that even when these shipments have been all destined for Europe, they might solely exchange a bit over half of the misplaced provides.
Analysing totally different situations, it stated that if Europe was unable to switch greater than 50% of its Middle Eastern imports, “physical shortages may emerge at select airports, resulting in flight cancellations, and demand destruction”.
If three-quarters of provides might be changed, the identical scenario may nonetheless come up, however not till August.
“Consequently, for now, it would appear that European markets will need to work harder to attract further replacement cargoes from elsewhere if sufficient inventory is to be maintained over the summer months,” it stated.
Amaar Khan, head of European jet fuel pricing at Argus Media, believes that even when provides from the Gulf resume within the close to future, there may nonetheless be shortages within the run-up to the summer time journey peak.
“It’s not a certainty, but still, it’s looking more and more likely that there will be a shortage of some extent in some areas of Europe.
“Of course, someplace like Heathrow might be going to be prioritized over different smaller airports, or smaller demand hubs. But sure, even when that provide does come on, it can take 5 to six weeks,” he stated.
